What's Frank Thinking? rss
Charles Kuralt we ain't

 

Wednesday, April 23, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA
 
"My gosh, my golly, how can gasoline be a dollar a gallon?" We remember the early 1980s when our mom said something like that, and we can also look back at good-old regular gasoline at the "Can we check under the hood" gas stations being about .30 cents when we first got our driver's license in 1967. Those were the days when you got your windshield washed and oil checked - all for the cost of .30 cents a gallon! Although those were also the days when you could buy a brand new Ford (F*) Mustang for under $2,000 - now closer to $35,000 for a 2014 GT. 
 
We have been taking a round-trip drive across the country almost every year since 1969 and have therefore seen a great deal in the way of inflation, not to mention the unbelievable growth in this wonderful country. The over 2,000 mile trek used to consist of parts of Route 66 through some of the states - pre Interstates 40 and 44. The trips were at-first taken to deliver us to-and-from Tempe, Arizona, from Lincolnwood, Illinios, while attending Arizona State, but were continued in the mid-1980s when we added some real estate in both Arizona and Wisconsin. The stories from our dozens of drives across the US are innumerable, and our life has been enrichened because of our annual cross country journeys. 
 
This year's drive from Arizona to Wisconsin will begin this Friday morning as we head up the hill to our first coffee and petrol stop in Flagstaff. A Marriot (MAR*), after a steak at The Big Texan in Amarillo will be our first overnight. Thanks to our one remaining little dog, Romeo, needing several stops, and our Yukon XL's (GM*) tendency to drink gasoline, the breaks along the way will be many. We have collected data on the drive almost every year. Yes, even in college we were interested in the prices of everything from a blown Volkswagon engine replacement and Twinkies in Clinton, Oklahoma (long story), to the dramatic difference in people, motels, and restaurants from state-to-state and town-to-town. One of our main interests on the trip is always the price of gasoline, and it has varied almost every year, with the cheapest usually being somewhere just west of St. Louis, Missiouri, and the costliest around Chicago. 
 
We will take a few Big Rig Index (BRIX) samples, when we count the amount of trucks vs cars along I 40, and make note of the restaurant and Starbucks (SBUX) traffic in our 2 1/2 day trip for our Fun Index (FIX). Both of these personal indexes have been tracked for decades, and have been a pretty good barometer of how the overall economy is doing. We won't stop at any casinos along the way, but will certainly shake-our-heads when we note the jam-packed parking lots at any time of the day. The Magnuson Grand Hotel and Conference Center just south of Springfield, Illinois, will be our last overnight; the bar and restaurant, including a massive antique paddle boat sitting in the barside pond, are always a treat. Almost every year there are a few hard working farmers at the bar, adjacent to the indoor pool, and their weather/crop/hardship stories are always made note of, with a possible commodity futures trade in the immediate aftermath.
 
Have a great weekend, and if you see a low-flying GMC Yukon along one of the East/West Interstates, give us a wave. 
 
"You travel too much, FHW." "We only leave Chicago to get away from you!" -- GUR and FHW (OEX pit circa 1988) 
 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink 
or on Linkedin (LNKD) - remember the upcoming Market Drives are in DC in May and Chicago in June -  go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive for more info and to sign up.
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com  
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/23/2014 8:33:31 AM | 0 Comments
Earnings by the dozen...

 

April 22, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
- If you are anywhere on the East Coast on Saturday, May 3rd, there will be a Market Drive in Washington, DC, at the Downtown Renaissance Washington. To sign up for what will be another fabulous event - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive
- The eminis futures - or what we refer to as the SPUs (/ESM4*), after bouncing between 1825 - 1860 the last couple of weeks, made it up over 1865 on Monday, and are trading just above that number as of this writing. We mentioned a possible pull back last week, but from the 4/15 low of 1825, they have done nothing but uptick! Yes, we will eventually have a drop-off, but from where and when? Gosh, if we only knew! The bonds (/ZBM4) have lost a little ground, but are still trading near the 134 mark. Natural Gas (/NGK4) is also trading just slightly higher, while oil (/CLM4) is down this morning - back under 103 after getting up to almost 105. Gold was 1292 last week and is still trading in that just under 1300 range. The soft commodities corn (/ZCK4), wheat (/ZWK4) and beans (/ZSK4) have all been cut severely, but are trading slightly higher in today's early hours. 
- Facebook (FB*) is pointing to a higher opening, while Apple (AAPL*) looks a little lower, but with AAPL's and FB's numbers coming tomorrow, be careful with any weekly positions. Harley-Davidson (HOG) reported better numbers, and looks about $5 higher this morning - of course we should have seen that with our friend Amber B. now in their Milwaukee based Marketing Department. Our 2,000 mile long drive begins on Friday morning (4/25), so look for some anecdotal evidence next week as to the true health of the US economy, as our stops along the way will include interviews with real working class folks, and some data collecting for our Fun (FIX) and BigRig (BRIX) indexes.  
 
