What's Frank Thinking? rss
"One of these days, Alice..."

 

Thursday, 2/26/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
- Today's birthdays: Victor Hugo (1802); "Buffalo Bill" Cody (1846); John Kellogg (1852); Herbert Henry Dow (1866); Jackie Gleason (1916); "Fats" Domino(1928); Johnny Cash (1932). Deaths: Lou Costello (1959). On 2/26/1919 the US Congress established Grand Canyon and Acadia National Parks in Arizona and Maine. Hitler introduced Ferdinand Porsche's Volkswagen on this day in 1936, and in 1962 the US Supreme Court disallowed race seperation on public transportation. Gold hit a record $188 an ounce on Feb. 26, 1974, and trader Nick Leeson's losses caused the collapse of London's Barings Bank in 1995.
- Most markets were relatively unchanged Wednesday despite Federal Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s congressional testimony. (S&P 500 -0.08%, Dow +0.08%, NASDAQ -0.02%). The Dow Jones, however, closed at a record high of 18,224.57, with General Electric (GE +2.05%, nice job JJ!) and McDonald’s (MCD +3.87%) leading the way. The Energy Information Admin. (EIA) said weekly crude inventories increased more than expected, up 8.4 million barrels, but crude-oil futures (/CLJ5*) rose 3.47% to $50.99, and are currently bouncing around 50.00. Small-cap stocks were also flat on Wednesday with the Russell 2000 (RUT +0.09%). The VIX rose 1.17% to 13.85. The amazing treasury markets continued their almost unabated run on Wednesday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen reiterated the central bank’s "patience"in raising near-term interest rates. The 30-year Treasury (/ZBM5*) yield fell to 2.57%, and the 10-year (/ZNM5) dropped to 1.97%.
 - Today's possible movers: BBRY*, CZR*, FB*, NEM*, PBR*, KSS, CRI, LB, LNKD, RJET*.
 - Another HUGE day for economic events and earnings:
Consumer Price Index
Initial Jobless Claims
Durable Goods
FHFA House Price Index
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
Results of $29B, 7-Year Note Auction
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
- Notable earnings before the open: ACIW, ACTA, AES, AKRX, AMCX, AMWD, ANSS, ARCC, BDBD, BIN, BUD, CCG, CHS, CNP, CNSL, CRI, CWEI, CYBX, DDD, EME, EXH, EXLP, FCH, FIG, FRO, GCAP, GOGO, HAWK, HEES, HSC, HSNI, ICON, IQNT, IRDM, ITC, KOP, KSS, LKQ, LPI, LTM, MBLY, MDXG, MGLN, MITL, MRGE, NTI, NTLS, NXST, NXTM, OGE, ONE, RHP, SDRL*, SEAS, SFY, SHLD, SNAK, SNH, SNMX, SRE, SRPT, TASR, TD, TICC, TWI, VAC, VC, VICL, WAC, WNR, XCRA, ZEUS;
and after today's close: ABTL, ADSK, AEGR, AHT, AIRM, AL, APEI, ARUN, AVD, BCEI, BIO, BLOX, CERS, CLNE, CROX, CSU, CUBE, DGI, ECOL, ECPG, ENOC, ENV, EVC, EVHC, GPS, HLF, HPTX, IM, IMMR, JCP, KBR, KND, LYV, MAIN, MDRX, MENT, MITT, MNST, MTZ, MVNR, NMBL, NOG, NVAX, OLED, OUT, OVTI, PE, PEGA, PFMT, PKT, PODD, PSIX, RBA, RMTI, ROST, RP, RPTP, RRMS, SB, SBAC, SEMG, SGM, SPLK, SRC, SREV, SWN, SZYM, TPC, TUBE, TUMI, TWOU, UHS, UIL, UNXL, VGR, WIFI, WTR, WTW.
 
- If you are looking for a fabulous full-day of stock/options/futures education, please visit www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive - sign up for one of the upcoming Saturday events. The next shows are in Portland, OR., Detroit, Philadelphia, Chicago, and New York. 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD). And also look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CDT. Anyone without a TDAmeritrade (AMTD*) account can open a PaperMoney account - go to www.thinkorswim.com  
 
"How sweet it is." "One of these days, Alice. Pow! Right in the kisser!" -- Jackie Gleason 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 2/26/2015 7:59:49 AM | 0 Comments
Now is the best time to trade in history!

