What's Frank Thinking? rss
Two years? Nothing has changed?

 

Wednesday, April 16, 2014, Prescott, AZ., USA
 
This is an incredibly accurate blog - what is really amazing is that is a reprint from almost exactly two years ago!  
 
"Sorry - total brain cramp / hump day. Could it be the Mid-week blues? The fact that we recently sent in the corporate tax checks? Or because we will soon be doing the same for the personal year-end tax junk? What is (are) the reason(s) for our brainless plight. Maybe the markets are making us mad? Wow, that was some serious alliteration. If we can cleverly construct a sentence with the same consonant sound or sound group to be so alliterative, why the brain cramp worries? And that isn't it anyway, as we are actually having a banner year! It is, after all, one of our favorite days of the week, Hump Day, and because of the recent market movement (mostly higher), our short-term positions look pretty good and our long-termers look great. In fact many of both our shorts and longs are looking quite dandy! How can that be? It is called "PREMIUM" and despite the fact that the VIX has been trading at such low levels for such an extended period, the "juice" wasn't too bad, especially when oftentimes legging into straddles and strangles on relatively large swings. 
We constantly stress the importance of the longer term goal of attempting to gather enough short term premium to end up with a fantastic yearly return, and even with the VIX in the doldrums, it can still be done. When you have options sold on both sides of the market on over 40 different underlyings (now only 27), some in ratios against stock, a few verticals, and some naked, the positive theta really starts to add up. But wait-a-second, we thought we were having a brain cramp? It must be the thought of eroding option premium dancing in our heads that shook out the cobwebs."
 
"Premium is premium, just sell it and shut-up!" -- RQ to GUR - OEX pit circa 1987 
 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink 
or on Linkedin (LNKD) - remember the upcoming Market Drives are in DC in May and Chicago in June -  
go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive for more info and to sign up.
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com  
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/16/2014 8:54:21 AM | 0 Comments
TAX DAY - Passover, Easter and monthly expiration

 

TAX DAY, 2014, Portland, Oregon, USA, 
 
- The eminis futures - or what we refer to as the SPUs (/ESM4*), after bouncing between 1825 - 1860 last week are still in the 1829 range, so in spite of all the bragging by the bears, no big deal to the downside - at least not yet! And, once again, even if they do crack the important 1800 level to the downside, we must remember where they were a year ago - 1500! The very same SPUs were in the 1100 range in 2011, the only reason we recall that is we had to look back to that year just yesterday to find some stock purchases for our Chicago based accountant - who is still not happy with us, especially being away from our desk at tax time! However, after more than doubling since 2009, along with the weakness out of China, and all kinds of worrisome events around the world, don't be surprised if we do have a some short-term overall market set-backs. The bonds (/ZBM4) are still hovering around 134'12, breaking and staying over the 131 - 134 rut they have been in for weeks. Natural Gas (/NGK4) is also trading a few ticks over its price point of last week (4.58), and gold (/GCM4), which was over 1350 about a month ago, and was trading near 1315 last week, is being severely beaten down this morning - now in the 1292 handle, down some 34 bucks! Oil (/CLK4) was near 101 last week, but the Russian/Ukraine tensions had run it up to over 104, and it is lower this morning by almost a dollar - down to 103.11.
- Facebook (FB*) and Apple (AAPL*) look slightly higher this morning, as does Coca-Cola (KO), which announced Q1 EPS of 44 cents, at the consensus, with Q1 revenue of $10.58 billion was higher than the estimates of $10.55 billion. Google (GOOG) is also pointing higher as Jeffries kept its "Buy" rating in place and raised its price target on the stock to $700 from $650.
-  Not only is it TAX DAY but Passover begain yesterday at sundown, and the Jewish holiday celebrating the Exodus of the ancient Israelis from Egypt will have an eight-day run. This is also April monthly expiration week, but it ends with the Christian Good Friday holiday, so expiration is a day early, if you have any questions that need fast action in reference to any stock/option/futures/forex position - call the trade desk at 866 839 1100.  
 
- Today's economic events:
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Consumer Price Index
Empire State Mfg Survey
Redbook Chain Store Sales
Treasury International Capital
Business Inventories
NAHB Housing Market Index
 
Notable earnings before the opening: CMA, INFY, JNJ, KO, NTRS;
and after today's close: ADTN, CSX, IBKR, INTC, LLTC, YHOO.
 