- Today's economic events:
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Redbook Chain Store Sales
FHFA House Price Index
Existing Home Sales
Richmond Fed Mfg.
Results of $32B, 2-Year Note Auction
 
Notable earnings before Tuesday's open: ACI*, AKS, AOS, ATI, BK, CMCSA, CNC, CP, CSL, FMER, GPC, HOG, HUB.B, IPG, ITW, JNS, LMT, LPT, LXK, MCD, MDSO, MTG, OMC, PCH, PHG, PLD, PNR, RF, SAH, SNV, SPG, TCB, TRV, UTX, XRX;
and scheduled after today's close: ACC, AMGN, BCR, CBST, CNI, CREE*, CVA, CYT, DFS, ETH, FBC, FTI, FULT, GILD, HA, HLIT, HTS, IEX, IGT, ILMN, IRBT, ISRG, JNPR, MANH, MSA, NBR, PKG, SANM, SKX, SMCI, SWKS, T, TMK, TSS, UIS, VASC, VMI, VMW, WRB, WWD, XOOM, YUM, ZIXI.
More earnings on Wednesday: BA, CLF, DAL*, DOW, FB*, PG, QCOM, TXN, ZNGA. 
 
"On the road again, just can't wait to get on the road again.." -- Willie Nelson 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
And come join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - 10:30 - 1:30 Central time.
Information and to sign up for an upcoming Market Drive event (next one is in Washington, DC on May 3rd) - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/22/2014 9:02:44 AM | 0 Comments
Do we run with Nike?

 

Monday, April 21, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA  
 
It is the week of our trek to Rhinelander, and as most of you know, the long drive (2,200 miles if we go through Chicago), will be completed over a weekend. We usually don't make the drive until after the Las Vegas Money Show in May, but that was also because we had to delay our departure until the heir-to-the-mortgage's Prescott high school year ended. Well, he is now up in Portland studying and playing golf at Warner-Pacific College, so we can thankfully spend more time at our Northwood's summer home. The young heir-to-the-mortgage will be arriving after his first year, all-full of college stories, from the classroom to his golf team, the tales will be told. Playing college golf in Oregon is a lot different that what he was used to in Arizona, but he made the adjustments and had a good freshman year, and his academics were outstanding. Of course being located in Oregon, all of the team equipment was provided by Nike (NKE), and that also took some getting used to. 
 
As to Nike; for such a relatively young firm, the company has an interesting history, with founder Phil Knight still at the firm, and the company's famous "Swoosh" logo seemingly enblazoned over the entire state of Oregon. Initially called Blue Ribbon Sports, Knight combined with Oregon track coach Bill Bowerman by selling Japanese-made Tiger track shoes; improving on them, and selling their shoes out of the trunk of Knight's green Plymouth Valiant. The name Nike and some of their own branded shoes came about in the early 1970s, after fellow-runner Jeff Johnson became the company's first employee in 1965. Oregon track legend Steve Prefontaine jumped-in as Nike's first major endorsment success, and the company's growth began to explode. Their Initial Public Offering (IPO) took place in 1980; signing NBA superstar Michael Jordon in 1985, and the Nike "Air" brand, along with dual sports superstar, Bo Jackson and the "Bo Knows" commercials, made Nike a huge player in not only the shoe business but from head-to-toe in just about anything sports/fitness related.
 
We haven't had an apparel outfit, retailer, or athletic company stock/options position in a long time, and with Nike's stock hovering near the $74 mark, after having been about $80 a month ago, we aren't quite sure about a long stock position. Having gone from selling 300 pairs of Tiger shoes to their 2015 goal of $30 billion in revenue is quite a business boom, and we do have several Nike products in our closets. There is a small dividend and there is plenty of open interest and daily options trade, along with relatively narrow penny-wide bid/ask spreads. So we will keep our eyes on the stock, and we will soon hear some up-close-and-personal Nike sports golf/apparel stories from the young heir, that will also help us make the investment decision. 
 
