What's Frank Thinking? rss
Halloween All-Time Highs!

 

Happy Halloween Friday, 10/31/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
ALL TIME HIGH ALERT! 
The SPUs (/ESZ4*) this morning are up sharply by +20.00 points - over 1% - at a new contract high. The S&P 500 on Thursday (10/30) climbed to a 1-month high and closed higher. The Dow Jones was up +1.30%, and the Nasdaq +0.25%. Yesterday did see dramatic drops in gold (/GCZ4) and silver (/SIZ4) - don't be surprised if you see some margin requirement adjustments in the metals if they continue their slide. The dollar (/DXZ4) is bumping 87, up over .70, and just about every equity on our sheets is pointing to a higher opening. Can this rally continue? Once again, at these lofty 
levels, if uncomfortably long, not a bad time for a partial cut-back. We just wonder how much longer the shorts can hang on? 
We are on our way to the JW Marriott (MAR) in downtown Los Angeles for tomorrow's Market Drive event. Hope to see you there. 
 
Current Levels: 
E-mini S&P Futures  2,009.75  (+1.07%)  
E-mini DOW Futures  17,299  (+1.08%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  4,148.50  (+1.44%)  
 
Today's economic calendar:
Personal Income and Outlays
Employment Cost Index
Chicago PMI
Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment
USDA Ag. Prices
 
Notable earnings before Friday's open: AON, AXL, BUD, CBOE*, CLX, COL, COMM, CVX, D, GWR, HLT, HPY, ITT, IXYS, LM, MGI, MMP, MOG.A, MSG, NS, NTLS, NWL, OSK, PNM, PNW, SNE, SPR, TDS, TE, USM, VTG, WETF, WY, XLS, XOM; and after today's close: CMRE.
 
"Pleasure is oft a visitant, but pain clings cruelly to us." -- John Keats 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink- like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD)
The next Market Drive event is tomorrow in Los Angeles, then in Houston on November 8th. - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive. 
The next Trader's Expo is in Las Vegas - November 19 - 21. Hope to see you at one of the events.
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/31/2014 8:58:00 AM | 0 Comments
A Halloween Market Maker?

 