 

 
Wednesday, February 25th, 2015, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
Where the heck did February go? This Saturday is the final day of this short month; which was made shorter by the President's day holiday and Ground Hog Day; all while hosting a five-week expiration cycle, a Friday the thirteenth, and the 64h anniversary of our birth. It also included the World Money Show in Orlando, a few days in Chicago, and will end in New York at the Trader's Expo. Squeezing all of that in 28 days wasn't easy, and when you consider the 100 degree temperature swings (from 75 in Orlando to - 25 in Rhinelander), it really wasn't much fun either. Add into all of that the fact that we are now in the 64 "handle", several flight delays, snow storms, smelly cab drivers, and flights full of sniffling and sneezing kids, things are starting to get troublesome. In fact, we are feeling the dastardly effects in our head and chest in the form of a dreadful cold - which oftentimes turns into pneumonia. 
 
However, sick-or-not, we remember a high school coach who constantly said "triumphs over troubles is what makes winners", and we think the year 2015's problematic and challenging month of February had more wins than losses. And that was the same coach, by the way, who also threatened making us walk home, from a South Side away game to our north side high school, if we fumbled the football. Thankfully we got to ride the bus home, and learned more than a few of life's lessons from that grizzled old gridiron grouch! Now that we are darned-near social security it seems that certain events of decades ago more easily come to mind than last year's occurrences, or even last week! It's a great thing, in fact, for some old timers, that the thinkorswim platform has OnDemand and a lot of other capabilities to help traders look back-in-time and out into the future. Some of us who have been in the game for almost 40 years don't necessarily put all of the amazing platform tools to work, and it might just be too late to teach this old dog these new tricks. 
 
If the younger you haven't gone up to the Help Tab's Learning Center to take the site's tutorials and use the incredible, world's best trading platform's outrageously intuitive trading tools, it is your loss. The daily Swim Lesson chat room, the online Plunge,and the free educational events all over the country should also be attented. One of the main reasons AMTD* has such a great retail customer retention rate is because the platform was designed and built by old floor traders AND brilliant programmers, coders, and tech geeks all working on the same goals. The new self-directed retail customer now has more capabilities, speed, knowledge, and free fundamentals and analysis than at any time in history. If you add in the lowest transaction costs, tightest bid/ask spreads and the best overall market liquidity of all time, the "triumphs over troubles" should at least be on an uptick! 
 
"Was that an uptick or a practical delusion?" -- GUR (OEX pit circa 1988)
 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD). The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - with the next show in Portland, OR on March 14th - hope to see you there. We will be at the New York Traders Expo at the end of the week. And also look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CDT. 
Anyone without a TDAmeritrade (AMTD*) account can open a PaperMoney account - go to www.thinkorswim.com 
 
FHW 
fhwoption@hotmail.com
(* = FHW position)
What's Frank Thinking? | 2/25/2015 8:14:20 AM | 0 Comments
Big News and Earnings Tuesday

 

Tuesday, 2/24/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Today's Birthdays: Honus Wagner (1874); Admiral Chester Nimitz (1885); Abe Vigoda (1921); Steven Jobs (1955); Floyd Mayweather (1977). Deaths: Malcolm Forbes (1990); Tony Conigliaro (1990); and Henny Youngman (1998). Remember the Alamo - today was the day the Mexican army attacked the Texans at San Antonio's Alamo Mission in 1821, and the Arizona Territory was created in 1863. On 2/24/1983 the Dow Jones closed over 1100 for the 1st time, then it hit a record 4011.74 on this day in 1995. 
- It seems like only yesterday we were wondering if SPX 1500 would hold - actually it was exactly two years ago (2013), then last year it was whether it would hold 1800, then 1900 a few months later, then 2000 a few months after that. 2014 was obviously quite a year for the longs! Now will 2100 hold? Gosh, was it really 1000 in 2010? It could have something to do with our old age setting in, but yes, it still seems like only yesterday! 
- Stocks were slightly weaker on Monday, with energy shares dropping with falling oil prices, even though oil (/CLJ5*) raised it's head over 50.00 for a brief moment in the middle of the day - other than that it was a relatively boring day as everyone seemed to be waiting for the Fed to speak this morning (S&P 500 -0.03%, Dow -0.13%, NASDAQ +0.10%). Dividend paying utilities and health care outfits outperformed, while teleco and major industrials trailed the broader indices. The small-cap stocks closed massively unchanged: Russell 2000 RUT - 0%). The VIX rose 1.82% to 14.56. The SPUs are continuing to hang over 2100 - currently trading about unchanged at 2107. Gold (/GCJ5*) is lower - just under 1,200, with silver (/SIJ5) remaining bifurcated - trading higher at 16.33. The grains (/ZC, /ZW, /ZS) are all up slightly. 
- Between earnings and news announcements, today and the rest of the week will be almost completely news driven. Remember with all of the numbers and dividends soon to come to pay particular attention to any short in-the-money (ITM) calls, and if you don't know the stock/cash ramifications CALL THE TRADE DESK @ 866 839 1100 or ask on Live Support found under the Support/Chat Tab on top right.
- Today's economic events:
Redbook Chain Store Sales
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
PMI Services Index Flash
Consumer Confidence
Richmond Fed Mfg.
State Street Investor Confidence Index
Yellen delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony
Results of $26B, 2-Year Note Auction
 