"A few years ago there was a poll in China to name the greatest man ever. The winner was Mao, but there was a tie for second between Zhou Enlai and Michael Jordan of 
 
the Chicago Red Oxen!”--Phil Knight 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink ; Like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD)
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/21/2014 8:44:19 AM | 0 Comments
Maundy Thursday expiration...

 

Thursday, 04/10/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA
  
-  The SPUs (/ESM4*), as of this writing, are trading around 1856, just off last Thursday morning's price of 1863. IBM and GOOG came in weaker than expected and the stocks got whacked in the after market - who cares! War could be breaking out in Ukraine - who cares! The SPUs traded down much of the night - touching 147.25, and the under 1850 alert caused us to short another, but these are against an overall long stock portfolio - so who cares! Oil (/CLK4) has been clinging to the 103 level, just as Nat Gas (/NGK4) has been 4.50, while the soft commodities have been showing weakness. Gold (/GCM4) has been all over the place in the last two weeks (1285 - 1322), but was stuck near 1300 much of Wednesday, and is still just over that 1300 level. The bonds (/ZBM4) were over 135 overnight, and are trading just under that key level as of this writing. As Hugo the Abominable Snowman would say "Which way do we go George, which way do we go?" We have no idea, our long the market short a few SPUs has worked well, and cutting back the long deltas over the last couple of months has cut the risk. But do we know where the biggest upcoming move will be, not a chance! At these historically high levels, however, the greatest amount of risk has to be to the downside. Even if we do continue higher, can we get to 1900? 2000? Possibly, but it sure feels a little bloated right here, and 1800 or 1750 would probably be a good thing in the long-run. But our crystal ball has never worked, nor does anyone else's! 
- Facebook (FB*), Delta (DAL*), and Apple (AAPL*) look higher, but IBM and GOOG look lower - although they have rallied from their overnight lows. The AM settled indices will "settle" this morning, because of the Good Friday Holiday, the cycle's last trades were on Wednesday's close. Today is the last day of trade in the April monthly equity and ETF contracts, so if you have any In-The-Moneys (ITMs) and don't understand any expiration consequences call the trade desk at 866-839-1100. 
 
Another big day in news events:
Initial Jobless Claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Philly Fed Business Outlook
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
Notable earnings before Maundy Thursday's open: ADS, ALSN, AN, BAX, BBT, BHI, BLK, BX, CMG, COL, CY, DD, DOV, FCFS, FCS, FHN, FITB, GE, GS, HLSS, HON, KEY, MAT, MS, ORB, PEP, PM, PPG, PVTB, SAP, SHW, SLB, SNA, SON, SYNT, TSM, TZOO, UNH, UNP, WBS, WIT, WSO;
and after the close: ACTG, AMD*, ASBC, ATHN, CPHD, SCSS.
 
"Those have a short Lent, who owe money to be paid at Easter." - Benjamin Franklin
 
Have a happy, healthy and peaceful long weekend. 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD)
The next Market Drive events will be in Washington DC in May and Chicago in June - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/17/2014 9:02:39 AM | 0 Comments
Two years? Nothing has changed?

 

Wednesday, April 16, 2014, Prescott, AZ., USA
 
This is an incredibly accurate blog - what is really amazing is that is a reprint from almost exactly two years ago!  
 
"Sorry - total brain cramp / hump day. Could it be the Mid-week blues? The fact that we recently sent in the corporate tax checks? Or because we will soon be doing the same for the personal year-end tax junk? What is (are) the reason(s) for our brainless plight. Maybe the markets are making us mad? Wow, that was some serious alliteration. If we can cleverly construct a sentence with the same consonant sound or sound group to be so alliterative, why the brain cramp worries? And that isn't it anyway, as we are actually having a banner year! It is, after all, one of our favorite days of the week, Hump Day, and because of the recent market movement (mostly higher), our short-term positions look pretty good and our long-termers look great. In fact many of both our shorts and longs are looking quite dandy! How can that be? It is called "PREMIUM" and despite the fact that the VIX has been trading at such low levels for such an extended period, the "juice" wasn't too bad, especially when oftentimes legging into straddles and strangles on relatively large swings. 
We constantly stress the importance of the longer term goal of attempting to gather enough short term premium to end up with a fantastic yearly return, and even with the VIX in the doldrums, it can still be done. When you have options sold on both sides of the market on over 40 different underlyings (now only 27), some in ratios against stock, a few verticals, and some naked, the positive theta really starts to add up. But wait-a-second, we thought we were having a brain cramp? It must be the thought of eroding option premium dancing in our heads that shook out the cobwebs."
 