Thursday, October 30, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA
 
- Two weeks ago the SPUs (/ESZ4*) were trading in the 1850 range, then, last week at this time they were 1940, and we warned of them going back over 1950. Well, they got to 1980.75 overnight but retreated back to 1959.25, and are trading as of this writing at 1967.50. THAT is a big overnight swing, and it might portend some big intraday bounces. Perhaps the sellers came in from Kansas City after their wonderful Royals lost the 7th game of the World Series to the San Francisco Giants. Actually they lost to Madison Bumgarer, who was incredible. If you watched the game you watched some historic sports stuff which baseball fans will be talking about in 100 years! Or maybe the big overnight move was some buyers and sellers from overseas trying to figure out our Feds next move? If it was foreign money coming in they also bought the US dollar up - it traded as high as 86.58 overnight, higher than it's been in over three-weeks. Who knows and who cares? 
- Oil and the bonds are still relatively close to where they were a week ago, and were relatively rangebound in the overnight. Whereas the "soft" commodities have been on a rip-roaring rally, with corn (/ZCZ4*) moving from last week's 350 to it's overnight high of 381. We have been long a few corn futures contracts throughout the big sell-off and rally, and thankfully got out of most in partials all the way up. It was an interesting ride, and we have to thank thinkorswim's (AMTD*) own Sarah Linane for her help. It is always good to have someone who really knows what they're doing when trading, and Sarah came right from the CBOT's corn pit and knows her stuff! 
- The list of earnings announcements and economic news events is as long today as ever, and tomorrow is the weekly expiration - so PLEASE PAY ATTENTION! Janet Yellen will also do a song-and-dance this morning, and Nat Gas (/NGZ4) inventory numbers also come out this morning, so look for some movement in the oil and gas patch. 
- Today's possible movers: China opened their markets to Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) to clear domestic banking transactions, so they are seeing some positive action. Level 3 (LVLT) will replace Jabil Circuits (JBL) in the S&P 500 as of the close on 11/4, so look for some movement there. CME Group (CME) announced better earnings - gosh, do you think it is because of all of our scalps in corn (/ZCZ4*), gold (/GCZ4*), oil (/CLZ4*) and the SPUs? BIDU, CAR, CNW, NCLH, KRFT, HBI, ALL and MetLife (MET) all reported better, but WMB, FBHS and Time Warner (TWC) reported weaker. 
 - Today's economic events:
Initial Jobless Claims
GDP Q4
Janet Yellen speech
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Results of $29B, 7-Year Note Auction
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
- Notable earnings before the open: ABC, ABMD, ACIW, ACOR, ALLE, ALU, AMAG, AMT, ANR, APD, APO, ATK, AUDC, AVP, BCO, BG, BGCP, BLL, BWA, CAH, CARB, CBM, CEVA, CI, CME, CNSL, COP, COR, CRCM, CRNT, CRR, CVI, CVRR, DBD, DFT, DHX, DST, EPD, EXLS, FCH, FCN, FIG, FIS, GBX, GEL, GG, GLOP, GNC, GOV, GTI, GTLS, HAR, HEES, HGG, HST, I, IDA, IDCC, INCY, INGR, IQNT, IRDM, IRM, ITC, IVZ, JCI, K, KCG, KEM, KMT, LAD, LECO, LKQ, LLL, LPLA, LRN, MA, MD, MDC, MDXG, MGM, MMYT, MO*, MOD, MOS, MPC, MPLX, MPW, MSCI, MZOR, NEO, NGD, NI, NILE, NOV, NVO, NYT, O, OAK, OCN, ODFL, OXF, PBI, PCRX, PEG, Q, RDEN, RDN, RDS.A, RFP, RGLD, RTIX, SCG, SHOO, SMP, SNAK, SPAR, SSE, STRA, STRZA, SUI, TASR, TEVA, THRM, TRI, TWC, UAN, UPL, USAC, VICL, VNTV, WLT, WST, WWE, XEL;
and after today's close: ADNC, ADUS, AEGR, AFFX, AHS, AHT, AIV, ALJ, ATEN, ATRC, AXTI, BCOV, BEAT, BYD, BYI, CCI, CHE, CODE, COLM, CPSI, CPT, CSLT, CTRL, CUBE, DCT, DGI, DGII, EGN, EGO, EHTH, ELGX, ELLI, ELX, EMN, EPAY, ESIO, ESS, EXPE, FLDM, FLR, FLT, FRT, GB, GDOT, GMED, GNMK, GPRO, GRPN, HIL, HME, IMMR, IMPV, INT, ISBC, KEG, LNKD, LRE, LYV, MCHP, MELI, MHK, MOH, MTZ, MXL, MYL, NATI, NEM, NR, NSR, NUVA, OIS, OMCL, ONNN, OPLK, OUTR, PKI, PSA, PXLW, QNST, RAIL, RSG, SAM, SBUX, SEM, SGEN, SGMS, SIMG, SPF, SREV, STAA, STAG, SYNC, TCO, TEP, THRX, TNAV, TPX, TRMB, TSO, TSRA, TSYS, TUES, VCRA, WU, YRCW, ZEN.
Current prices: 
E-mini S&P Futures  1,962.00  (-0.52%)  
E-mini DOW Futures  16,852  (-0.43%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  4,051.25  (-0.52%)  
US Dollar Index  86.222  (+0.31%)  
 
"What are you going to be for Halloween - a Market Maker, now THAT'S a scary thought!" -- RQ to GUR (OEX pit circa 1986)
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink- like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD)
The next Market Drive event will be in Los Angeles on November 1st and Houston on November 8th. - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive. 
The next Trader's Expo is in Las Vegas - November 19 - 21. Hope to see you at one of the events.
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/30/2014 9:09:15 AM | 0 Comments
Vicuna socks = $1,200?

 

Wednesday, October 29, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
We are getting pretty close to Christmas, and if you are in the market for the man who has everything, how about a nice pair of vicuna socks. If if feels like the markets have been kicking you in the teeth, just think how much easier the kicks would have felt if they had come from feet covered with some nice soft vicuna socks. Huh? What the heck is vicuna? And have we been the kicker or the kickee? Well, a vicuna is a llama-like camelid found in South America, that has about the finest hair on the planet. The wool is so delicate, in fact, that it can't be dyed, which limits the color possibilities of the socks to a golden brown. As to kicking - quite a kick it is, because they cost about $1,200 a pair! WHAT? Twelve-hundred bucks for a pair of brown socks? Yup. But you can get a matching pullover sweater for "merely" another $3,300. 
 
So, for about $5,000 you can have a nice matching sock/sweater combo from Germany's luxury knitwear company, Falke. And, yes, they do come in fancy wood boxes with a certificate of authenticity. Gosh, how many socks have somehow disappeared in your laundry room? Just imagine if you took all of your clothes out of the basket only to find one of these golden brown socks had gone missing! What about your pets? Has a cat or a dog ever had-at a pair of your socks? What would happen if your cute little pup Pepper picked the pair to partake in a power-play with one of your kids or other animals? You might feel as if you had been "Falked" so to speak. 
 