- Notable earnings before the opening: AIXG, ALKS, AMT, BMO, CBRL, CEQP, CLDT, CLDX, CMCSA, CMLP, COT, CRNT, CRZO, CYRN, DAKT, DCI, DPZ, DRH, DYAX, ECL, EXAS, EXLS, EXPD, FDML, GLDD, GTLS, HD, IART, IPXL, M, MNKD, NEO, ODP, PCRX, PF, PLL, RLGY, SAFM, SAH, SHLX, SHOO, SPAR, SPWR, SUI, THRM, TOL, TREX, TRXC, UTHR, VAL, VSI, WEN, WIN, WLK, WPC, ZINC; 
and after today's close: ACAS, AMRS, ARC, AWAY, AWK, BBRG, BGFV, BNFT, BOOM, CBI, CENX, CLGX, CLR, CPRT, DPM, DWA, DY, DYN, EIX, EPR, EXEL, FLTX, FMI, FSLR, GB, GNMK, HEI, HEP, HLS, HPQ, HURN, HWAY, INFI, JAZZ, KONA, KRA, LC, MATX, MMSI, NDSN, NFX, NKTR, NLY*, NSTG, NUVA, NYMT, ORA, PZZA, QEP, RJET*, RLYP, RRC, RUBI, SAM, SGY, SLCA, SM, TNDM, TRNX, TXTR, VRSK, VVUS, WBMD, XCO, Y, ZAGG . 
 
"If you're going to do something tonight that you'll be sorry for tomorrow morning, sleep late." - Henny Youngman
 
Remember to sign into the daily live Swim Lesson - found up on the Support/Chat tab, running between 10:30 - noon CT. We will be at the Trader's Expo in New York at the end of the week (2/28 - 3/2). For more info on the shows including a list of events go to www.moneyshow.com. The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - with the next show in Portland, OR on March 14th - hope to see you there. 
If you are not a TD Ameritrade / thinkorswim (AMTD*) customer you can open a PaperMoney account at www.thinkorswim.com 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 2/24/2015 7:40:21 AM | 0 Comments
Frigid Forestry? Yes, in Rhinelander!

 

 
Another frigid Monday, February 23, 2015, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA (currently a -40 wind chill)
 
A reprint from a few years ago - yes, we still have quite a few positions in PCL*, but have been out of Wausau Paper (WPP) for some time.
 
