Tuesday Tidbits

Tuesday, 05/21/13, Prescott, Arizona, USA

- We don't know why or if FHW was stuck in some sort of Tuesday time-warp, but our last Tuesday tid-bit was back on 4/23. Yes, we were in Vegas last week, but what about the others? Of course it doesn't really matter because the markets only go higher on Tuesdays, so no real need to report anything - but here goes anyway...
- The SPUs (/ESM3*), which were in the 1550 range just four Tuesdays ago are now bubbling up around 1665 - yes, that IS 115 SPU handles in just four weeks. The Russell 2000 (RUT), Donny Kaufman's bane, busted through 1,000 after dipping under 900 a month ago, another major market index monthly move! The Dow ($DJI), who cares, but it too is making almost stupid moves to the upside. The 30-year bonds are hanging near the 144 level, after taking a tempting try at 150 just weeks ago, and oil (/CL*) is back near $97 after dipping under 86 on 4/15. So yes, the markets - all of them have been very active, to say the least. The metals finally started a rally on Monday, after taking a bath over those same weeks, but if you are long term on anything, does any of this really matter? Gosh, we remember in the early 1990s actually cheering for the SPUs to get up over 500!
- What's next, you ask? Well, if we knew that even for just one day, we would certainly be looking for a whole new set of friends! We do recall, sometime in the mid-'80s, asking a good friend on the CBOE trading floor, who, by the way, was said to have been the first to "figure it out" becoming the original "delta neutral trader", why the OEX seemed like it wanted to go to a certain level, he said "don't need a reason, just more buyers or sellers." He also told us, at a later date, to ONLY "buy what you like and short what you don't, because eventually busy company's make money." Clearly words of wisdom from a floor trader who flew over 100 people to the Bahamas for his wedding, before crashing and burning because of what he called "demon drugs."
- Home Depot (HD) announced and of course looks higher, but a few others also reported somewhat weaker numbers. There are a few more earnings reports today: ADI, AZO, BBY, CPWR, DCIX, DKS, INTU, MDT, NTAP, NM, SKS, TJX; but as you can see, no asterisks, so we couldn't care less.

Today's Economic News:
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Redbook Chain Store Sales
Fed's Bullard: Monetary Policy

"Be like the bird that, pausing in her flight awhile on boughs too slight, feels them give away beneath her, and yet sings, knowing that she hath wings." -- Victor Hugo

FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com

Monday, May 20, 2013, Prescott, Arizona, USA

We will be making our cross-country drive next weekend and have our fuel costs fairly well hedged (XOM*,COP*, IOC* and a few more immediately rewarding /CL scalps). And, speaking of what some would consider crazy personal hedges, here is an article from back in 2007, and the hedges listed above are, not surprisingly, still in our long-term portfolio, and doing quite well - thank you. But remember, even in a long term portfolio of dividend paying stocks, some prudence on initial entry might be considered. And, since 2007; now at these incredibly lofty levels, we could be due for a pull-back. However, if you have 20-years or so, perhaps 100 shares and a covered call with a naked put stangle would not be out of the question - at least to begin amassing a longer-term plan and basket of stocks.
2007, Prescott, Arizona, USA
No, not another personal hedge.  Why not? 

Most of you know that we are firm believers in hedging our positions. Whether it be long stock, and simple covered calls; some crazy combination of option positions with stock and/or futures; metal futures versus coins, bars and GLD*; General Motors (GM*) against our new Yukon and old Pontiac; our unleaded gasoline fill-up vs. long oils (XOM* & COP*); even Best Buy (BBY) in some form because of all of our electronic shopping trips - we usually have ourselves somehow "covered." 

In the days of our youth (not by Led Zepplin), we remember certain family discussions as to the value of Commonwealth Edison, or as the turkey was being passed around the Thanksgiving table, an uncle or two arguing about ComEd. Well, that once famous Midwest utility has been merged into the mega energy provider Excelon (EXC), and we no longer have any business dealings with them. But we do pay a few other energy related firms, for a few properties in both Arizona and Wisconsin. And, although we migrate from one-to-the-other when the climate dictates, commonly cutting our utility costs, we do still pass some hard-earned FHW dollars on to them each-and-every month. 