“And Moses spake unto the children of Israel, that they should keep the passover.” -- The Bible
"Do not abandon yourselves to despair. We are the Easter people and hallelujah is our song.”-- Pope John Paul ll
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
And come join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - 10:30 - 1:30 Central time.
Information and to sign up for an upcoming Market Drive event (next one is in Washington, DC on May 3rd) - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/15/2014 8:58:36 AM | 0 Comments
TAX DAY - Passover, Easter and monthly expiration

 

TAX DAY, 2014, Portland, Oregon, USA, 
 
- The eminis futures - or what we refer to as the SPUs (/ESM4*), after bouncing between 1825 - 1860 last week are still in the 1829 range, so in spite of all the bragging by the bears, no big deal to the downside - at least not yet! And, once again, even if they do crack the important 1800 level to the downside, we must remember where they were a year ago - 1500! The very same SPUs were in the 1100 range in 2011, the only reason we recall that is we had to look back to that year just yesterday to find some stock purchases for our Chicago based accountant - who is still not happy with us, especially being away from our desk at tax time! However, after more than doubling since 2009, along with the weakness out of China, and all kinds of worrisome events around the world, don't be surprised if we do have a some short-term overall market set-backs. The bonds (/ZBM4) are still hovering around 134'12, breaking and staying over the 131 - 134 rut they have been in for weeks. Natural Gas (/NGK4) is also trading a few ticks over its price point of last week (4.58), and gold (/GCM4), which was over 1350 about a month ago, and was trading near 1315 last week, is being severely beaten down this morning - now in the 1292 handle, down some 34 bucks! Oil (/CLK4) was near 101 last week, but the Russian/Ukraine tensions had run it up to over 104, and it is lower this morning by almost a dollar - down to 103.11.
- Facebook (FB*) and Apple (AAPL*) look slightly higher this morning, as does Coca-Cola (KO), which announced Q1 EPS of 44 cents, at the consensus, with Q1 revenue of $10.58 billion was higher than the estimates of $10.55 billion. Google (GOOG) is also pointing higher as Jeffries kept its "Buy" rating in place and raised its price target on the stock to $700 from $650.
-  Not only is it TAX DAY but Passover begain yesterday at sundown, and the Jewish holiday celebrating the Exodus of the ancient Israelis from Egypt will have an eight-day run. This is also April monthly expiration week, but it ends with the Christian Good Friday holiday, so expiration is a day early, if you have any questions that need fast action in reference to any stock/option/futures/forex position - call the trade desk at 866 839 1100.  
 
- Today's economic events:
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Consumer Price Index
Empire State Mfg Survey
Redbook Chain Store Sales
Treasury International Capital
Business Inventories
NAHB Housing Market Index
 
Notable earnings before the opening: CMA, INFY, JNJ, KO, NTRS;
and after today's close: ADTN, CSX, IBKR, INTC, LLTC, YHOO.
 
“And Moses spake unto the children of Israel, that they should keep the passover.” -- The Bible
"Do not abandon yourselves to despair. We are the Easter people and hallelujah is our song.”-- Pope John Paul ll
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
And come join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - 10:30 - 1:30 Central time.
Information and to sign up for an upcoming Market Drive event (next one is in Washington, DC on May 3rd) - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/15/2014 8:58:29 AM | 0 Comments
The Apostles and expiration?

 

Monday, April 14, 2014, Portland, Oregon, USA 
 
Yesterday was Palm Sunday, which means this is the final week of Lent for the Roman Catholic community - whew! And, with this Friday being Good Friday, that means the April monthly expiration day will be the day before, or Maundy (Holy) Thursday for equities and Wednesday/Thursday for many indices. So, as the long-ago Last Supper was being hosted (no pun intended) by the Apostles, this year's last supper, for team FHW, will include a quiet dinner at home in Prescott while dozens of April options expire. Not to mention enjoying some chocolate after making that this year's Lenten give-up! 
 
No, we won't be washing any feet or offering "alms" in the form of Maundy money in red and white purses, as they still do in the United Kingdom, but we will be preparing for Good Friday's and Easter Sunday's end-to-Lent. Although we did survive another meat-free Friday Lenten season, we also didn't eat any McDonald's (MCD) Filet-O-Fish sandwiches. Huh? What does that awful fast food fish have to do with Good Friday? Well, it was Pope Paul Vl, who relaxed the Catholic church's meat fasting rules in the 1960s, but a few years prior to that an enterprising McDonald's franchise owner located in a mostly Catholic section of Cincinnati, who, when struggling to sell burgers on Fridays, decided to try a specialty fried fish sandwich - hence the now extremely popular Filet-O-Fish! 
 