"As we perused the real estate sales in our local Rhinelander newspaper's online site this morning we noted the sale of some 40-acre parcels by Plum Creek Timber (PCL*). We have had positions in Wausau Paper (WPP*) for years, as we like trading stocks and options on regional firms that we have some relationship with, and WPP is a big outfit up in our Northwood's of Wisconsin. Although we can't call Plum Creek a regional firm, because they are actually the largest and most geographically diverse private landowner in the United States. We do, however, like the firm and remember successfully trading it years ago, somewhere down here in the low-30 range.  
So, how much land does PCL own in Wisconsin? Did the few Oneida County trades matter? We have personally watched the clearing of several 40-acre parcels in our area, and were flabergasted at the speed in which the trees were cut, trimmed, stacked and removed. Plum Creek owns over 197,000 acres of Wisconsin forestland, though, so clearing that would take quite some time and effort, but it sure would be fun to watch! 
Wait a second. Did we just say 197,000 acres? As they would say up in Rhinelander, "ya heh der, Olie, dat's a lot of trees." But, when you consider the company plants about 800,000 seedlings a year in Wisconsin alone, with some 60 million being planted nationwide, on approximately 6.8 million acres, we can't see the company ever running low on product. As to product, PCL obviously cares about the price of lumber (random length lumber /LBS), and being such a large landowner, they must also pay attention to real estate prices and taxes. Wisconsin has a great Managed Forest program which allows landowners (present company included) to support the various outdoor recreational activities that many of our Wisconsin friends and neighbors enjoy. By dedicating open access to approximately 98% of their land for hunting, fishing, hiking, snowmobiling, and other sports, Plum Creek benefits in huge Wisconsin real estate tax savings. While partnering with dozens of Midwest forest products contractors in Wisconsin's second biggest industry (dairy is #1), PCL's timber eventually finds itself in an inumerable amount of wood products. 
Anything from medical products and popsicle sticks, to NBA arena floors and violins, the Wisconsin trees provide more than just shade and housing for the area's wildlife. Plum Creek is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), with over 1,200 employees. The shares currently pay about a 4.66% dividend with enough option open interest and daily trade to make small positions very possible. We are currently short some November 35 puts, as those were the puts with the delta that we commonly look for (35 to 45ish), and the large amount of open interest also perked our interest. Whether we are put the stock (at 35 minus 1.40 or 33.60) or the options drop to a point where they can either be rolled or covered successfully, we don't really care (our nickel closing bid is already in GTC). But, it looks like the near-the-money rolls (calendars) trade for about a buck a month, so, once again, we don't care if put or covered or rolled, in any event, in positions that we are totally comfortable in holding or adjusting. We will make that decision in a couple of weeks. For now, all we can think about is seeing a million or so acres of forestland being cleared with a few million new trees being planted - that would really be a show!"  
 
"Death is a low chemical trick played on everybody except sequoia trees." -- Anonymouse
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time. We will also be at the New York Trader's Expo at the end of this week (2/28 - 3/2) - hope to see all of our East Coast friends there.
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 2/23/2015 7:10:51 AM | 0 Comments
Happy birthday Copernicus.

 

Thursday, 2/19/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
- Today's birthdays: Nicolaus Copernicus (1473), Eddie Arcaro (1916), "Mama" Cass Elliot (1943), Prince Andrew (1960), Seal (1963). It was on this day in 1878 that Thomas Edison patented the gramophone, and in 1906 W K Kellogg & Charles Brolin incorporated the Battle Creek Toasted Corn Flake Company. The US 5th Fleet (30,000 Marines) invaded Iwo Jima on 2/19/1945, and Cherry Coke was introduced in 1985.
- The SPUs (/ESH5*) have had about a 10 handle swing overnight, which seems sedate after the last few weeks of middle of the night thinkorswim alerts lighting up my cell phone. The emini futures are now trading near 2092, and the 2100 number still holds up untouched at the top. Will they trade over before tomorrow's February monthly expiration and close over? THAT is the question. Oil (/CLJ5*) was in the 44 range two weeks ago, ran up to almost 55, but is back to testing 50 on the downside at this early morning hour. Gold (/GCJ5*) is higher this morning - after testing 1300 last week and falling under 1200 yesterday, the yellow metal is currently trading at 1220 - up about 20 bucks. Bonds (/ZBH5*) are lower again this morning, after trading as high as 151 a few days ago, they have de-coupled with the markets and sold off to their current 144'15 area. What's next for the 30s - back down to 140 or back up to 150? Perhaps the Fed will decide. 
 - Today's possible movers: SCTY, SUNE*, PCLN, XOM*, HAL, HRL, WMB. 
 - Another big day for economic events and earnings:
Initial Jobless Claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Philly Fed Business Outlook
Leading Indicators
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
EIA Petroleum Inventories
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
- Notable earnings before the open: ACTA, AGI, ANIP, ARIA, ATRO, AYR, BBW, BCC, BLMN, BRC, CBB, CCC, CLI, CVI, CVRR, DAN, DAVE, DISCA, DNR, DTV, DWRE, FCN, FUN, GEL, GG, HII, HRL, HST, IDA, IDCC, IMAX, IRC, LINE, LPLA, LXP, MTRN, NBL, NM, PCLN, PDCE, PDCO, PWR, RS, SCG, SGNT, SYNT, TK, TTC, UAN, UPL, VNDA, WMT*, WST; and after today's close: ACTG, AHS, ANET, AUQ, BAS, BEAT, BLDR, BRCD, BRKR, CYH, ED, EGO, EQIX, EXR, FNGN, FPO, FR, FRGI, FTR, FUEL, GEN, HY, INAP, INTU, IPCM, JWN, MHK, MRC, MRVL, NDLS, NEM, PSA, ROVI, SAAS, SEM, SPN, SPNC, SSRI, TEP, TRMR, TSRO, WIRE, WRE, XNPT, TRU .
- Current prices (7:00 am Central time):
E-mini S&P Futures  2,091.50  (-0.19%)  
E-mini DOW Futures  17,970  (-0.13%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  4,387.00  (+0.02%)  
US Dollar Index  94.369  (+0.18%)  
Crude Oil  50.09  (-3.93%)  
 