Wisconsin Public Service is now part of the Integrys Holding Company (TEG*), based out of Chicago, and servicing certain parts of the north central part of the United States and Canada. Our Arizona homes use the power provided by UniSource Energy (UNS), whose main subsidiaries are Tucson Electric Power and UNS Gas and Electric, who distribute gas and electric to dozens of some of the fastest growing areas in Arizona, with a customer base expanding by approximately 4% a year. Although the growth in areas like the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and Northwoods of Wisconsin aren't as stunning as in Arizona, TEG recently declared a quarterly dividend of .66 cents per common share, payable on September 20, 2007, to shareholders of record August 31, 2007. This will mean the company has paid dividends for 67 consecutive years and increased its dividend for 49 consecutive years (now.68 cents). So much for needing substantial growth in the utility business!

Then there are the home and cell phone providers. We were recently asked how we could possibly use 2100 minutes a-month on our cell phone, but our plan covers four different phones, and yes, we have actually gone over the monthly provided service!  A blooming teen-aged heir-to-the-mortgage; blonde better-half, and her equally as blonde mom; along with our frequently used phone, and pretty soon 2000 minutes or-so is a thing of the past. That monthly telephone stipend goes to none other than Verizon (VZ*). Home phone services are provided by Frontier (FTR*) in Wisconsin, and QWest (now Centruy Link - CTL) in Arizona. We understand that many are ridding themselves of the old-fashioned, hard, home phone lines, and although we spend a lot more time on our cell phones, we don't plan on tearing out the old kitchen phones any time soon, and one or two telecommunication stocks is not a bad idea.

So, what is our point?  We started off by talking of personal hedges, and have just found a few more for ourselves, some that wealready own, and others that we have never heard of. But, you ask, so what if we write a monthly check to some public service or telecom company for a couple hundred bucks, why buy their stock?  Hello!  Do you think you are the only ones tied into VZ, TEG, or UNS, or whatever company in your particular part of the country (world) is bringing you electric, gas, telephone, or some other monthly service or utility? There are thousands of them!  Now may be as good-a-time as any to look into some of these dividend paying giants (or wait for a pullback!). Next time you write a utility or telecom check, just think of it as coming back to you in the form of a stock dividend, options premium or capital appreciation. Not necessarily a bad plan, 2100 cellphone minutes or not!

" 'Marginal utility'? What's that? Just get me a good shortstop."  -- Anonymous

FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com

Monthly expiration Friday, May 17, 2013, Prescott, Arizona, USA

"Nuttin' doin'." It is indeed monthly expiration Friday, but over the past couple of monthly cycles we have rolled further out in time (and sometimes price), so we wouldn't be as concerned on this and next months expiry. So, here we sit; just back from the Vegas trade show, with a week to go until our heir-to-the-mortgage graduates from high school, followed immediately with our arduous 2,000 mile weekend drive to Wisconsin. Expiration Friday with nothing to do? One more week in Prescott and we have nothing to do? Actually, we have about 10 million things to do, and with no options to roll, what better time to do the "close-the-home chores...

Have a great weekend. Monday begins what might be one of the longest monthly cycles of our options career - the dreaded five-week June expiration. Why so long? Well, it is summer, the interest in anything market related will wane as we get deeper into the elongated June cycle, and it isn't just FHW that attempts to avoid the summer doldrums. A lot of kids will soon be getting out of school, so the parents are preparing themselves for the soon-to-come summer onslaught of kid-related events. While on the CBOE tradeing floor, we used to poke fun at the big NY traders heading to the Hamptons as the reason for the slower summer cycles, but that isn't that far from the truth.