Whew, we go from the Last Supper and Apostles, to King Henry's son Edward Vl's reinstating, in 1547, "fast days by law" in the United Kingdom, to a McDonald's Filet-O-Fish, all in a couple of paragraphs! THAT could be a new personal best! We have had a great few days in Portland, and it's a good thing it is the end of Lent and April monthly options expiration, because we clearly need a little meat, chocolate AND some rest! 
 
If you don't understand any of the ramifications from this week's day-early expiration - CALL THE TRADE DESK @ 866 839 1100. 
 
"It's Lent you heathen, you have to eat fish on Friday. Besides the fried fish sandwich at Broker's Inn is world class." -- LDK (CBOE trading floor circa 1979) 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD)
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/14/2014 9:04:42 AM | 0 Comments
Thursday - on the road again...

 

Thursday, 04/10/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA
  
-  The SPUs (/ESM4*), as of this writing, are trading around 1864, off slightly from yesterday's close, but still relatively close to all time highs and that big 1900 that so many have been talking about.  Oil (/CLK4) had slipped back under the 100 point, but some Russian worries sent it over 103 on Wednesday, and it is trading at 103.30 in the early morning hours, while Nat Gas (/NGK4) is still in the 4.50 area, where it has been for over a month. Gold was trading down to 1285 last Thursday but has ralled and is up strong again this morning - trading near 1320. The bonds (/ZBM4) were trading near 134 two weeks ago, and after dropping a couple points are now right back in that 133 - 134 range. 
- Facebook (FB*) has been on a major run higher, after dipping to $55 just a few days ago, looks to open over $63 today. Next week is FINALLY April monthly expiration, and although it will have been a long five week cycle, it will end on an odd note. The Good Friday Easter holiday means the equities will expire on Thursday (Maundy Thursday) and the futures that commonly close on Thursday with a Friday morning settlement, will next week end the cycles trading on Wednesday with a Thursday morning settlement. If you don't understand any expiration consequences call the trade desk at 866-839-1100. 
- It's a travel day for us, as we are spending the day at a Scottsdale Marriott (MAR*) before our afternoon flight to visit the heir-to-the-mortgage at his college in Portland, Oregon. We will be staying in downtown Portland at the full-blown Marriott, hence the * after the stock symbol - TRADE WHAT YOU KNOW AND KNOW WHAT YOU TRADE, we are a firm believer in that old phrase. We are also beginning to wonder if there will ever be a marketplace where you can trade "points" in the various travel outfits that dole them out. We can see it now, trying to make a market in some derivative Southwest Airlines (LUV) "rewards" vs Marriott "points" pairs trade. 
 
Another big day in news events:
Chain Store Sales
Initial Jobless Claims
Import/Export Prices
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Fed's Evans: "Central Banking After the Great Recession"
Results of $13B, 30-Year Note Auction
Treasury Budget
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
Notable earnings before Thursday's open: CBSH, FDO, IGTE, PIR, RAD, SJR, TITN;
and after today's close: NQ
 
"There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it.”-- Oscar Wilde
 
Have a great weekend. 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD)
The next Market Drive events will be in Washington DC in May and Chicago in June - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/10/2014 9:04:42 AM | 0 Comments
$2,000 doorstop?

 

Wednesday, April 9, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA
 
Our never ending metals saga...
 