We have actually owned some Falke socks, so obviously not all of their footwear is that expensive, and the ones that covered our feet were fabulous - and only about ten bucks. Falke is a private German company that was founded in 1895 by Franz-Falke-Rohen, now known as Falke Group. Based in Schmalleberg since the 1920s, the company does almost 230 million euros in sales, employing 3,200 worldwide. In 2008 the Falkes bought the trademark rights to Burlington, the famous maker of argyle tartan-type socks and sweaters, which greatly expanded their product lines. The combined company now knits a wide assortment of fabulous fashion goods for both men and women, including "cooshy" cashmere blankets and scarves, and goat suede throws. 
 
If you are thinking of that special gift, obviously with socks there isn't much concern about size, and with the vicuna, as we said, no question about color. You can order them online and send them to our Prescott address! 
 
"Hargett don't you ever wear socks?" "Only at weddings, funerals and to bed." FHW and HUH (OEX pit circa 1986)
 
Earnings after today's close: ABX, ACGL, ACHC, ACMP, AEGN, AEM, AFOP, AHL, AIZ, AKAM, ALDW, ALL, ANIK, ARAY, ARII, ARRS, ASGN, ATML, AUY*, AXS, BGC, BIDU, BLKB, BMR, CACI, CALX, CAR, CATM, CAVM, CBG, CBL, CEMP, CENX, CHDN, CJES, CLD, CLUB, CMO, CNW, CRL, CRUS, CSGP, CSII, CUZ, CW, CWT, DAC, DRE, DRIV, DWA, EQIX, EQY, ESRT, ESV, EXL, EXR, FBHS, FFIV, FISH, FLEX, FLTX, FMC, FNF, FORM, FORR, FR, GLUU, HBI, HOS, HT, IPI, IRG, ISIL, JDSU, KEX, KRFT, KS, LGCY, LNC, LOCK, LOPE, MAA, MANT, MASI, MDAS, MEOH, MET, MOBL, MTGE, MUR, NCLH, NE, NEU, NEWP, NSIT, OII, PDM, PEIX, PGTI, PPC, PRXL, PSMI, PVA, QGEN, QTM, QUIK, RFMD, RGR, RJF, RNG, RRC, RRTS, RST, SCI, SFLY, SGI, SIMO, SLCA, SPN, SPRT, SSNC, SSS, STR, SU, TEX, TFSL, TGB, TGI, THG, TRLA, TTMI, TTWO, UNM, V, VECO, VGR, VPRT, VR, WLL, WMB, WPZ, WSTL, WTW.
 
Remember this Saturday's Los Angeles Market Drive event. To sign up go to the TD Ameritrade website and login, or send an email to events@thinkorswim.com 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD). And also look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CDT and we will be at the Trader's Expo in Vegas 11/19 - 11/21. 
 
FHW 
fhwoption@hotmail.com
(* = FHW position)
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/29/2014 9:30:25 AM | 0 Comments
Prescott Tech Trouble Tuesday

Sorry, but we had technical difficulties exactly at the time this was being posted this morning! 

 

Tuesday, 10/28/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
- Today is the 301st day of 2014. Today's Birthdays: Jonas Salk (1914); Bowie Kuhn (1926-1984); Dennis Franz (1944); Bruce Jenner (1949). It was on this day, in 1492, that Columbus discovered Cuba - wonder if he had a celebratory cigar? On 10/28/1929 the Dow Jones plummeted 38.33 points (13%) to finish at 260.64, then in 1997 the Dow gained 337.17 points (5%), the day after (27th) it dropped 554.26 points (7%). And in 1989 the Oakland A's swept the San Francisco Giants in the earthquake/BART series. Go Giants! 
- The 30-year bonds (/ZBZ4) after touching almost 144 last week, are now trading 141'24, dropping another point lower than a week ago as the equity markets rallied. The emini S&P (/ESZ4*) are trading near the 1963 level, about 55 points higher than last week's levels which was 40 points higher than the week before that. Oh yes, we did already say the equities had been rallying! Oil (/CLX4*) has continued lower, now trading in the 81.50 range, and the price at the pump has also started to fall - now under $3.00 in Prescott.  Gold (/GCZ4*) is about $3 higher this morning, but has been dropping, and the "soft" commodities (/ZCZ4, /ZWZ4 & /ZSZ4) have had some major intraday rallies. Corn, for instance was  The big sell-off in all asset classes had upticked the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) spiking to highs (30-ish on 10/13) not seen in a couple of years, but the overall rally has it flattening back into the 18 handle, dropping over 15% on Monday alone. Small Caps led the way on Monday, with the RUT 2000 up almost 1.2%. Will the rally continue as the earnings announcements pick-up-pace? Can the SPUs get back over our birthyear (1951)? The VIX is back to where it started the month of October (16 ish) as are the SPUs (1958 ish). 
- Possible stock movers and shakers: Twitter (TWTR) had nothing to tweet about in their earnings, the shares got slammed after the close. Kohl's (KSS) is also looking much lower, whereas Madison Square Garden (MSG) is going to be higher. We thought MSG was Monosodium glutamate? Just about all of the other equities also look to open higher. 
Today's economic events: 
FOMC meeting begins
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Durable Goods
Redbook Chain Store Sales
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Richmond Fed Mfg.
Consumer Confidence
State Street Investor Confidence Index
Results of $29B, 2-Year Note Auction
Notable earnings before today's opening: ACI*, AET, AGCO, AIXG, ALR, AME, AMTD*, AN, AXE, BP, CAS, CIT, CMI, CNC, CNX, COH, CPLA, CRY, CVLT, CYNO, DD, DIN, ECL, ENTG, FCX, FDP, FLWS, FMER, GLPI, GLW, HCA, HMC, HOT, HRS, ICON, IIVI, IPGP, LH, MDSO, MLM, MMC, MSM, MSO, MWV, NBL, NCI, NVS, PCAR, PCG, PES, PFE, PH, POR, RDWR, SAIA, SAVE, SCHN, SCOR, SHW, SIRI, SNCR, ST, SYRG, TECH, TKR, TRW, TTS, TWI, UBS, UTHR, VDSI, VRTS, VSH, WAB, WHR, XYL.
And after today's close: AEC, AFG, AFL, AJG, AMCC, AMP, APC, ARI, AZPN, BGFV, BLDP, BOOM, BXP, CAP, CBT, CEB, CHMT, CHRW, CINF, CRAY, DLR, DNB, DYAX, EA, EIX, EPR, EQR, ESRX, EXP, EXTR, FARO, FB*, FEIC, FISV, GFIG, GILD, GPRE, HIW, HLIT, HTA, HTS, HURN, INAP, INVN, IPHI, KEYW, KIM, KONA, MAC, MAR, MCK, MRCY, MWA, NANO, NFX, OI, PEI, PLT, PNRA, PSMT, RJET*, ROG, RPXC, SKT, SM, SWI, TQNT, TRN, TSS, UDR, ULTI, USNA, VRSK, VRTX, WDC, WES, WGP, WNC, WSH, WTS, WYNN, X, XCO, XOOM, ZLTQ.
 
