What's Frank Thinking? rss
Where do we go into 2015?

 

Tuesday, 8/26/14, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Today is the 238th day of 2014 and the 67th day of the summer. The 19th Amendment was formally adopted on 8/26/1920, granting women the right to vote. On this day, in 1957, the Soviet Union announced it had developed and successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). In 1968, thousands of protestors flooded the streets of Chicago, as the Democratic National Convention began - we were there among the throngs trying to avoid the club-swinging Chicago Police Department! 
- The 30-year bonds (/ZBU4) are now trading in the mid-139 range, about a point lower than last week, but back in the 138 - 140 range, even after getting close to 142 on 8/15. Oil (/CLV4*) is trading in the mid-93 range, about $1 lower than last week, and a full $8 lower than where light sweet crude was trading only a month ago. Once again, where are the downticks in the price at the pump? Gold(/GCZ4*) was trading back over 1300 last week, but has failed time-and-again over the last few days, now seemingly happy in the 1275 - 1295 range. Corn (/ZCZ4*) continues to trade flat to lower - still stuck in the 365 - 375 range. Where will the grains head into the upcoming harvest season? Does anyone remember that the emini (/ESU4*) SPUs were trading near 1890 a couple weeks ago -- August 8th? Did anyone sell puts near that level? 100 point SPUs swings intra-month are not that common. So, now do we sell calls? In the last 20 years or so, the largest S&P annual gain was 34.11% in 1995. At this relatively late point in 2014, and with the S&P up "only" 8%, we don't think either the 34% gain of '95 or the 38% drop of 2008 will be matched, but can we see another relatively major move in either direction? Will we see 2,200 or 1,800 by year's end? We just had a 100 point move in a couple weeks, so why not a 200 pointer before year's end? We are moving into the sometimes volatile Sept - Oct expiration cycles, and who knows what Thanksgiving and Christmas will bring. Will the turkey be stuffed with 1800 or Santa have 2200 in his bag? Is 2,000 a fade or do we follow the trend? All we know for now is that they saw 2,000 as the offer on Monday and just bumped 1999, so be careful. 
- Gosh, who'd have thought a year ago, we would see corn under 4.00; US drones over Syria; Russian tanks in Ukraine; and Warren Buffett helping avoid taxes via the Burger King/Tim Hortons deal? Just sit back, get your autumn gear ready, stay short both sides, with the ability to roll the one that's threatened, and before you know it the January 2015s will be the near-terms! 
- Possible stock movers and shakers: BBY and TECD - reported better; while SAFM came-in well below consensus. 
 
- Today's economic events:
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Durable Goods
Redbook Chain Store Sales
HFA House Price Index
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Consumer Confidence
State Street Investor Confidence Index
Richmond Fed Mfg.
Results of $29B, 2-Year Note Auction
 
Notable earnings before Tuesday's opening: BBY, BMO, BNS, DAKT, DSW, MOV, RGS, SAFM, TECD, TSL;
and after today's close: ADI, ARUN, BOBE, DY, GSM, HEI, NMBL, SLH, SWHC, TIVO.
 
"Take your news and shove-it! I'm selling everything." -- LDK (JNJ crowd during Tylenol scare of 1982)
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
Look for us at the upcoming Market Drive in Los Angeles in November and the Money Show in Las Vegas 11/19 - 11/21 - see ya there. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/26/2014 8:13:20 AM | 0 Comments
Earthquakes and thunderstorms!