-- From April of 2004:
One of our first "investments" in gold was in our wild and crazy college years, thanks to a small inheritance, we bought our first home and our first Krugerands. These coins, however, weren't the first gold that we had purchased, as we grew up a numismatist that had started buying and collecting coins at an early age. Much of what we learned in respect to collecting coins and the precious metals was in the 1960s, from a wise old man, Jim, at Archie's Coin Shop on the North Side of Chicago (Edgebrook). One of our elderly mentor's favorite sayings was "As thick as Bretton Woods." At the time, we had absolutely no idea what old Jim was referring to, but we soon found out. 
-- From late 2008: 
It looks to be a very merry Christmas for us gold bugs, as our favorite precious metal has become even more precious, with the December contract bumping right up against $700 this morning. Silver at 10.00 is looking pretty shiny this morning as well. Can gold get to $1500? How about silver to twenty bucks? Geeze, it seems to us like the rally began in March when we were pleading with friends and customers alike to go long.
-- From August 9, 2011: 
Gold futures (/GC) have made one of their most dramatic weekly moves in history, by going from last week's $1,600 to it's overnight high of over $1,782 - now up almost $300 in the last month! So, yes, we have been a gold bug, numismatist, whatever you want to call it, for over 50 years. We remember thinking about selling some of our gold coins when we were leaving for college (it was about $50 an ounce), but thankfully our wise mother said, "just hold onto it, and let me know when you run out of money." We did run out of college "play money" but thanks to mom never sold any of our gold, and hopefully when the heir-to-the-mortgage leaves for college in just over a year, we won't sell any of it then either! Not unlike many of our equity positions, the short-term up-tick in volatility shouldn't shake you out, as it does many typical retail customers. As long as you continue to deal with a company or feel strongly about a certain stock, future, commodity or whatever, don't let the talking head nay-sayers change your mind. The analyst and supposed experts may, after all, have a vested interest ON THE OTHER SIDE!
-- From now:
Yes, we are still long the metals in all shapes and forms, even have some stock/options positions in a few metal related companies, over 3.7 million shares in one - long story. Time is still the most important element in long-term investing, and metals might sometimes become slightly "tarnished" but over-time they have always shined. Besides, the metals are an inflation hedge, fun to collect, and as Tommy Sosnoff once said, "a nice-sized bar makes a good door stop or wedding present." And, looking back to what we said in 2008 with gold at $700 about it possibly going to $1,500, as well as silver to $20 - well, just sayin'...
  
"The only real valuable thing is intuition." -- Albert Einstein 
 
"Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people." -- W. C. Fields 
 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink 
or on Linkedin (LNKD).
The next Market Drives are in DC in May and Chicago in June -  go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive for more info and to sign up.
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com  
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/9/2014 10:07:52 AM | 0 Comments
Huge IPO week?

 

Tuesday, April 8, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA, 
 
- Ponce de Leon (1460) and Shecky Green (1925) were born on April 8ths, as was Julian Lennon in 1963. Deaths on April 8th have been Henry Ford (F*), Ford Frick (1978), General Omar Bradley (1981), and singer Laura Nyro in 1997. 04/08/1974 was the day Hank Aaron hit homer number 715 to best Babe Ruth's record, and in 1979 the 204th and final episode of "All in the Family" was televised. 
- The eminis futures - or what we refer to as the SPUs (/ESM4*), after getting pummeled most of Monday (4/7); moving from an intra-day high of 1861 down to 1834.50, and closing near 1838, are trading slightly higher than yesterday's close, which was almost exactly the 1840 number that we mentioned in Monday's pre-market blog! Although the SPUs have given back much of this year's gains, we have to remember where they were a year ago - in the 1500 range! The bonds (/ZBM4) are still hovering around 133 - right where they were a week ago, although they did get treacherously close to the 134 level when the markets were at Monday's lows. Natural Gas (/NGK4) is also trading almost exactly where it was last week - near 4.45, and gold (/GCM4), which was over 1350 about 3-weeks ago, bounced between 1295 and 1305 most of Monday, but is trading up 14.00 to about 1312, as of this writing. Oil (/CLK4) remains in the 101 range of the last couple of weeks, although it briefly traded under 100 on Monday. Corn (/ZCK4) continued lower as did soybeans (/ZSK4), while wheat (/ZWK4) rallied. Bifurcation in the grains is not as rare as you would think, and we might get to hear some commodity and oil/gas stories in a couple weeks on the drive from Arizona to Wisconsin via New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Illinois. 
- If you are into IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) - 14 upstart companies are due to be priced through Thursday, making this week the busiest for such offerings since November 2007. Ally Financial (ALLY), which the US Treasury plans to sell $2.5B of shares, and hotel chain La Quinta (LQ), which intends to raise $725M, are among the standout newbies. We have stayed at La Quintas on a few occasions, and prefer to pay a little more for a Marriott (MAR*). A total of $4.8B in stock is projected to be sold in the offerings this week, which could put a damper on some older equities.
-  If you have any questions that need fast action in reference to any stock/option/futures/forex position - call the trade desk at 866 839 1100.  
 
- Today's economic events:
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Redbook Chain Store Sales
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
Results of $30B, 3-Year Note Auction
Fed's Kocherlakota Speech
Fed's Plosser: "Enhancing Prudential Standards in Financial Regulations" 
Fed's Evans: "Managing the Transition to Normality"
 
Notable earnings after the close: AA*, SAIC, WDFC.
 