Chicago traders too would use the summer time to avoid the city and some trades, with north side Chicagoans mostly going to Wisconsin, and south siders heading to their homes in Michigan and Indiana - both directions having to do with their relative proximity and which way they would go around Lake Michigan. Our entire summer-time life has been spent somewhere in Wisconsin, and that was the driving factor in our wanting the heir-to-the-mortgage to experience the same kind of summer fun. Speaking of Cheeseland, how about some fun Wisconsin facts:

- Door County has 250 miles of Lake Michigan shoreline - more shoreline than any other county in the country.
- The first hydroelectric plant in the U.S. was built in Wisconsin in 1882 - on the Fox River.
- Harley-Davidson (HOG) is headquartered in Milwaukee, with other facilities located around the state.
- Monroe is the Swiss Cheese Captial of the world.
- The Freshwater Fishing Hall of Fame is in Hayward.
- Eagle River is known as the Snowmobile Capital of the World.
- Sheboygan is the Bratwurst Capital of the World.
- Green Bay is the Toilet Paper Capital of the World - look it up if you don't believe us!

"Washington, DC is to lying what Wisconsin is to cheese." -- Dennis Miller

FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com

Thursday, May 16, 2013, Prescott, AZ., USA

The SPUs (/ESM3*) were trading in the 1530 level just four weeks ago (4/18) and look to open today near 1652 after being closer to 1625 last week, as this now almost humorous rally continues almost unabated. We mentioned how many market mavens and major short players were giving their mea culpas last week, and the ones we have talked to here at the Money Show in Las Vegas are not quite ready to throw in their increasingly bloody towels. The volatilities are so low that it is difficult to sell any call premium at these incredibly lofty levels, so long put verticals and even some well out-of-the-money butterflies are now being looked at by those shorts that still have any money left. We always keep an open mind, but when a kid that used to work at our Prescott Downtown Health Club that we hadn't seen in a year calls to ask our opinion of Tesla (TSLA), and an almost giddy elderly lady at the trade show mentions Disney (DIS), all our somewhat whacky mind could think of was Humpty Dumpty, and his great fall. How much longer can that anthropomorphic egg cling to the wall? Will all the king's horses and all the king's men be able to put Humpty back together again if he has been completely vaporized by the SPUs? New parts from overblown Home Depot (HD)? Will Yoga pants from LULULemon (LULU*) help? Perhaps Pulte Home (PHM) which has gone from three bucks to almost $24 in a couple years will be hired to put the egg together again. Whew! We have clearly been in a very crowded Las Vegas too long, when our market thoughts turn to nursery rhymes, yoga pants and home improvements and builders all in one paragraph. But please be careful adding any new money on the long side of this ridiculously elevated market. Elon Musk (from Tesla) can throw more of his dough at his miniscule car manufacturing company and maybe it can get to $100, while Google (GOOG) approaches $1,000, but Humpty's wall is clearly teetering.  

Today is a busy day in the economic news front...
Fed's Plosser: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook
Fed's Rosengren: Monetary Policy
Consumer Price Index
Initial Jobless Claims
Housing Starts
Fed's Fisher: Monetary Policy
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Philly Fed Business Outlook
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
EIA Petroleum Inventories
Fed's Williams: Economic and Monetary Policy
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet

Notable earnings after the close: ADSK, AMAT, ARUN, BRCD, DELL, JCP, JWN, SINA*, VNET.

"I don't know what you mean by 'glory,' " Alice said.
Humpty Dumpty smiled contemptuously. "Of course you don't - til I tell you. I meant 'there's a nice knock-down argument for you!' " -- Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking Glass

Have a great weekend.

FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com

Monday, May 13, 2013, Prescott, Arizona, USA

Feeling old and taxed?