 

Monday, August 25, 2014, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
It was great to see everyone at last week's trade show in San Francisco, and to survive the pretty scary, yet kind of cool earthquake. We got back on Sunday night only to find the Chicago Merc (CME) was having trouble opening the futures and an incredible thunder/lightning/rain storm in Rhinelander. Now we need to recover from the travel and the time on the floor at the AMTD* booth in California, along with nature's own loss-of-sleep makers. Summer in the Northwoods is rapidly coming to an end, and the preparation for the winter chores are endless. We are in the early stages of what could be an interesting five-week September monthly expiration cycle, but all of our positions are fine. We only have weekly positions in AA*, IOC*, LVS* and PBR* to really watch, and with the SPUs once again staring up at 2,000, there is nothing else we can do. The futures (/CL, /GC, /NG, /TF) might be scalped, however, when given a "bouncing" opportunity, and when paying full attention. The weather looks to be upticking, however; the lake looks inviting, perhaps a boat ride is in order - we have to get the water off the boat cover after last night's 2.5 inch downpour anyway! Now that we think of it, we might just take the whole week off along with the Swim Lesson chat room folks and millions of others as they get their kids back in school, or take that final end-of-summer vacation. Next Monday is Labor Day, so a Monday to Monday holiday sounds pretty good to us. 
 
“Opinion has caused more trouble on this little earth than plagues or earthquakes” -- Voltaire 
“If they'd lower the taxes and get rid of the smog and clean up the traffic mess, I really believe I'd settle here until the next earthquake” -- Groucho Marx 
 
FHW 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD)
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
 
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/25/2014 8:40:37 AM | 0 Comments
WORK YOUR ORDERS!

 

Tuesday, 8/19/14, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Today is the 231st day of 2014 and the 60 day of the summer. Aug. 19th birthdays: Orville Wright (1871), Coco Chanel (1893), Ogden Nash (1902), Malcolm Forbes (1919 - 1990), Bill Clinton (1946). On August 19, 1909, Austrian engineer Louis Schwitzer won the 1st race at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway with an average speed of 57.4 MPH. Wonder what kind of mileage he got?
- The 30-year bonds (/ZBU4) are now trading in the mid-140 range, after being stuck for weeks between 138 - 140 they got treacherously close to 142 last Friday. Can the bond continue to move higher/rates lower? Oil (/CLV4*) is trading in the low-94 range, about $3 lower than last week. Where are the downticks in the price at the pump? Gold(/GCZ4*) got back over 1300 and has stayed there, it did dip to 1292 last Friday, but is back trading at 1303 in this morning's early hours. Corn (/ZCZ4*) continues to trade flat to lower - now seemingly stuck in the 365 - 375 range, even though it popped to 380 yesterday. The emini (/ESU4*) SPUs were trading near 1935 last week at this time, and are now back over 1970, so it continues to be a "sellers be damned" type of market, with any negative action immediately pounced on by the buyers. So, the 2000 talk has resumed...gosh, if we only knew, but actually, we couldn't care less - 1900 or 2000 - let 'em go either way! 
- We mentioned Dean Foods (DF) last week as a possible long candidate, but it never downticked allowing an entry point, we will continue to look for some weakness as an opportunity to short some puts, but we're thinking 15 or lower, and who knows if that will ever come. Home Depot (HD), Dick's (DKS), Medtronic (MDT), Rackspace (RAX), Aeropostale (ARO) all reported better than expected, while Guess (GES) was downgraded to "neutral" from "overweight" by Piper Jaffray, and Apple (AAPL*) was continued as an "overweight" by Morgan Stanley with a price target of $110. 
- We continue to get great fills on our option trades - whatever you do - DO NOT HIT THE BID OR TAKE THE OFFER UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. We have been getting sells off much closer to the offer price and closing buy orders filled closer to the bid - SO WORK YOUR DARNED ORDERS - IT IS WORTH THE EXTRA EFFORT! 
- We will be traveling to the Money Show in San Francisco tomorrow, so look for our absence the rest-of-the-week. Huh?  
 
- Today's economic events:
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Housing Starts
Consumer Price Index
Redbook Chain Store Sales
 
Notable earnings before Tuesday's opening: CMCM, CYRN, DKS, HD, MDT, RDEN, TJX ;
and after today's close: LZB, PLAB, RGSE, YOKU*.
 
"Is this some sort of practical illusion?" -- GUR (OEX pit 7/24/86)
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
Look for us in the daily online Swim Lesson Chat Room - found up on Support/Chat on the thinkorswim (AMTD*) platform, and also remember next week's Money Show in San Francisco, and the Market Drive in Los Angeles in November - see ya there. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/19/2014 8:13:32 AM | 0 Comments
5 week September cycle...