"Premium is premium, just sell it and shut-up!" -- RQ to GUR - OEX pit circa 1987 
 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink 
or on Linkedin (LNKD) - remember the upcoming Market Drives are in DC in May and Chicago in June -  
go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive for more info and to sign up.
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com  
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/16/2014 8:54:21 AM | 0 Comments
TAX DAY - Passover, Easter and monthly expiration

 

TAX DAY, 2014, Portland, Oregon, USA, 
 
- The eminis futures - or what we refer to as the SPUs (/ESM4*), after bouncing between 1825 - 1860 last week are still in the 1829 range, so in spite of all the bragging by the bears, no big deal to the downside - at least not yet! And, once again, even if they do crack the important 1800 level to the downside, we must remember where they were a year ago - 1500! The very same SPUs were in the 1100 range in 2011, the only reason we recall that is we had to look back to that year just yesterday to find some stock purchases for our Chicago based accountant - who is still not happy with us, especially being away from our desk at tax time! However, after more than doubling since 2009, along with the weakness out of China, and all kinds of worrisome events around the world, don't be surprised if we do have a some short-term overall market set-backs. The bonds (/ZBM4) are still hovering around 134'12, breaking and staying over the 131 - 134 rut they have been in for weeks. Natural Gas (/NGK4) is also trading a few ticks over its price point of last week (4.58), and gold (/GCM4), which was over 1350 about a month ago, and was trading near 1315 last week, is being severely beaten down this morning - now in the 1292 handle, down some 34 bucks! Oil (/CLK4) was near 101 last week, but the Russian/Ukraine tensions had run it up to over 104, and it is lower this morning by almost a dollar - down to 103.11.
- Facebook (FB*) and Apple (AAPL*) look slightly higher this morning, as does Coca-Cola (KO), which announced Q1 EPS of 44 cents, at the consensus, with Q1 revenue of $10.58 billion was higher than the estimates of $10.55 billion. Google (GOOG) is also pointing higher as Jeffries kept its "Buy" rating in place and raised its price target on the stock to $700 from $650.
-  Not only is it TAX DAY but Passover begain yesterday at sundown, and the Jewish holiday celebrating the Exodus of the ancient Israelis from Egypt will have an eight-day run. This is also April monthly expiration week, but it ends with the Christian Good Friday holiday, so expiration is a day early, if you have any questions that need fast action in reference to any stock/option/futures/forex position - call the trade desk at 866 839 1100.  
 
- Today's economic events:
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Consumer Price Index
Empire State Mfg Survey
Redbook Chain Store Sales
Treasury International Capital
Business Inventories
NAHB Housing Market Index
 
Notable earnings before the opening: CMA, INFY, JNJ, KO, NTRS;
and after today's close: ADTN, CSX, IBKR, INTC, LLTC, YHOO.
 
“And Moses spake unto the children of Israel, that they should keep the passover.” -- The Bible
"Do not abandon yourselves to despair. We are the Easter people and hallelujah is our song.”-- Pope John Paul ll
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
And come join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - 10:30 - 1:30 Central time.
Information and to sign up for an upcoming Market Drive event (next one is in Washington, DC on May 3rd) - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/15/2014 8:58:36 AM | 0 Comments
TAX DAY - Passover, Easter and monthly expiration

 

TAX DAY, 2014, Portland, Oregon, USA, 
 
- The eminis futures - or what we refer to as the SPUs (/ESM4*), after bouncing between 1825 - 1860 last week are still in the 1829 range, so in spite of all the bragging by the bears, no big deal to the downside - at least not yet! And, once again, even if they do crack the important 1800 level to the downside, we must remember where they were a year ago - 1500! The very same SPUs were in the 1100 range in 2011, the only reason we recall that is we had to look back to that year just yesterday to find some stock purchases for our Chicago based accountant - who is still not happy with us, especially being away from our desk at tax time! However, after more than doubling since 2009, along with the weakness out of China, and all kinds of worrisome events around the world, don't be surprised if we do have a some short-term overall market set-backs. The bonds (/ZBM4) are still hovering around 134'12, breaking and staying over the 131 - 134 rut they have been in for weeks. Natural Gas (/NGK4) is also trading a few ticks over its price point of last week (4.58), and gold (/GCM4), which was over 1350 about a month ago, and was trading near 1315 last week, is being severely beaten down this morning - now in the 1292 handle, down some 34 bucks! Oil (/CLK4) was near 101 last week, but the Russian/Ukraine tensions had run it up to over 104, and it is lower this morning by almost a dollar - down to 103.11.
- Facebook (FB*) and Apple (AAPL*) look slightly higher this morning, as does Coca-Cola (KO), which announced Q1 EPS of 44 cents, at the consensus, with Q1 revenue of $10.58 billion was higher than the estimates of $10.55 billion. Google (GOOG) is also pointing higher as Jeffries kept its "Buy" rating in place and raised its price target on the stock to $700 from $650.
-  Not only is it TAX DAY but Passover begain yesterday at sundown, and the Jewish holiday celebrating the Exodus of the ancient Israelis from Egypt will have an eight-day run. This is also April monthly expiration week, but it ends with the Christian Good Friday holiday, so expiration is a day early, if you have any questions that need fast action in reference to any stock/option/futures/forex position - call the trade desk at 866 839 1100.  
 