- Life expectancy of Americans has increased by 10.5 years from 1950-2010, reaching 78.7 years today. Thus, since 1950, life expectancy at birth has increased by about 2 months every year.
- The 16th Amendment to the US Constitution was ratified on 2/03/1913, giving Congress the right to impose individual income taxes on U.S. citizens. The top marginal tax rate was 7% in 1913 vs. 39.6% in 2013.  
- By 2030 there will be about 72.1 million "elderly" Americans (over 65) - more than twice the number in 2000.
- By 2020 the projected U.S. population of people over 85 will be about 6.6 million (we won't be 85 until 2036).
- Americans that reach the age of 65 have an average life expectancy of an additional 18.8 years (20 for females, 17.5 for males)

"The oldest trees often bear the sweetest fruit." -- German proverb
"When I was young, I thought that money was the most important thing in life; now that I am old, I know it is." -- Oscar Wilde

We will be at the TDAmeritrade (AMTD*) booth at the Las Vegas Money Show in Caesar's Palace (CZR) for most of the week, so our daily blogs might be sporadic - stop by and see us. There is also a Market Drive coming up at the Seattle Marriott Waterfront on Saturday, June 8th - info at www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive

Have a great week.

FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com

Friday, May 10, 2013, Prescott, Arizona, USA

A reprint from 2007 which was in part a reprint from a FHW article from all the way back in 2004!

Holding Sears. Or is that Sears Holdings (SHLD)? 

In June we spoke of the old Sears, Roebuck & Company and their incredible early 1900's Model Home program. That article talked more of little Carlinville, Illinois and the amount of Sears shipped homes that were built there in 1918, and how they had created an almost cult-like devotion and atmosphere around the remaining Sears homes in the small southern Illinois town. We have never owned the stock of either the old Sears, Roebuck & Company, or the newly fashioned Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD), but after having owned dozens (hundreds?) of the company's products, and always believing in our own personal choices and indexes, it is a shame that we haven't.

The new SHLD, the parent of Kmart and Sears, Roebuck and Company, is publicly traded on the NASDAQ market, is the nation's #3 "broadline" retail firm, with approximately $50 billion in annual revenues, coming from 3,800 stores in the U.S. and Canada. Their popular brands are found in almost every home and/or garage in the country, from Kenmore appliances to Craftsman tools, DieHard car products, Lands' End, and Martha Stewart Everyday products, their goods are about as American as American can be. The company has moved from the old Sears Catalogue days of the 1800s, to one of North America's largest seller of appliances, lawn and garden equipment, and automotive repair products, expanding from their new Hoffman Estates, Illinois home in leaps and bounds. 

The most recent WFT article mentioned that we wish we would have looked into the new SHLD stock when the Sears/Kmart merger took place. Checking our archives, we found an article from that same time frame that delved further into the two American firms. It was not so long ago in corporate history, although it may feel that way for Martha Stewart, as back then she was in prison, but here is a reprint of the Sears/Kmart article from December 1, 2004:

Can we get Martha Stewart on the phone please? We have heard that when the Sears/Kmart merger news was announced that the jail phones were ringing off the hook, and it wasn't the usual list of lawyers, bondsmen, gangsters, and the like, but an odd assortment of CNBC talking heads, gardeners, analysts, artists, stockholders and housewives.

Yes, Kmart is merging with Sears! Surely that isn't Chicago's tallest (1450 feet) monolith to retail - The Sears Tower - shaking! Although it may have been Bright's disease that took the life of Richard Warren Sears, in 1914, the recently announced Sears merger with Kmart would perhaps also have done physical damage to Mr. Sears - if not killed him. But the history of the two firms, and their founding fathers, have some amazing parallels, which many in the investment and retail industry fail to realize.

Sears, Roebuck Company was the brainchild of Minnesota born Richard Sears, in what went from a small seller of watches in 1886, and mail order homes in 1908, to the owner of the tallest building in the world, Sears, Roebuck Company became one of the great success stories in American retailing history. Most even in the retail world do not see Kmart in the same league, especially after their recent trip through bankruptcy, but for almost 100 years, the two retail giants were actually very much alike.

Richard Sears started working for the railroad, when in 1886, at his station at North Redwood, Minnesota, a shipment of watches went unclaimed. Permission was granted for him to try to sell the watches, and after making $5,000 in a very short time, Sears decided to go into the watch business in Minneapolis. The Sears watches were sold with a guarantee, so Alvah C. Roebuck was soon hired to oversee the rapidly growing business' service department.