 

Monday, August 18, 2014, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
Okay, so the August monthly options expiration was brief, but still a fun-ride with the SPUs taking almost a 100 point swing (1986 - 1890), the good news was that it was only four-weeks long, ending on the earliest possible day of the month (8/15). The bad news is that this September monthly cycle is a five-weeker, but that usually brings with it some good news - possibly MORE premium. However, for us, much of the premium has already been sold, as our summer options avoidance plan was kicked off back in May. But, as we stated a couple weeks ago, we are back in full trading mode, the family is gone, summer is coming to an end, and there are weeklies to be traded! The September cycle is oftentims a crazy one as well. The month of October gets all the fame, but September, for us, has been at least as crazy as the October cycle. 
 
We will be heading to the San Francisco Money Show (www.moneyshow.com) on Wednesday, so our daily missives might be missing, and our participation in the Swim Lesson online chat room will also be sporadic at best. But thanks to our constantly-carried laptops, iPad and iPhone, we will still be fully-in-touch with the markets, with alerts set on just about every underlying. Alerts should ALWAYS be set, and when traveling it is even more important! We generally set them on the price of the underlying, but this is only because our experience (almost 40 years in the industry), we can ballpark the price of the options just by knowing the underlying instrument's price (and days 'til expiration). On the floor we used to say "we don't need no stinking screens," as the options prices are always tied to their product's price - mostly via the delta, time and volatility.
 
Another way to be alerted is to set partial closing orders as early as possible. By this we mean, for example, if the initially entered trade was a short strangle, with each side sold 20 times for about +.50 cents, why not enter partial closing bids (five lots for instance) on both individual strikes at the commission free nickel, as soon as the original strangle sale is filled. This results in quite a few positives; #1 - partial profits are being taken on one side; #2 - capital is being freed-up, along with partial risk relief; and, #3 - you are being notified that an early assignment becomes possible on the still naked short other side. At this time, this partial close will also create some decisions to be made. Depending, of course; on the product, it's volatility, days to expiration, your goals and your risk tolerance - something else might also have to be done. The list of possible follow-up trades is a long one - from closeing the rest of the short one side for the same commission-free nickel, and rolling the other side to another cycle, to allowing more time on both to "run-off the clock." It, as always, depends on your CONSISTENT game plan - which means DO IT THE SAME WAY EVERY TIME! All traders are completely different in every aspect, and WE can't tell YOU what is good for YOU. If anyone in this business does - run away! 
 
"Only take your own advice." -- Anonymous
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD)
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
 
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/18/2014 6:24:49 AM | 0 Comments
Monthly expiration Thursday - PAY ATTENTION!

 

Thursday, 8/14/14, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
- Today is the 226th day of 2014 and the 55th day of summer, but it was only 36 degrees in Rhinelander this morning! Birthdays: David Crosby (1941); Steve Martin (1945); "Magic" Johnson (1959); Halle Berry (1966). This was the day, in 1935, that President Franklin Roosevelt signed the Social Security Act, guaranteeing income for retirees and the unemployed. And in 1945, President Truman announced Japan's unconditional surrender and the end of WW ll, which brought an estimated 2 million people out to New York's Times Square to celebrate! 
- The SPUs (/ESU4*), as of this writing, are trading up about 2 handles to 1947, which is about 57 points higher than where it was two weeks ago. It did dip to 1890 on 8/8, but has been steadily marching higher. If there is a concern in this latest rally it is that it has been on relatively low volume, which could mean that both the bears and the bulls are somewhat dubious about any future direction. We still wouldn't "load the boat" with any new positions, and obviously a lot of other traders feel the same. 1950 will be an important resistance point, and if crossed and closed over, we could go higher and test 2,000. But from 1625 (8/28/13) to 1950 in less than a year, the downside risk far eclipses the possible upside - in our humble opinion. 
- Oil (/CLU4*) has thankfully been stuck just over 97, so our short the Sept 96.50/97 / 105/105.50 iron condor looks fine. Gold (/GCQ4*) is lower this morning - down 3 bucks, but is still over 1300, which seems to be it's important level of support. The 30-year bonds (/ZBU4) are still stuck in the 138 - 140 range, and did almost touch 140 overnight when our alert went off as they traded 139'25. There is a 30-year auction today at noon CDT, so look for some short term bounces in the bonds. The grains remain flat to weak, with corn (/ZCZ4*) currently down to 368.75. What's next for corn? 350 could be possible, but 400 would be greatly appreciated.  
- Today's possible movers: Kohl's (KSS); Walmart (WMT); Molson/Coors (TAP); Guess (GES); Cisco (CSCO). Apple (AAPL*), Facebook (FB*), Blackberry (BBRY*), Microsoft (MSFT*) Caterpillar (CAT) and Interoil (IOC*) are all pointing higher.
 