"He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." -- Jim Elliott
 
 - Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
Look for us at the upcoming Market Drive in Los Angeles on November 1st and the Trader's Expo in Las Vegas 11/19 - 11/21, and the daily Swim Lesson Chat room (10:30 CDT) - see ya there. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
 
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/28/2014 5:34:41 PM | 0 Comments
Bootlegging vs Hospitality?

 

Monday, October 27, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA
 
Caesars Entertainment Corp (CZR) is the world's most geographically diversified hotel/hospitality/casino/entertainment company. The company was founded in Reno, Nevada, more than 75 years ago, and although we own some land in Reno, have never been to their Reno resorts. We have, however, been going to their gigantic Caesar's Palace facility in Las Vegas for decades, and are always amazed at the incredible crowds not only in the casino, but all of their fabulous restaurants and stores. The main corporation has grown through development of new resorts, huge expansion projects at existing ones, and acquisitions, now operating resort/casinos on three continents. Caesars did almost $10 billion in gross revenues in 2013, and through our own personal due diligence have found their operations to be above-board, with wonderful facilities, great employees, fluffy pillows and strong showers. Yes, we do have our priorities! 
 
We have had positions in the stock before, but haven't held any for quite some time. The last time was when one of their executives, who is a thinkorswim customer, gave us front-row tickets to the Cher concert in their fabulous Colosseum. We bought the stock at about $5.00, NOT just because of Cher, but had it called away a few months later at 7.50. Oddly enough it was our mom and Chicago based truck-driving brother-in-law back in the 1960s that first mentioned Caesars, as my mom enjoyed her gambling junkets to Las Vegas and our sister's husband was one of the original investors. What, you are now wondering, would a fellow in Chicago that owned and operated a trucking company have to do with a Las Vegas casino? Can you say UNION? It was the Central States Teamsters who loaned Caesar's founding father, Jay Sarno, the money to buy the land owned by Kirk Kekorian. So, yes, the early Caesar's Las Vegas days were quite the tangled web, with every possible intriguing investment tale being part of the story. From Organized Crime Task Forces and East coast mobsters; to the Perlman brothers' Lum's restaurant chain, Del Webb (PHM), Sheraton (HOT), and Hilton (HLT), Caesar's has about as interesting a history as any company with which we have ever been associated. 
 
But, associated we are, and although the stock doesn't pay a dividend, and the options are not very liquid with wide bid-ask spreads, we do like the story and the intrigue. The others mentioned above, along with old favorite Marriott (MAR), could also be better trading vehicles, with dividends and tighter bid/ask spreads. But, we don't think any violent crimes, gambling "oddities" or guys named Vinny have been associated with Caesar's for decades. And, we will be at Caesar's again during November monthly expiration week, which will probably delay any new hotel/hospitality/entertainment investment until then. 
 