Sears, Roebuck grew from a catalog house, in 1927, to launching their own Craftsman Tools and Kenmore Appliances brand names; hit the $1 billion sales mark in 1945; got into the insurance business, with Allstate, in 1931; the brokerage and real estate business with the 1981 acquisitions of Dean Witter Reynolds and Coldwell, Banker; and the credit card business with the 1985 national introduction of their Discover Card.

Sears, Roebuck (S), now headquartered in Hoffman Estates, Illinois, and ranked #32 in the 2004 Fortune 500, has: almost 250,000 employees in the U.S. and Canada; over 900 full-line Sears stores, with an additional 1,100 specialty stores; more than 48 million active Sears customer households; makes over 5 million product deliveries a year and, thanks to the firms longstanding "Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back" promise, over 14 million yearly calls for service and repair. Oddly enough, about the same time that Richard Sears was getting into the watch business, Sebastian Spering Kresge was, in 1899, opening the first of his five-and-dime stores, with $8,000, in Detroit, Michigan.

From Kresge's original five-and-dime store in 1899, the company has grown from a store selling all of their products for .05 and .10 cents, at the turn of the century; to S.S. Kresge's first $1 stores - in the 1920s; the first suburban shopping center store, in 1937; and, when, due to some major retailing changes, and corporate problems, throughout the 1950s, new President, Harry Cunningham, was brought on, in 1959. Under the new President, in 1962, the first of it's kind discount department store, named Kmart, opened in Garden City, Michigan, and by 1966, sales at the 162 Kmart and 753 Kresge stores topped the $1 billion mark. In 1977, with 95% of the company's sales being generated by the Kmart stores, the S.S. Kresge Company officially changed it's name to Kmart Corporation, to fully emphasize its discount based retail business.

Success oftentimes came hard to both Sears and Kmart, proving this, was when, on May 6th, 2003, Kmart emerged from it's 15 month long Chapter 11 reorganization; reduced its debt structure; secured over $2 billion in "exit" financing; closed or terminated leases on many of their weaker store locations; and under new President Julian C. Day, developed a more disciplined, efficient organization, while lowering operating costs in newly renovated "clean" stores. In fact, after coming through wars, recessions, depressions, crashes, floods, droughts, every other sort of natural disaster, and even a Chapter 11 bankruptcy, perhaps Richard Sears and Sebastian Kresge would both be proud of their new retail conglomeration! While they may be grinning in the graveyard, we hear that Martha Stewart is also beaming behind bars!

"I'm not going to vacuum 'til Sears makes one you can ride on." -- Roseanne Barr

Have a great weekend - hope to see you next week at the Money Show in Las Vegas.

FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com

Thursday, May 9, 2013, Prescott, AZ., USA

The SPUs (/ESM3*) were trading in the 1530 level just three weeks ago (4/18) and look to open today near 1626 - quite an impressive run. Last year, in this early May time frame, the futures were under 1300, so, once again, an incredible year-long rally! And yes, we remember October of 2011 when they dipped down under 1100. Our only hope is that the typical retail customer didn't listen to all the "experts" and get out of their LONG TERM equities, and the brilliant new TDAmeritrade Investor Movement Index (IMX) actually shows the everyday customer has indeed become more market "savvy" than most of the "pros". Yes, there will eventually be a pull-back in the overall market, but possibly from such an elevated level that hopefully the new retail smart money will, at most, only make some cut backs and not throw in their long term equity towel. Yes, between 2007 and the lows of 2009 the SPUs did go from 1550 down to 660, but look where they have recovered to - new all time highs. We have been in the markets for WAY longer than the amazing last six years, so we have seen a lot of these interesting year-over-year runs. If you are a LONG TERM investor, as you should be, and have the abillity to sell premium on both sides of the market (calls and puts), while collecting dividends, you should be and will be, in the long-run, just fine. Okay, sorry about the long discourse on the past, but some of the market mavens that are now doing their version of a market mea culpa have been driving us crazy! As we say every single day in the Swim Lesson Chat room - TRADE WHAT YOU KNOW AND KNOW WHAT YOU TRADE, THINK LONG TERM AND ONLY ABOUT YOUR ANNUALIZED RATE OF RETURN. No one can pick tops or bottoms, and those that think they can and tell others all about it, usually end up trying to explain their ridiculous rationale, while their followers go broke! Now that we've said that, the SPUs are downticking... So, be careful and prudent out there, stay small, nimble and risk defined with the ability to handle and manage your risk.