Tomorrow is August monthly expiration - so be careful if you have anything near or In-The-Money (ITM), if you don't know what to do - CALL THE TRADE DESK @ 866 839 1100. Have a great weekend - we will be missing much of next week as we travel to and partake in the Money Show in San Francisco.
 
News events and earnings:
Initial Jobless Claims
Import/Export Prices
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Results of $16B, 30-Year Note Auction
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
Notable earnings before the open: AAP, BGG, DANG, KSS, LRN, OTIV, PLUG, PRGO, PWE, RRGB, RSPP, SFXE, WMT;
and after today's close: A, ADSK, AMAT, EXTR, JCP, JWN, PCTY, SINA*, WB, XON.
 
"Thankfully, persistence is a great substitute for talent." -- Steve Martin 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink- like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD)
The next Market Drive events will be in Los Angeles in November - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive, and we will also be at next week's San Francisco Money Show 8/21 - 8/23. Tune in to the Swim Lesson Chat at 10:30 AM CDT - we will also see you in class. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/14/2014 8:23:53 AM | 0 Comments
"You CAN stop stupid"

 

Wednesday, 8/13/14, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
As we were once again called early in an equity that had both extrinsic value in the options that were assigned and the same strike puts were bid higher than the dividend payable, here is a very timely reprint from November 3, 2011 (although in the one mentioned there was no dividend). Always check your Monitor's Activity and Position page; look for any ITMs, and if you don't know the stock ramifications or what to do - CALL THE thinkoswim TRADE DESK at 866 839 1100.
 