"To know that we know what we know, and to know that we do not know what we do not know, that is true knowledge." - Copernicus
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink- like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD). You can also find us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room (10:30 - noon CST). We will also be at the New York Trader's Expo at the end of the month. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
 
What's Frank Thinking? | 2/19/2015 8:32:06 AM | 0 Comments
An AAPL a day?

 

Wednesday, February 18, 2015, Chicago, Illinois, USA 
 
Apple, apple, apple...not since the Garden of Eden has an apple (AAPL*) been so relevant! We aren't talking an apple a day, but had you been buying one share of AAPL a day since the company was founded you would now be a za-zillionaire! What exactly is a za-zillionaire? Well, the stock price has risen almost 24,000% from it's first day of trading and is now almost twice the size, in market cap, of Microsoft (MSFT*) and Exxon Mobil (XOM*). Apple Computer has been generating billion dollar revenues for more than a decade. Throughout its long, sometimes bumpy ride, Apple has continuously proven itself to be a pioneering force in the tech industry. There was a period, however, in the early nineties, when Steve Jobs was absent, that the firm had a lull in relevant products and stock price. 
 
Apple now has over 80,000 workers, and that is even after Tesla (TSLA) continues to raid their employee list. Workers at Apple's world headquarters earn an average of $125,000 annually, and with the company earning about $300,000 per minute, they can afford to pay their executives very well. Yes, we have owned a very small amount of stock for quite some time, gladly we didn't sell our's early like the co-founder did when he sold all of his stock for $800! Had he held on until today he would have amassed an AAPL fortune of over $35 billion! In the first quarter of 2014, AAPL earned more than Google (GOOG), Facebook (FB*), and Amazon (AMZN) combined! Apple also has more operating cash than the U.S. Treasury, could literally buy a good percentage of companies in the S&P 500, and the entire Russian stock market! 
 
Have you taken advantage of this company's incredible moves? 62% of the stock is owned by Institutions and Mutual Funds, with The Vanguard Group of funds owning over 327 million shares, and State Street Funds owning another 242 million shares. The largest individual shareholder is company Chairman, Arthur Levinson, with over 1.1 million shares, and Tim Cook has about 950,000 shares. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) also owns about 65 million shares. Gosh, just think of hedging those numbers! Even if you don't own any stock in your personal accounts, the next time you get a quarterly statement from your funds it might be wise to notice how many shares of which you are the proud owner. That always makes good conversation at cocktail parties!
 
"Why join the navy if you can be a pirate." -- Steve Jobs 
 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD) 
We will be at the New York Traders Expo at the end of the month. And also look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CDT. Anyone without a TDAmeritrade (AMTD*) account can open a PaperMoney account - go to www.thinkorswim.com 
 
FHW 
fhwoption@hotmail.com
(* = FHW position)
What's Frank Thinking? | 2/18/2015 8:38:31 AM | 0 Comments
Tuesday Tidbits - 1st day in the 64 handle!