- Today's economic events:
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Consumer Price Index
Empire State Mfg Survey
Redbook Chain Store Sales
Treasury International Capital
Business Inventories
NAHB Housing Market Index
 
Notable earnings before the opening: CMA, INFY, JNJ, KO, NTRS;
and after today's close: ADTN, CSX, IBKR, INTC, LLTC, YHOO.
 
“And Moses spake unto the children of Israel, that they should keep the passover.” -- The Bible
"Do not abandon yourselves to despair. We are the Easter people and hallelujah is our song.”-- Pope John Paul ll
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
And come join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - 10:30 - 1:30 Central time.
Information and to sign up for an upcoming Market Drive event (next one is in Washington, DC on May 3rd) - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/15/2014 8:58:29 AM | 0 Comments
The Apostles and expiration?

 

Monday, April 14, 2014, Portland, Oregon, USA 
 
Yesterday was Palm Sunday, which means this is the final week of Lent for the Roman Catholic community - whew! And, with this Friday being Good Friday, that means the April monthly expiration day will be the day before, or Maundy (Holy) Thursday for equities and Wednesday/Thursday for many indices. So, as the long-ago Last Supper was being hosted (no pun intended) by the Apostles, this year's last supper, for team FHW, will include a quiet dinner at home in Prescott while dozens of April options expire. Not to mention enjoying some chocolate after making that this year's Lenten give-up! 
 
No, we won't be washing any feet or offering "alms" in the form of Maundy money in red and white purses, as they still do in the United Kingdom, but we will be preparing for Good Friday's and Easter Sunday's end-to-Lent. Although we did survive another meat-free Friday Lenten season, we also didn't eat any McDonald's (MCD) Filet-O-Fish sandwiches. Huh? What does that awful fast food fish have to do with Good Friday? Well, it was Pope Paul Vl, who relaxed the Catholic church's meat fasting rules in the 1960s, but a few years prior to that an enterprising McDonald's franchise owner located in a mostly Catholic section of Cincinnati, who, when struggling to sell burgers on Fridays, decided to try a specialty fried fish sandwich - hence the now extremely popular Filet-O-Fish! 
 
Whew, we go from the Last Supper and Apostles, to King Henry's son Edward Vl's reinstating, in 1547, "fast days by law" in the United Kingdom, to a McDonald's Filet-O-Fish, all in a couple of paragraphs! THAT could be a new personal best! We have had a great few days in Portland, and it's a good thing it is the end of Lent and April monthly options expiration, because we clearly need a little meat, chocolate AND some rest! 
 
If you don't understand any of the ramifications from this week's day-early expiration - CALL THE TRADE DESK @ 866 839 1100. 
 
"It's Lent you heathen, you have to eat fish on Friday. Besides the fried fish sandwich at Broker's Inn is world class." -- LDK (CBOE trading floor circa 1979) 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD)
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/14/2014 9:04:42 AM | 0 Comments
Thursday - on the road again...

 