Exercise/Assignment - What the heck? 
Okay, some poor, probably retail, customer out there in the investment world has no clue about exercise/assignment, and that is too bad, at least for him/her. But their broker should! It is more-than-likely some trader who is in control of their own accounts, trading online in products that they perhaps shouldn't be! Sounds like I am complaining. No, actually I am grateful, but I really don't like taking advantage of some customer who is simply uninformed as to what to do with in or out-of-the-money options. And if they don't know how to handle assignment/exercise, then they shouldn't be in the game, nor should their broker. It's as simple as that!
Okay, what is FHW talking about? I was surprised late Sunday night/early Monday morning, when my Blackberry email went off with an alert from thinkorswim (AMTD*), but it wasn't the usual "Trade Confirmations are now available" message, or some warning that the SPUs, gold (/GC), or oil (/CL) had crossed some threshold. It was an early assignment in Rediff.Com (REDF*). "Huh," I wondered, why would someone call me early on a non-dividend paying stock? Yes, the calls that were "called" were the November 7.50s that had been rolled for months against long stock, so I didn't really care that much, except for the poor guy on the other side who exercised his long calls. Why not exercise when the stock was trading over a dollar "over" on Friday (10/28)? Wouldn't you like to own a stock for 7.50 that was trading at almost 9 bucks? Not only that, the stock moved to over $11.00 on Monday. So, maybe this "poor" customer may have been stupid but had some prior knowledge of where the stock was going on Monday. Still, it shouldn't matter, unless, of course, the guy/gals last name is Rediff, and he/she absolutely knew the stock was going to be $2.00 higher on Monday. But that would be illegal, wouldn't it? Of course it would. And it still wouldn't matter from a pure profit standpoint. 
Anyway, the calls that this customer exercised still had over .50 cents of premium in them on Friday, and they would have theoretically moved penny-for-penny higher with the stock on Monday's big move. Not only that, but the same strike puts were, at the time, trading about .75 cents. So, the trader, if he knew the stock was going higher, should have simply stayed long the deep-in-the-money calls, as they would uptick directly with the stock that he was so sure was going higher, and he/she also could have sold the same strike puts for .75 cents. Instead of paying the big exercise fee (on a four lot), he could have sold the calls on Monday with the exact same gain he made if he sold the stock that he "called" from me, and made an extra .50 cents (they were trading .50 cents over parity) and made an extra .50 cents on the puts that he should have sold (he could have bought them back at .25). 
So, either because this trader clearly didn't know the best way to play the exercise/assignment, and/or the broker in charge didn't know that an extra dollar could be made, not including the almost certainly lower commission cost on just selling the calls and the puts instead of exercising and selling the stock! The moral of this sad exercise/assignment story is to KNOW what the heck you are doing, or hire a broker who does. Oh, and by the way, thanks to whoever it was on the other side of our assignment, because we owned the stock cheaper and got an opportunity to short more November 7.50 puts on Monday for .25 cents.
 
"You can't teach speed or size, but you CAN stop stupid." -- Anonymous
 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD) 
And also look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room from 10:30 central time, and remember next week's San Francisco Money Show - www.moneyshow.com 
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/13/2014 8:08:57 AM | 0 Comments
TruMoo and Skinny Cow as a trade?

 

Tuesday, 8/12/14, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Today is the 224th day of 2014 and the 53rd day of the summer. Aug. 12 birthdays: Cecil B. Demille (1881 - 1959); George Hamilton (1939); Pete Sampras (1971). In 1898 on this day, the U.S. took official possession of the Hawaiian Islands, and in 1981, IBM announced the release of it's 1st personal computer. That first IBM computer had only 64,000 bytes of memory and retailed for $3,005.00! On 8/12/1994, Major League baseball players began their 32-day strike which resulted in the 1st cancellation of the World Series since 1904. 
- The 30-year bonds (/ZBU4) are now trading just over 139, as we have stated for the last few weeks - their range has become 138 - 140? Oil (/CLU4*) is trading in the low-97 range, about a dollar lower than last week, and now precipitiously close to our short 97/96.50 put vertical - as long as it remains in the 97 - 105 range for the September expiry (3 days) we are fine, and will continue to short-term scalp it whenever we notice it bouncing around like it has been almost daily. We will obviously allow the other side's 105/105.50 call vertical to expire. Gold(/GCZ4*) got back over 1300 and has stayed there - also fine with us. Corn (/ZCZ4*) could have seen the bottom near 365, and it might be testing that extremely low level again today.  The emini (/ESU4*) SPUs have been in a relatively tight trading range overnight (1932.75 - 1938.75) so our 1940 alert didn't wake us. Last week at this time they were just over 1927, so no real drama after last week's sell off. 
- Dean Foods (DF) got an upgrade and could be a mover this morning. Dean is big in the Midwest, and we have used and enjoyed their products for decades. The stock does pay a dividend, there is enough open interest in their options (around the current stock price), and we are figuring out how a company with brands named "TruMoo", "Skinny Cow" and "Over The Moon" (as in the cow jumped over) has not been in our portfolio. The problem is that we have been and continue to be cutting back our long stock/short options positions, but on any downtick in this market leading company, we might have to at least short some puts - if not buy some stock and sell a strangle. We will keep you updated, as we do more due diligence. 
 