"When I sell liquor, its called bootlegging; when my patrons serve it on Lake Shore Drive, its called hospitality” -- Al Capone
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time. We will also be at the Market Drive in Los Angeles on 11/1 and at the Trader's Expo in Vegas 11/19-11/21.
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/27/2014 9:16:06 AM | 0 Comments
Earnings, earnings, earnings...

 

Thursday, October 23, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA
 
- Today is the 296th day of 2014 - where did the year go? Last week with the SPUs (/ESZ4*) struggling in the 1850 range, we stated "So, how bad can our overall economy really be?" Had you been listening to most of the financial know-it-alls and market bears you would have thought the world was coming to some kind of ebola driven end. Well, here we are staring back up at 1950, not, as many were predicting, 1750. What caused the rally? Was it a continued dovish stance at the Fed? Apple (AAPL*) earnings? Oil (/CL) being $20 from recent highs? Two wild-card teams making it to the baseball World Series? Who knows! Hopefully you listened to what we said and possibly adjusted using partials, and if we do get close to 1950 (currently trading 1940) again, use partials to adjust some long positions once more. This is a much tougher game if you listen to the media marvels instead of doing your own due diligence and believing in yourself.   
- Last week (early Thursday morning) our overnight SPU alerts went off at both 1830 and 1855, last night we were alerted only to the upside at 1840. Yes, after the big sell off into the close on Wednesday, we were somewhat surprised. Oil didn't wake us because it didn't trade under 80.00 as it did last week, although it did get close (80.05). And the bonds stayed in a relatively close range as well and are now trading slightly lower - hovering just over 142. 
- The list of earnings announcements and economic news events is as long today as ever, and tomorrow is the weekly expiration - so PLEASE PAY ATTENTION!
- Today's possible movers: Apple (AAPL*) looks to open higher, and Nokia (NOK), Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE), Celgene (CELG), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), and Tractor Supply (TSCO) all reported better and look higher. Eli Lilly (LLY) and Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) came in lower than expected and are trading lower. At 10:00 AM Central Time the Fed will announce the amount of 2-year, 5-year and 7- year notes to be auctioned Oct. 28-30, so look for some possible movement in the 30s (/ZBZ4) and 10s (/ZNZ4). 
 - Today is another HUGE day in economic events:
Initial Jobless Claims
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
FHFA House Price Index
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Leading Indicators
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
- Notable earnings before the open: AAL, AB, ACAT, AEP, ALK, ALV, ALXN, ARG, ASPS, AVT, BBW, BC, BCC, BHE, BKU, BMS, CAB, CAM, CAT, CCE, CELG, CFX, CHKP, CLI, CMCSA, CMS, CRI, CRS, CS, CSH, CVE, CWEI, DAN, DGX, DLX, DNKN, DO, DPS, EQM, EQT, FAF, GM*, GMT, GPI, GRUB, HERO, HUB.B, IMAX, IVC, JAH, JAKK, JBLU, JNS, KKR, LAZ, LLY, LO, LSTR, LTM, LUV, MDP, MHO, MINI, MJN, MMM, MTRN, NLSN, NOK, NUE, NWE, ORI, OSIS, OSTK, OXY, PCP, PENN, PHM, PLD, POT, PRLB, PTEN, QSII, RCI, RCL, RS, RTN, RYL, SIAL, SILC, SJR, SLAB, SONS, SQNS, STC, TDY, TROW, UA, UAL, UFS, UNP, USG, UTEK, WCC, WSO, YNDX, ZMH;
and after today's close: ADES, ALGN, ALTR, AMZN, BAS, BJRI, BLDR, BMRN, CB, CBI, CERN, CLMS, CLNE, CNMD, CPWR, CTCT, CYN, DECK, DLB, DV, ECHO, ELY, EW, FET, FII, FLS, FSL, GHL, GIMO, HBHC, HUBG, HWAY, IM, INFA, JNPR, KLAC, LOGM, LSCC, MSFT*, MTSN, MXIM, MXWL, N, NCR, NTGR, OLN, P, PACB, PCCC, PDFS, PEB, PFG, PFPT, POL, QLIK, RMD, RUBI, RVBD, SHOR, SIVB, SPNC, SRCL, SWFT, SWN, SYNA, VMI, VRSN, WOOF, WRB, WRE, WRI.
Current prices: 
E-mini S&P Futures  1,934.25  (+0.48%)  
E-mini DOW Futures  16,494  (+0.42%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  3,969.50  (+0.51%)  
US Dollar Index (/DXZ4) 85.739  (unch)  
10-yr T-Notes  127-000  (-0.09%) 
 
"Numbers are numbers, nothing more nothing less. But in this game all the numbers are tied together, as all the box prices have to be wrapped around their real value." HUH (OEX pit circa 1986) 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink- like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD)
The next Market Drive event will be in Los Angeles on November 1st and Houston on November 8th. - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive. 
The next Trader's Expo is in Las Vegas - November 19 - 21. Hope to see you at one of the events.
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/23/2014 9:19:46 AM | 0 Comments
Maple syrup on Doritos?