 

Tuesday, 2/17/15, Chicago, Illinois, USA 
 
- Today's Birthdays: William Cadbury (1867), Yasser Arafat (1929), Gene Pitney (194`), Huey Lewis (1942), Michael Jordan (1963).
- Stocks rallied Friday, with energy stocks higher on rising oil prices. (S&P 500 +0.41%, Dow +0.26%, NASDAQ +0.75%). The S&P 500 closed at a record high of 2,096.99. Caterpillar (CAT +1.92%) and Microsoft (MSFT* +1.81%) led the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher. Groupon (GRPN* +6.84%) reported a 20% rise in fourth-quarter revenue. Crude futures for April delivery (/CLJ5* - note the flip from March "H5" to April "J5*) are currently trading near 53, just about where the March's were last week, but have traded in both the 52 and 54 handle overnight. The 30-year bonds (/ZBH5*) had been over 150 for weeks, but have downticked over the last several sessions and are now trading right on 145, actually dipping into the 144 handle overnight. The metals are lower and the grains are higher. 
- Today's possible stock movers and shakers: CBS, CPB, AAPL*, COLM, SUNE*, HOT, KRFT, PBR*.
- Today's economic events:
Empire State Mfg Survey 
Housing Market Index 
E-Commerce Retail Sales 
3-Month Bill Auction 
6-Month Bill Auction
Charles Plosser Speaks 
Treasury International Capital 
 
- Notable earnings before the opening: ACC, AGIO, ALE, CRY, EXC, GPC, GT, LECO, MDT, MGM, MNTA, NHI, PES, QSR, TGH, TTS, USAC, VDSI, VNR, WLT, WM, WRI, WWW; 
and after today's close: A, ADI, AMC, ANAD, CF, CHE, CLD, DVN, ENPH, EQY, EXAC, FANG, FE, FLS, FOSL, HR, HTA, HTS, IPHS, JACK, KALU, KAR, LZB, MASI, NCLH, NP, O, OHI, OMI, PBPB, PEB, PEI, PHH, PLAB, RAIL, RAX, ROG, TEX, UCTT, VECO, VMI, VNO, VRNS, WTS, XEC, ZIXI. 
 
- Please remember to check your sheets for ITMs or anything close-to-the-money as there are a lot of underlyings about to announce earnings ans/or pay dividends and it is monthly expiration on Friday; if you dont know the cash and/or stock ramifications CALL THE TRADE DESK @ 866 839 1100, OR ASK ON LIVE SUPPORT. 
 
"Some people want it to happen, some wish it would happen, others make it happen." -- Michael Jordan 
 
Remember to sign into the daily live Swim Lesson - found up on the Support/Chat tab, running between 10:30 - noon CT. We will be at the Trader's Expo in New York at the end of the month. For more info on the shows including a list of events go to www.moneyshow.com. The list of upcoming Market Drive events will be posted soon on the TDAmeritrade web-site. 
If you are not a TD Ameritrade / thinkorswim (AMTD*) customer you can open a PaperMoney account at www.thinkorswim.com 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 2/17/2015 7:46:44 AM | 0 Comments
"Keep your hands inside the boat"

 