Today is a busy day in the economic news front...
Chain Store Sales
Jobless Claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Wholesale Trade
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Results of $16B, 30-Year Note Auction
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply

Notable earnings before the opening: AES, AGU, ALR, AM, AMRC, APA, BAM, BCE, CBB, CNSL, CTB, CVC, DF, DISH, DNDN, GLP, GTIV, IRC, KEM, KIOR, MEA, NPSP, OWW, PCP, SNE, SNSS, SPH, SRPT, TK, TNK, VICL, VNDA, WAC, WFR, WIN, WWAV, XRAY.
Notable earnings after the close: AGO, AIRM, AL, ALIM, ANAC, ASYS, AUQ, BCEI, BID, BPZ, CALL, CPE, DAR, EGY, ET, FTK, FXEN, GXP, KTOS, LLNW, MBI, MCP*, MDRX, MDVN, NGVC, NVDA*, OPTR, PANL, PCLN, PDLI, PSA, RNDY, SF, SLXP, SQNM, TNGO, UBNT, ZGNX.

"Faith - you don't have to see the whole staircase, just the first step." -- Anonymous

Have a great weekend.

FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com

Another big day for earnings - after the close:

AHT, ALJ, ATLS, ATVI, AVNR, CF, CLNE, CLR, CTL, CTRP, CUZ, CXW, DEPO, DK, ERII, ETE, ETP, GMCR, GRPN*, GSS, HALO, HEK, HNSN, JOE, LPSN, MBLX, MDR, MED, MIDD, MM, MNST, MNTX, MWE, NWSA, OSUR, PPO, PVA, QTM, RAX, RGP, RIG, RST, SGMO, SPRD, SSRI, STEC, SXL, SZYM, TCAP, TSLA, WR, XTEX.

FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com                                                                                                                                                        

Wednesday, May 8, 2013, Prescott, Arizona, USA

"I wanna new drug..."

"Hey FHW, what the heck happened to good old Chicago's Abbot Labs (ABT*)? Is that an ABBV on your account sheets?" Yes, AbbVie (ABBV*) is the new independent biopharmaceutical company composed of Abbott's former proprietary pharma business. So, Abbott is now two companies, both actively traded, each with about 1.5 billion outstanding shares that pay an industry typical dividend, and plenty of options action on both sides.

"Which one do you like better?" Well, Abbott Labs has been around for about 125 years, and I have actually been to one of their corporate headquarters just outside of Chicago. AbbVie, on the other hand, has only been around for a few months, and it is the more innovative biotech piece of the newly split Abbot healthcare company. It is difficult to get excited about a healthcare company, but we find something very surprising with the spin-off. You would think that one of the largest well established healthcare companies in the world would have relatively low volatility levels, and yes, the ABT*s, Pfizers (PFE*), Astrazenecas (AZN) and others generally do. On the other hand you would think a biopharma might have elevated volatility levels - like a Gilead (GILD) or Amgen (AMGN), and that a new bio outfit might have even higher volatilities. But youngster pharma AbbVie's volatility is just about the same as it's elderly parent.

We haven't quite figured out what this means yet, but will soon be cutting back our positions in both, as they have had incredible runs to the upside. We believe that in any diverse long-term porfolio there should be at least one healthcare, drug or biopharmaceutical company, and of course it should pay a dividend and have enough options trade and open interest to make selling options a viable means to enhance that dividend. But we also profess that anything in your long-term "cabinet" of positions should also be known, understood and even a favorite product or service. You should have done some investigating before you started to use the product or service in the first place; as to an insurance or healthcare provider, medical outfit, drug or whatever. So, now that you know and believe in the benefits of the firm manufacturing the product or providing the service, why not own a piece of the company if for no other reason that to broaden the diversity of your long-term stock portfolio.