 

Wednesday, October 22, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
A timely reprint from this time frame in 2011...
 
A couple weeks ago, as we ate a Wisconsin breakfast including mostly farm fresh locally produced goods, we mentioned the Maple Syrup from our Rhinelander neighbor/farmer Fredrickson's Balsam Woods, and how great the warmed-up and gooey syrup tasted on top of the morning pancakes. Mentioning a few of the famous "toppers" from Aunt Jemima and others, we wondered about the mass-produced syrups and what most breakfast eaters were actually pouring on their early morning goodies. 
 
Okay, here is the list of ingredients on the back of the typical "maple syrup" bottle: INGREDIENTS: CORN SYRUP, HIGH FRUCTOSE CORN SYRUP, WATER, CELLULOSE GUM, CARAMEL COLOR, SALT, SODIUM BENZOATE AND SORBIC ACID (PRESERVATIVES), ARTIFICIAL AND NATURAL FLAVORS, SODIUM HEXAMETAPHOSPHATE. And, as we also mentioned a couple weeks ago, if there ever really was an Aunt Jemima (there wasn't), we are certain she would be spinning in her grave. Actually Aunt Jemima was a 1889 creation of Chris Rutt and Charles Underwood, at the Pearl Milling Company, which, after a few changes, was taken over and registered with the famously friendly Aunt Jemima trademark in 1937 by the new owners, Quaker Oats Company. 
 
Although up until 1966, the "large, gregarious face of an angel", Aunt Jemima, was only found on packages of instant pancake and waffle mix, when Quaker introduced the new syrup with the slogan "what took you so long?" Wow! Does this mean that we can't get real maple syrup anywhere other than at our Wisconsin summer home, just down the road from where the trees are actually "tapped" to produce the REAL tasty topping treat, or some similarly small local producer? Too bad we can't invest in our neighbors little farm, the fresh eggs and other home grown goods would be enough of a dividend. But, we can't do that. 
 
So, in checking into our cabinets a little further, and doing some deeper digging into who the real "owner" of Quaker Oats and several HUNDRED other "food group" makers, we were amazed to find Pepsi-Cola (PEP), is responsible for as wide an array of products as we have ever stumbled upon. We hate to take the other side of a Warren Buffett trade, as he is especially fond of (read: massively long) Coca-Cola (KO), but when comparing the two gigantic companies, sorry Warren, we think Pepsi has a better batch of darlings of the diners and drinkers markets. Not much volatility in a company like Pepsi, so options may have to be sold a month out (Decembers), but the strangle "wrapped around" the stock price looks okay - which would include a covered call against the newly purchased stock and a naked short put-or-two. The stock has been relatively flat after coming down from July highs of almost $70 (now almost $94!), it did dip down to $58.50 on 10/3, but is trading in the $62.50 range. It looks like lots of others are selling straddles and strangles, as the open interest in the around-the-moneys is pretty big (for an equity with low vol). And, yes, we have been known to invest in companies that we do business with, but this one is probably the one that we deal with (read: eat and drink) the most. Of course the 3.25% 
dividend (now 2.8%) is also a nice plus, but in piling up all the products coming from Pepsi, our whacky mind made us wonder what Aunt Jemima would taste like on Doritos? 
 
"This is the tree that that syrup came from." -- Bob Fredrickson (owner of Balsam Woods Farm)
"Can we hug it?" -- FHW 
 
Remember the Los Angeles Market Drive event on 11/1. To sign up go to the TD Ameritrade website and login. 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD) 
And also look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CDT and we will be at the Trader's Expo in Vegas 11/19 - 11/21. 
 
FHW 
fhwoption@hotmail.com
(* = FHW position)
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/22/2014 9:20:16 AM | 0 Comments
QE in China?

 