Thursday, 2/12/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
- Today's birthdays: John Winthrop (1588); Peter Cooper (1791); Charles Darwin (1809); Abraham Lincoln (1809); Lorne Greene (1915). Deaths: James Cash Penney (1971); Sal Mineo (1976). In 1873 the US Congress abolished bimetallism and authorized $1 and $3 coins, and on this day in 1924 George Gershwin's "Rhapsody in Blue" premiered at Carnegie Hall. On 2/12/1955 President Eisenhower sent the 1st US "advisors" to South Vietnam, and in 1998 Intel (INTC) unveiled it's 1st graphics chip, i740.
- The SPUs (/ESH5*) have had about a 20 handle swing overnight and are now trading up about 10, in the 2075 range, just 2 points from their overnight highs. In our old trading floor days "Keep your hands inside the boat" was a nutty saying by a CBOE OEX floor broker, it generally meant to watch for a bumpy intraday ride. Between today's Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, EIA NatGas (/NGH5) numbers and the results of the $16 billion 30-year bond auction, this could definitely be a day for the bold to scalp some futures, or for the common man to sit on his hands. Oil (/CLH5*) was in the 44 range last week at this time, but has traded higher ever since, and is now in the low 50 area. Gold (/GCH5) is relatively flat this morning - after testing 1300 last week, the yellow metal is currently trading at 1223. The US dollar (/DXH5) continues to hang up near highs of 95. Remember the markets are closed on Monday in celebration of President's Day and FHW's birthday, and it also February monthly expiration week, so act accordingly.
 - Today's possible movers: CSCO, WFM, BIDU, TSLA, TSO, CS, AAPL*,EMES*, BAC*, FB*, MSFT*, NVDA*, XOM*, CVX, APA. 
 - Another big day for economic events and earnings:
Initial Jobless Claims
Retail Sales
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Business Inventories
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Results of $16B, 30-Year Note Auction
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
- Notable earnings before the open: AAP, AAWW, AB, ACOR, ANR, APA, AVP, BG, BWA, CAB, CCE, COR, CPLA, CS, CVE, DBD, DPS, FAF, FLO, GNC, HE, HERO, HIMX, HSP, IFF, INCY, JAH, K, LMNS, LNCE, LPNT, MANU, MDWD, MFA, MFC, MHFI, MINI, MPEL, MPW, NCI, NLSN, NNN, NRP, NWE, PDS, PNK, Q, RDN, RTIX, RWLK, RYN, SCOR, SHPG, SKYW, SNI, SON, SPW, STC, THS, TIME, TU, VG, VNTV, WD, WSO, WWAV, WWE;
and after today's close: AEL, AIG, AIZ, ALNY, BCOR, BYD, CBS, CGNX, COLM, CUZ, CYBR, DLR, DVA, EGN, ELLI, GRPN*, INT, INWK, IRWD, JCOM, KING, KN, KRFT, LBTYA, LOGM, MGI, MOBL, MTSN, NR, PFIE, PRO, QLIK, RBCN, RGC, RSG, SFLY, SSNC, SSTK, TCO, TNGO, VLCCF*, VCRA, WAGE, WWWW, ZNGA.
- Current prices (7:00 am Central time):
E-mini S&P Futures  2,075.50  (+0.47%)  
E-mini DOW Futures  17,914  (+0.47%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  4,318.75  (+0.52%)  
US Dollar Index  94.634  (-0.37%)  
Crude Oil  50.38  (+3.15%) 
 
"If I had eight hours to chop down a tree, I'd spend six hours sharpening my ax." -- Abraham Lincoln
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink- like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD). You can also find us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room (10:30 - noon CST). We will also be at the New York Trader's Expo at the end of the month. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 2/12/2015 8:04:40 AM | 0 Comments
Greek Thales the 1st options trader?

 

Wednesday, February 11, 2015, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
Reprint from Feb. 2013:
 
Sorry for this morning's delay, but we are having technical problems with one of our laptops - the one by Hewlett Packard (HPQ) - perhaps it is time to short the stock? 
Stuck in the middle of a monthly expiration cycle is like being "stuck in the middle with you..." but that was a 1973 hit song by Steelers Wheel, having nothing to do with the markets or expiration cycles. As to expirations, when we started in this industry, there were only quarterly cycles, which made many facets of the game a lot different. And if that didn't make it difficult, imagine not having any puts to trade! Well, exchange traded puts also weren't "listed" when the first real options exchange (CBOE*) opened it's doors in 1973, and didn't hit the floor until about 1976. 
 
Yes, yes, yes, we have been around a long time, the experience has been wonderful, and most of the bruises have healed. But options, in some form, have been around for a very long time. Some think Thales of Miletus, a Greek philosopher, and one of the Seven Sages of Greece, may have actually made the first option trade. Thales, sometimes called the "Father of Science", might have been the first true mathematician, credited with the first use of deductive reasoning applied to geometry. It is fitting that a Greek math geek was the first option trader. Actually the first option trade had to do with oil presses, when Thales predicted the next olive season would be larger than usual, he acquired the rights (long calls) to use a large number of presses, and when the spring brought a huge harvest, Thales' long oil press calls paid off. 
 
Now that we think of it, Thales' long calls were more or less an option on a future, as they were looking out from fall to spring on the success of the olive harvest. We wonder if the Greek Thales of Miletus had considered the Greeks of his trade? What was the delta on his calls? How much theta was he giving up over time? Did the weather affect the olive market so as to alter the vega? Did the gamma pick up closer to harvest time? What about the rho? What were the interest rates back in ancient Greece? We bet they were higher than they are now! That reminds us, where are the 30s (/ZB*)? 
 