- Today's economic events:
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Redbook Chain Store Sales
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
Results of $27B, 3-Year Note Auction
Treasury Budget
 
Notable earnings before Tuesday's opening: AER, ARRY, CNCE, CST, FLO, IDRA, INSY, KATE, NOAH, PETX, OTC:RTRX, SOL, TW, USAC, VAL;
and after today's close: CHMI, CREE*, EPAY, FMI, FOSL, FTD, HMIN, JDSU, JKHY, KING, MYGN, OPWR, PE, PRSS, SYNC, TCX, URS, VSAT.
 
“What I have crossed out I didn't like. What I haven't crossed out I'm dissatisfied with.” -- Cecil B. Demille 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
Look for us in the daily online Swim Lesson Chat Room - found up on Support/Chat on the thinkorswim (AMTD*) platform, and also remember next week's Money Show in San Francisco, and 
 
the Market Drive in Los Angeles in November - see ya there. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/12/2014 8:36:02 AM | 0 Comments
Aug 11 - monthly expiration already?

 

 
Monday, August 11, 2014, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
Yes, we have spent the last few days in our old hometown of Chicago; a few fun outings at favorite old haunts with grade school and high school pals; a Cubs game from a fabulous rooftop on Saturday; and Sunday mass at the parish where we were an altar boy - Queen of All Saints Basilica. All-in-all a great, if too short, trip, at least until the speeding ticket just south of Wausau, Wisconsin yesterday afternoon! It is incredible that it is already August expiration Monday, and we have almost no August monthlies on our sheets, so a look back was in order: 
 
Happy Birthday to a strange assortment of folks: Marilyn vos Savant (1946); Jerry Falwell (1933); Eric Carmen (1949 - "All by myself."); and Steve Wozniak (1950).
Other events on August 11th include:
1866 - World's 1st roller rink opens (Newport, RI)
1919 - Green Bay Packers football club founded (we are a shareholder!)
1934 - 1st federal prisoners arrive on Alcatraz Island in San Francisco Bay
1956 - Elvis releases "Don't be cruel." 
1962 - Beach Boys release "Surfin' Safari" 
1971 - Construction begins on Louisianna Superdome
1974 - Lee Trevino wins PGA championship (Congrats to fellow Irishman Rory McIlroy for winning this year's)
1984 - Carl Lewis duplicates Jesse Owens' 1936 feat, wins 4 Olympic track gold medals 
1991 - John Daly, rookie, wins PGA championship.
2014 - August monthly expiration Monday, and everything is green in the early morning trade. 
 
"Success is achieved by delveloping our strengths, not by eliminating our weaknesses." -- Marilyn vos Savant 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD)
The next Money Show is in San Francisco - 8/21 - 8/23, and the next Market Drive is November 1st - in Los Angeles. Hope to see you at one of the events. 
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
 
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/11/2014 7:26:28 AM | 0 Comments
"Pitcher's name is Sally"?

 

Thursday, 8/7/14, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
- Today is the 219th day of 2014 and the 48th day of summer. 
- The SPUs (/ESU4*), as of this writing, are trading up about 8 handles to 1923, another 35 points lower than last week at this juncture, and some 65 points lower than 2-weeks ago. Last week we reiterated; "We have also been saying 'be careful getting into any new long positions at this top', be patient with your cash, as we could see some more selling before that big 2,000 number shows up." We did test 1900 with yesterday's dip to 1903, will that all important 19th century mark hold again? We can't even imagine the amount of stop orders in at that number, nor can we imagine why anyone, who is paying attention, would ever enter a stop order in the first place!
- Oil (/CLU4*) is down another 2 bucks from last week, and is now hovering just over 97.30, we are short the Sept 96.50/97 / 105/105.50 iron condor, so anything over 97 next week would be just fine with us. We have been scalping the underlying for great intraday gains, however, so no biggie either way. Gold (/GCQ4*) is lower, but did recover enough to get back over the 1300 level. The 30-year bonds (/ZBU4) are still stuck in the 138 - 140 range, and the grains remain flat to weak. EIA Natural Gas Inventory numbers come out this morning (9:30 CDT) so be careful if scalping Nat Gas (/NGU4).
- Duke Energy (DUK) beat consensus so it might be a mover today, and Transocean (RIG) also reported better, it too might have an active day. 
- Earnings announcements are really coming in hot and heavy, so look for those corporate action icons on your sheets to prepare yourself for some possible surprises. There are also some key announcments coming today, a ton of earnings numbers, and tomorrow is weekly expiration (Aug2) and next week is August monthly expiration - so be careful if you have anything near or In-The-Money (ITM), if you don't know what to do - CALL THE TRADE DESK @ 866 839 1100. 
 