Tuesday, 10/21/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
- Today is the 294th day of 2014 and the 30th day of the autumn. Today's Birthdays: Manfred Mann (1940); Elvin Bishop (1942); Carrie Fisher (1956); Jade Jagger (1971). It was on this day, in 1879, that Thomas Edison perfected the carbonized filament light bulb.
- China's growth has slowed, so they announced a "stimulus package" of their own. How do you say Quantitative Easing in Chinese? At the same time, Mel Watt, the chief housing regulator in the U.S., announced a new program which would make it easier for home buyers to get lower rate loans with much smaller down payments. Isn't THAT what started OUR problems? 
- The 30-year bonds (/ZBZ4) after touching almost 144 overnight, are now trading 142'23, still 5 full points above where they were just a few weeks ago. The emini S&P (/ESZ4*) are trading near the 1910 level, 40 points higher than last Tuesday's 1870 neighborhood. Oil (/CLX4*) has continued lower, now trading in the 83 handle, and the price at the pump has also started to fall. Gold (/GCZ4*) is about $35 higher than last week, upticking big this morning, and the "soft" commodities (/ZCZ4, /ZWZ4 & /ZSZ4) also have continued to rally. The big sell-off in all asset classes had upticked the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) spiking to highs (30-ish on 10/13) not seen in a couple of years, but the overall rally has it flattening back into the 18 handle, dropping over 15% on Monday alone. Small Caps led the way on Monday, with the RUT 2000 up almost 1.2%. Will the rally continue as the earnings announcements pick-up-pace? Can the SPUs get back over our birthyear (1951)? The VIX back to 12? Will the Chicago Bears ever win at Soldier Field? Royals or Giants? 
- Possible stock movers and shakers: Sunedison (SUNE*), and Bank of America (BAC) look to open higher today, as do Apple (AAPL*), Harley (HOG), Travelers (TRV) and Texas Instruments (TXN). Whereas Verizon (VZ*), Coca Cola (KO), and Blackberry (BBRY*) are pointing lower. 
 
Today's economic events: 
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Redbook Chain Store Sales
Existing Home Sales
 
Notable earnings before today's opening: ABG, AOS, APOL, ARMH, ATI, CP, CSL, EAT, GPK, HOG, ITW, KMB, KO, LMT, LPT, LXK, MAN, MCD, OMC, PNR, RAI, RF, SAH, SBNY, SNV, TRV, UTX, VZ*, WAT, XRS;
And after today's close: ABAX, ACC, ACE, BGS, BRCM, CBST, CLS, CNI, CREE*, DFS, DTLK, EFII, ETFC, ETH, EXAC, FBC, FTI, FULT, HA, IBKR, IEX, IRBT, ISRG, MANH, NBR, QDEL, RHI, SIX, SMCI, SONC, UIS, VASC, VMW, WCN, YHOO, ZIXI.
 
Current morning markets: 
E-mini S&P Futures  1,914.00  (+0.74%)  
E-mini DOW Futures  16,427  (+0.59%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  3,900.00  (+0.88%)  
US Dollar Index  85.186  (+0.27%)  
 
"I fooled around and fell in love..." -- Elvin Bishop 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
Look for us at the upcoming Market Drive in Los Angeles on November 1st and the Trader's Expo in Las Vegas 11/19 - 11/21, and the daily Swim Lesson Chat room (10:30 CDT) - see ya there. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/21/2014 9:18:09 AM | 0 Comments
A better "crap-shoot" if you get your prices!

 

Monday, October 20, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
Okay, after all of the hullaballoo and market blood-letting, who is still around to have some more fun in the US equity markets? Anyone recently collect some quaterly dividends? Anyone own equities still at lower net prices because of having sold options against the stock while collecting dividends? Yes, indeed your long portfolio might have taken a hit, but had you been long for the last few years AND selling options, your cost basis on equites is still probably lower than their current and recently depressed prices. "Current and recently"? Isn't that kind of redundant? Yes, but kind of redundant also doesn't make much sense. By "current" we mean the stock's acual price as of right now, and by "recently" we mean where the price is vs a week-or-two ago. 
 
Anyway, we have "recently" been stressing NOT to take on any new long positions, and to perhaps even cut back via partials or some other form of hedge. Had you done that with the SPUs (/ESZ4*) up near 2,000, you would be smiling with them now down near 1880. We also consistently stress one of the most relevant elements of this investment game and that is to TRADE WHAT YOU KNOW AND KNOW WHAT YOU TRADE - and perhaps even have some personal relationship. What do we mean by "personal relationship"? How about checking the stack of bills on your desk or all of the stuff in your kitchen and bathroom cabinets? Perhaps your garage or the refrigerator and liquor downstairs in your in-home tavern? Maybe even stores where you shop, gas stations you pull-into, banks where your money is kept and airlines that you prefer. THOSE are companies that you obviously know and love; if they pay a dividend, have enough liquidity and option open interest, and if you NEED to own some equities, then why not them? We realize that this is not the first time we have mentioned this, nor will it be the last. But it IS THAT IMPORTANT! 
 
All of this also depends, of course, on your specific and personal demographics, meaning that a 65-year old in Kansas should probably not trade like a 22 year old on either coast. But no matter your lot-in-life, you should always stick to what you know and do best. Another trading particular that becomes even more important in volatile markets when bid/ask spreads might widen, is getting your best price on entry, adjustment and closing orders. Demographics don't matter when your are talking pricing! Getting your best price doesn't matter who or where you are. We have found that the battle between the exchanges and the retail paper flow has never been as heated, therein the prices that retail customers are getting has never been better - but ONLY IF YOU WORK YOUR ORDERS! If, for instance, you want to sell a 10 lot of puts and their market is .40 - .50, why not enter a small partial at .47 or .48? If not filled in a few minutes and the underlying doesn't move much, then enter another small partial at .45 or .46. If filled at any of those prices, then add another small partial just over (or under if buying), that fill price. If you can get a few pennies better fill on a good percentage of your orders, it just might be more than your commissions over the long term. 
 