"The drugs don't make me high, they make me neutral." -- Dr. Gregory House (TV character)

FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com

Monday, May 6, 2013, Chicago, Illinois, USA

Noticing an elderly gentleman at a Chicago Costco (COST) over the weekend, we tought back to an article we wrote in 2007 and wondered about old Arnie. Then we thought - why we didn't buy the stock when in June of '07 when it was $50.00, it is now over $109.00.
 
How old is old?

While strolling through the wide-aisles at Costco the other day, we noticed an elderly gentleman trying to grab a fairly large generator off a second tier shelf; "How about if we give you a hand," we offered, "No thanks, let's see if I can get it myself," replied the old shopper. Then, in the wine department, we noticed the same aging shopper picking out a few bottles of reds and whites, for some reason we were interested in the tough old guy and had to start a conversation. 

Walking cart-by-cart, we chatted our way through much of the refrigerated aisles, both picking out various meats and cheeses, while discussing everything from the stock market to the World Wars. When our newfound friend, Arnie, mentioned "The Big One - WW l," it heightened our attention, "I didn't get into the fight, but would have, if I was just a couple years older," he stated. "A couple years?" I replied. "Yes, son, I will be 102-years old next month, so I have seen a lot of war and peace, and remember when a bag of apples, like this, would cost about 5 cents!" Trying to do the math, I said, "you were born in 1905?" "Yes, that's when a good pound of bacon like this would have 'run' about 12 cents, and a pound of 'real' coffee, nothing like this canned stuff, would have been less than a quarter." 

What a veritable font of knowledge we had, by chance, bumped into. Of course, upon arriving home, and before unloading the car, we had to hit the laptop for some further old age digging (sorry if you see that as a pun).  We recently wrote of the aging of America and the world in general, but in looking at the statistics were somewhat stunned at the odds that Arnie had beaten. The life expectancy, when born, for men of his generation was just under 47 years, and when old Arnie hit 65, in 1970, he was only supposed to be around for another 13 years. How did he do it, we wondered? Was it the red wine from Costco, or that bacon to which he compared the 100 year old price. Surely, health care had to have something to do with it, but after 100 years on this earth, old Arnie has had to survive a lot of his doctors.

Okay, let's check some health care statistics, we thought. In 2004, the United States spent 16% of its Gross Domestic Product on health care, a larger share than any other developed country that keeps the stats. An average of $6,280 per person was spent in '04, for a total of $1.9 trillion! That may seem like a lot of loot, but just wait a few years. Not only are people living longer, but the percentages (2006) of people 65 or over who smoke, are in fair to poor health, and/or overweight are higher than any other age group. So, this elderly group, who is also widely uninsured or underinsured is going to really start piling up the national medical debt, not only soon, but for a longer period of time.

The life expectancy back in 1955 was just about 69 years, while the latest U.S. statistics show longevity has reached a new high, and that a child born in 2005 can expect to live to almost 78 years of age. Heart disease is still the leading cause of death, with cancer and stroke close behind, but the death rates for all of these killers is shrinking. Because of the reductions in these leading causes of death's numbers, a numbers cruncher with the National Center for Health Statistics says that "we should continue to see improvements in life expectancy." At an average of adding about 10 years every fifty, in a century, the average life expectancy for those lucky enough to be born in 100 years, may be about 100 years. Huh? Yes, just about anyone born in 2107 may live to see 2207. Whew, that seems like a long way off, at this point, we will be happy to make it another 6 weeks to welcome in 2008, and we bet Arnie would agree!

"There is a fountain of youth: it is your mind, your talents, the creativity you bring to your life and the lives of people you love. When you learn to tap this source, you will truly have defeated age." -- Sophia Loren

FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com