"It's all Greek to me." "Marty, everything is Greek to you." GUR and BAM (OEX pit circa 1988) 
 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD) 
We will be at the New York Traders Expo at the end of the month. And also look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CDT. Anyone without a TDAmeritrade (AMTD*) account can open a PaperMoney account - go to www.thinkorswim.com 
 
FHW 
fhwoption@hotmail.com
(* = FHW position)
What's Frank Thinking? | 2/11/2015 7:37:22 AM | 0 Comments
Bonds downtick / rates uptick? Fingers crossed!

 

Tuesday, 2/10/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Today's Birthdays: Jimmy Durante (1893); Lon Chaney, Jr. (1906); Mark Spitz (1950); Sharon Stone (1958). Deaths: Buddy the Wonder Dog (1992). Alanson Crane received a patent for the 1st fire extinguisher on this day in 1863, and twenty years later a fire at un-insured New Hall Hotel in Milwaukee killed 71 - obviously the extinguishers hadn't found their way to Wisconsin yet! On 2/10/1961 the AFLs Los Angeles Chargers moved to San Diego and the Niagara Falls hydroelectic project began producing power. Silver futures hit a record $4.81 in 1974 thanks mostly to the Hunt brothers. IBM's Deep Blue defeated chess champion Gary Kasparov on Feb. 10, 1996. 
- Stocks finished a relatively boring day slightly lower on Monday on concerns about Greece’s debt negotiations with its creditors. (S&P 500 -0.42%, Dow -0.53%, NASDAQ -0.39%). Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT -1.63%) and McDonald’s (MCD -1.35%) weighed down the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  Motorola Solutions (MSI) gained 4.83% on reports that the company is looking for a possible buyer. The VIX rose 7.29% to 18.55. Crude futures for March delivery (/CLH5*) which were trading in the low 51 handle at this time last week traded almost 54 yesterday, but faded to 51.86 overnight and are now trading just over 52.00. OPEC raised their expected demand number for 2015 expecting the lower prices to uptick demand. But will any possible higher demand be more than enough to overtake the major uptick in supply? Some are calling for oil in the $20 range this year, while others see it closer to $80 - that sounds like a pretty safe option strangle bet! The 30-year bonds (/ZBH5*) had been over 150 for weeks, but have downticked over the last few sessions and are now trading right on 147. Does this mean higher interest rates are in the offing? We have been saying for months that they sure couldn't go much lower and it might be good for the long term economy for some slow rate increases. The Treasury will sell $24 billion in 3-year notes today (2/10), $24 billion in 10-year notes tomorrow, and $16 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday(2/12).
- Today's possible stock movers and shakers: GS, CS, HSBC, C, CLN, QCOM, FB*.
- Today's economic events:
Redbook Chain Store Sales
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
Wholesale Trade
Results of $24B, 3-Year Note Auction
- Notable earnings before the opening:  ACM, ALLT, ALR, CDW, CVS, CYNO, DF, ENTG, GWR, HCP, HNT, HOT, IMN, KKR, KO, MLM, MWW, NILE, NSP, OMC, OUBS, PCG, RAI, REGN, SALE, SAVE, SEE, SFUN, TAP, TLM, WYN; and after today's close: ACGL, AKAM, ANDE, ATEN, BLKB, CAP, CERN, CRL, ELON, FRT, FTI, GHDX, GNW, HIW, JIVE, KGC, LOCK, MKTO, NCR, OHI, PAYC, PXD, RKUS, RLOC, RPXC, SCI, SGEN, SGMO, SKT, THOR, TMH, TRMB, TSRA, USNA, VSAT, WSH, WU, XOOM.
- Please remember to check your sheets for ITMs or anything close-to-the-money as there are a lot of underlyings about to announce earnings ans/or pay dividends and it is weekly expiration on Friday the thirteenth- if you dont know the cash and/or stock ramifications CALL THE TRADE DESK @ 866 839 1100, OR ASK ON LIVE SUPPORT. 
 
"Be nice to people on the way up because you will meet them on your way down." -- Jimmy Durante 
 
- Remember to sign into the daily live Swim Lesson - it is found up on the Support/Chat tab, and runs between 10:30 - noon CT. We will be at the Trader's Expo in New York at the end of the month. For more info on the shows including a list of events go to www.moneyshow.com. The list of upcoming Market Drive events will be posted soon on the TDAmeritrade web-site. If you are not a TD Ameritrade / thinkorswim (AMTD*) customer you can open a PaperMoney account at www.thinkorswim.com 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 2/10/2015 7:05:05 AM | 0 Comments