"This ain't an art or a science, it's a crap shoot. But the odds are better if you get YOUR price!" - MCG (OEX pit circa 1986) 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time. We will also be at the Market Drive in Los Angeles on 11/1 and at the Trader's Expo in Vegas 11/19-11/21.
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/20/2014 9:09:23 AM | 0 Comments
Keep Calm and Trade On!

 

Thursday, October 16, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA
 
- Today is the 289th day of 2014 and the 25th day of autumn. Last week we stated "It has now been 2,040 days since the March 2009 SPU lows of about 666, and that evil number has been tossed around of late as the more recent market has stumbled. But, since those dreadful lows, the S&P has soared 195%, and we hope you took advantage of the incredible Fed fed rally." Is this a new bottom? Remember that in 2008/2009 we were plagued with much broader financial concerns with brokers (Lehman and Bear Stearns) imploding and the Fed bailout bringing about the first of the government's QEs. We just drove over 2,000 miles across the heartland of this great nation and after making the drive for over 40-years, have never seen as many trucks on the road and on rail cars, or the motels and restaurants as busy. So, how bad can our overall economy really be?  
- Setting overnight SPU (/ESZ4*) alerts on our cell phone is commonplace, but having the high-side alert (1855) go off at 2:13 am, and the lowside alert (1828) ring at 4:40 am doesnt happen very often. Oil too set an alert when it went under 80.00, but the 30-year bonds stayed "calm" barely up a couple points when they reached an overnight high of 146'07 (now trading 145'08). The emini SPUs are now hanging around 1826 over 10 handles from their overnight lows of 1915, and oil (/CLX4) is 80.32. Gold (GCZ4*) has been the most sedate of all the overnight movers, with a relatively narrow 9 point range (1236 - 1245) now trading 1239. Yesterday's VIX rally (up almost 16%) to 26.25 brought some fear back to the market, but the bonds hitting 148 bringing the yield (if you want to call it that) down to 2.91%, while the 10s and 5s "yields" fell to 2.13% and 1.33%. 
- Oil and Nat Gas (/NGX4) EIA Inventory numbers both come out today, so look for some movement in those. Jobless claim and Housing numbers are also released, so this could be another "doozy-of-a-day". We used to say "Keep your hands inside the boat" on crazy days, but our new slogan might be "Keep Calm and Trade On". Just stay small and nimble.
- Today's possible movers: Netflix (NFLX) - their numbers were weak and their 60,000,000 shares are trading $120 lower, if you do the math - that is a major market hair-cut! J.D. Power says auto sales in the US will reach record highs, so there might be some movement in Ford (F*), General Motors (GM*) and the new Fiat Chrysler (FCAU); Goldman Sachs (GS), Baxter (BAX), Unitd Health (UNH) reported better; while Amercan Express (AXP), Las Vegas Sands (LVS*) and eBay (EBAY) all came in weaker than expected. 
 - Today is a HUGE day in economic events:
Fed's Plosser: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook 
Initial Jobless Claims
Industrial Production
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Philly Fed Business Outlook
NAHB Housing Market Index
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
EIA Petroleum Inventories
Fed's Kocherlakota Speech
Treasury International Capital
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
- Notable earnings before the open: ADS, BAX, BBT, BHI, BX, CY, DAL*, DHR, DOV, FCFS, FCS, FITB, FRC, GS, GWW, HLSS, HOMB, MAT, NTCT, ORB, PM, PPG, PVTB, SNA, SON, SVU, SYNT, 
 
TSM, TZOO, UNH, VAC, WBS, WGO;
and after today's close: AMD, ASBC, ATHN, CCK, COF, CPHD, CYT, GOOG, PBCT, QLGC, SLB, SNDK, SYK, WAL, WDFC, WTFC, XLNX.
 
Current prices: 
E-mini S&P Futures  1,824.75  (-1.19%)  
E-mini DOW Futures  15,851  (-0.97%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  3,703.00  (-1.31%)  
Crude Oil  80.31  (-1.80%)  
10-yr T-Notes  129-000  (+0.53%)  
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink- like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD)
The next Market Drive event will be in Los Angeles on November 1st and Houston on November 8th. - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive. 
The next Trader's Expo is in Las Vegas - November 19 - 21. Hope to see you at one of the events.
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/16/2014 9:12:21 AM | 0 Comments