Another huge day in news events and earnings! 
Chain Store Sales
Initial Jobless Claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Consumer Credit
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
Notable earnings before Thursday's open: AAON, AES, AFSI, AINV, AMCX, ATHM, AUXL, BCE, BDBD, BPI, BR, CBB, CCOI, CECE, CECO, CNQ, CQB, CRIS, CTB, DUK, EAT, FUR, FWLT, GBDC, GDP, GLP, GOLD, GTN, HAR, HII, HIMX, HRC, HSC, HSNI, HZNP, ICE, IDCC, IRC, KERX, LAMR, LEAF, LG, LINE, LMIA, LNCE, LPI, LQDT, LXP, LXRX, MFC, MMS, MNK, MONT, MPEL, MPW, MYL, NCT, NRF, NRG, NVO, NXST, NXTM, OGE, ONE, OWW, PBH, PHMD, POZN, PRIM, QIWI, RDN, RGLD, RSTI, RTK, SABR, SATS, SFUN, SGM, SNI, SPH, SRE, SRPT, SSYS, SUNE*, TDC, TGH, THS, TICC, TK, TPH, VNDA, WEN, WIN, WMC, WWAV, ZEUS;
and after the close: AGO, AHT, AIRM, AL, ALIM, ALJ, ALNY, AMRN, AMRS, ANAC, ANET, ASYS, ATLS, AUQ, BCEI, BCOR, BIOL, BNFT, BNNY, BOFI, BPZ, CARA, CBS, CENT, CFN, CLNE, CLVS, CPST, CSC, CUBE, CVT, DAR, DIOD, DMD, DV, EAC, EBS, ECPG, ED, EGOV, ELX, ENOC, FF, FI, FRT, FWM, FXCM, GHDX, GST, GXP, HGR, HTGC, IRG, KTOS, LGF, MASI, MDVN, MED, MELI, MNST, NES, NFG, NOG, NVDA, NWSA, OLED, OPLK, PFMT, PODD, PRO, PSIX, QTWO, RATE, RBCN, RENT, RPTP, RRMS, SCTY, SEM, SFM, SHOR, SLXP, SPPI, SSTK, TEAR, TRNX, TRUE, TUMI, UBNT, UNXL, VOLC, VVUS, WIFI, XOMA, ZNGA.
 
“When I consider life, 'tis all a cheat. Yet, fooled by hope, men favour the deceit; trust on, and think to-morrow will repay: to-morrow's falser than the former day.”-- John Dryden
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink- like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD)
The next Market Drive events will be in Los Angeles in November - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive, and we will also be at the San Francisco Money Show 8/21 - 8/23. 
Tune in to the Swim Lesson Chat at 10:30 AM CDT - we will also see you in class. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/7/2014 8:25:12 AM | 0 Comments
"Pitcher's name is Sally"?