Thursday, 04/10/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA
  
-  The SPUs (/ESM4*), as of this writing, are trading around 1864, off slightly from yesterday's close, but still relatively close to all time highs and that big 1900 that so many have been talking about.  Oil (/CLK4) had slipped back under the 100 point, but some Russian worries sent it over 103 on Wednesday, and it is trading at 103.30 in the early morning hours, while Nat Gas (/NGK4) is still in the 4.50 area, where it has been for over a month. Gold was trading down to 1285 last Thursday but has ralled and is up strong again this morning - trading near 1320. The bonds (/ZBM4) were trading near 134 two weeks ago, and after dropping a couple points are now right back in that 133 - 134 range. 
- Facebook (FB*) has been on a major run higher, after dipping to $55 just a few days ago, looks to open over $63 today. Next week is FINALLY April monthly expiration, and although it will have been a long five week cycle, it will end on an odd note. The Good Friday Easter holiday means the equities will expire on Thursday (Maundy Thursday) and the futures that commonly close on Thursday with a Friday morning settlement, will next week end the cycles trading on Wednesday with a Thursday morning settlement. If you don't understand any expiration consequences call the trade desk at 866-839-1100. 
- It's a travel day for us, as we are spending the day at a Scottsdale Marriott (MAR*) before our afternoon flight to visit the heir-to-the-mortgage at his college in Portland, Oregon. We will be staying in downtown Portland at the full-blown Marriott, hence the * after the stock symbol - TRADE WHAT YOU KNOW AND KNOW WHAT YOU TRADE, we are a firm believer in that old phrase. We are also beginning to wonder if there will ever be a marketplace where you can trade "points" in the various travel outfits that dole them out. We can see it now, trying to make a market in some derivative Southwest Airlines (LUV) "rewards" vs Marriott "points" pairs trade. 
 
Another big day in news events:
Chain Store Sales
Initial Jobless Claims
Import/Export Prices
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Fed's Evans: "Central Banking After the Great Recession"
Results of $13B, 30-Year Note Auction
Treasury Budget
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
Notable earnings before Thursday's open: CBSH, FDO, IGTE, PIR, RAD, SJR, TITN;
and after today's close: NQ
 
"There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it.”-- Oscar Wilde
 
Have a great weekend. 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD)
The next Market Drive events will be in Washington DC in May and Chicago in June - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/10/2014 9:04:42 AM | 0 Comments
$2,000 doorstop?

 

Wednesday, April 9, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA
 
Our never ending metals saga...
 
-- From April of 2004:
One of our first "investments" in gold was in our wild and crazy college years, thanks to a small inheritance, we bought our first home and our first Krugerands. These coins, however, weren't the first gold that we had purchased, as we grew up a numismatist that had started buying and collecting coins at an early age. Much of what we learned in respect to collecting coins and the precious metals was in the 1960s, from a wise old man, Jim, at Archie's Coin Shop on the North Side of Chicago (Edgebrook). One of our elderly mentor's favorite sayings was "As thick as Bretton Woods." At the time, we had absolutely no idea what old Jim was referring to, but we soon found out. 
-- From late 2008: 
It looks to be a very merry Christmas for us gold bugs, as our favorite precious metal has become even more precious, with the December contract bumping right up against $700 this morning. Silver at 10.00 is looking pretty shiny this morning as well. Can gold get to $1500? How about silver to twenty bucks? Geeze, it seems to us like the rally began in March when we were pleading with friends and customers alike to go long.
-- From August 9, 2011: 
Gold futures (/GC) have made one of their most dramatic weekly moves in history, by going from last week's $1,600 to it's overnight high of over $1,782 - now up almost $300 in the last month! So, yes, we have been a gold bug, numismatist, whatever you want to call it, for over 50 years. We remember thinking about selling some of our gold coins when we were leaving for college (it was about $50 an ounce), but thankfully our wise mother said, "just hold onto it, and let me know when you run out of money." We did run out of college "play money" but thanks to mom never sold any of our gold, and hopefully when the heir-to-the-mortgage leaves for college in just over a year, we won't sell any of it then either! Not unlike many of our equity positions, the short-term up-tick in volatility shouldn't shake you out, as it does many typical retail customers. As long as you continue to deal with a company or feel strongly about a certain stock, future, commodity or whatever, don't let the talking head nay-sayers change your mind. The analyst and supposed experts may, after all, have a vested interest ON THE OTHER SIDE!
-- From now:
Yes, we are still long the metals in all shapes and forms, even have some stock/options positions in a few metal related companies, over 3.7 million shares in one - long story. Time is still the most important element in long-term investing, and metals might sometimes become slightly "tarnished" but over-time they have always shined. Besides, the metals are an inflation hedge, fun to collect, and as Tommy Sosnoff once said, "a nice-sized bar makes a good door stop or wedding present." And, looking back to what we said in 2008 with gold at $700 about it possibly going to $1,500, as well as silver to $20 - well, just sayin'...
  
"The only real valuable thing is intuition." -- Albert Einstein 
 
"Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people." -- W. C. Fields 
 
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FHW 
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What's Frank Thinking? | 4/9/2014 10:07:52 AM | 0 Comments