 

Thursday, 8/7/14, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
- Today is the 219th day of 2014 and the 48th day of summer. 
- The SPUs (/ESU4*), as of this writing, are trading up about 8 handles to 1923, another 35 points lower than last week at this juncture, and some 65 points lower than 2-weeks ago. Last week we reiterated; "We have also been saying 'be careful getting into any new long positions at this top', be patient with your cash, as we could see some more selling before that big 2,000 number shows up." We did test 1900 with yesterday's dip to 1903, will that all important 19th century mark hold again? We can't even imagine the amount of stop orders in at that number, nor can we imagine why anyone, who is paying attention, would ever enter a stop order in the first place!
- Oil (/CLU4*) is down another 2 bucks from last week, and is now hovering just over 97.30, we are short the Sept 96.50/97 / 105/105.50 iron condor, so anything over 97 next week would be just fine with us. We have been scalping the underlying for great intraday gains, however, so no biggie either way. Gold (/GCQ4*) is lower, but did recover enough to get back over the 1300 level. The 30-year bonds (/ZBU4) are still stuck in the 138 - 140 range, and the grains remain flat to weak. EIA Natural Gas Inventory numbers come out this morning (9:30 CDT) so be careful if scalping Nat Gas (/NGU4).
- Duke Energy (DUK) beat consensus so it might be a mover today, and Transocean (RIG) also reported better, it too might have an active day. 
- Earnings announcements are really coming in hot and heavy, so look for those corporate action icons on your sheets to prepare yourself for some possible surprises. There are also some key announcments coming today, a ton of earnings numbers, and tomorrow is weekly expiration (Aug2) and next week is August monthly expiration - so be careful if you have anything near or In-The-Money (ITM), if you don't know what to do - CALL THE TRADE DESK @ 866 839 1100. 
 
Another huge day in news events and earnings! 
Chain Store Sales
Initial Jobless Claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Consumer Credit
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
Notable earnings before Thursday's open: AAON, AES, AFSI, AINV, AMCX, ATHM, AUXL, BCE, BDBD, BPI, BR, CBB, CCOI, CECE, CECO, CNQ, CQB, CRIS, CTB, DUK, EAT, FUR, FWLT, GBDC, GDP, GLP, GOLD, GTN, HAR, HII, HIMX, HRC, HSC, HSNI, HZNP, ICE, IDCC, IRC, KERX, LAMR, LEAF, LG, LINE, LMIA, LNCE, LPI, LQDT, LXP, LXRX, MFC, MMS, MNK, MONT, MPEL, MPW, MYL, NCT, NRF, NRG, NVO, NXST, NXTM, OGE, ONE, OWW, PBH, PHMD, POZN, PRIM, QIWI, RDN, RGLD, RSTI, RTK, SABR, SATS, SFUN, SGM, SNI, SPH, SRE, SRPT, SSYS, SUNE*, TDC, TGH, THS, TICC, TK, TPH, VNDA, WEN, WIN, WMC, WWAV, ZEUS;
and after the close: AGO, AHT, AIRM, AL, ALIM, ALJ, ALNY, AMRN, AMRS, ANAC, ANET, ASYS, ATLS, AUQ, BCEI, BCOR, BIOL, BNFT, BNNY, BOFI, BPZ, CARA, CBS, CENT, CFN, CLNE, CLVS, CPST, CSC, CUBE, CVT, DAR, DIOD, DMD, DV, EAC, EBS, ECPG, ED, EGOV, ELX, ENOC, FF, FI, FRT, FWM, FXCM, GHDX, GST, GXP, HGR, HTGC, IRG, KTOS, LGF, MASI, MDVN, MED, MELI, MNST, NES, NFG, NOG, NVDA, NWSA, OLED, OPLK, PFMT, PODD, PRO, PSIX, QTWO, RATE, RBCN, RENT, RPTP, RRMS, SCTY, SEM, SFM, SHOR, SLXP, SPPI, SSTK, TEAR, TRNX, TRUE, TUMI, UBNT, UNXL, VOLC, VVUS, WIFI, XOMA, ZNGA.
 
“When I consider life, 'tis all a cheat. Yet, fooled by hope, men favour the deceit; trust on, and think to-morrow will repay: to-morrow's falser than the former day.”-- John Dryden
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink- like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD)
The next Market Drive events will be in Los Angeles in November - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive, and we will also be at the San Francisco Money Show 8/21 - 8/23. 
Tune in to the Swim Lesson Chat at 10:30 AM CDT - we will also see you in class. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/7/2014 8:25:12 AM | 0 Comments