"Wisdom is oftentimes nearer when we stoop than when we soar." -- William Wordsworth 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
And come join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - 10:30 - 1:30 Central time.
Information and to sign up for an upcoming Market Drive event (next one is in Washington, DC on May 3rd) - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/8/2014 8:49:09 AM | 0 Comments
Monday fish fry?

 

Monday, April 7, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
In preparation for our soon-to-come trek back to our summer home on Lake Thompson, in Rhinelander, Wisconsin, we made it down to the Valley of the Sun this past weekend and attended the Friday Night Fish Fry at our former Scottsdale parish - Blessed Sacrament. Being a member of the Knights of Columbus, we got to the church early and helped set up the meal, waited tables and cleaned up the mess afterwards. The Friday night fish fry we go to almost every week in Wisconsin is actually a buffet at the neighboring Holiday Acres Resort (www.holidayacres.com), and although fried cod and perch are on the menu, we usually go with the broiled variety, along with a few other delectables. 
 
The Midwest is considered the founding place for the Friday night fish fry, as the number of lakes in the region, and the large amount of settlers from Scandanavia and Germany, with Roman Catholic backgrounds, decades ago, brought their Lenten/Easter feasts from their homelands. The modern day Friday night fish fry is now a year-round event, and oftentimes consists of cod, perch, bluegill and walleye, along with German-style potato pancakes, creamy coleslaw and rye bread. It depends on the location of the meal; with the fish fry actually turning into a fish "boil" in the northeastern part of the state - like up in Door County, or a catfish fry along the Mississippi River. 
 
It is estimated that the typical Friday night fish fry is served at over 1,000 establishments in Wisconsin alone, from restaurants and bars, to churchs, lodges (Moose and Elk), and even the shore-side private variety with fish caught that day being fried-up over an open lakeside fire. We have enjoyed just about every variety, from all parts of the state. Gosh, we are still a full two-weeks away from our 2,000 mile drive to Wisconsin, but we are already getting "fired-up" for the summer, and working last Friday's parish fish fry aroused our Irish/Polish/German culinary desires even more-so. We would go back down to the Valley next weekend, but we will be visiting the heir-to-the-mortgage in Portland, Oregon. Do they know about the Friday night fish festivities up in the Northwest? We will definitely find out. 
 
The futures (/ESM4*) are selling off in the early hours this morning, currenly 1855. Will today begin the much anticipated 10% correction it seems that every market prognosticator is calling for? We don't know, or care, but a 20 handle end-of-the-day downtick - to about 1840, would be nice for some of us. Just sayin'... 
 
"We have bigger fish to sell." "Don't you mean to 'fry'"? "How do you 'fry' and option?" -- BAM and HUH (OEX pit circa 1986) 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD)
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/7/2014 8:59:09 AM | 0 Comments
Google Thursday

 

Thursday, 04/03/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA
  
-  The SPUs (/ESM4*), as of this writing, are trading around unchanged, but the last week's run up has been pretty impressive, as the emini futures went from 1841 to almost 1890, once again - new highs in not only the SPUs but in many of the popular indices. Oil (/CLK4) was over 101 last week, but has slipped back under the 100 point, and is currently trading at 99.30, while Nat Gas (/NGK4) is still in the 4.30 - 4.50 area, where it has been for the past month. Gold has continued to sell off, after trying to get back over 1300 last week, is now trading in th 1285 range, and silver (/SIK4), which was almost $22 in mid-March is now trading at 19.75. The bonds (/ZBM4) were near 134 last week, are now back to just under 132 - inside the range they have been in for weeks. The grains all had a nice short term rally, on the recent crop report, but have weakened over the last two days, with corn (/ZCK4*) trading just under 500.  
- Facebook (FB*) and Apple (AAPL*) both look to open slightly lower this morning, but this is after both have had a nice rally over the last week. Citigroup (C) is reportedly being investigated for problems with their Banamex Mexican banking unit, this could put some further pressure on the other banks and brokers - along with the XLF. Today is the day of the much anicipated Google (GOOG) split, in which one non-voting "C" share will be provided for each existing "A" share. This so-called "split" will add currency to the company coffers while keeping founders Serge Brin and Larry Page in complete control with over 55% of the votes with their own "B" shares. If you have any GOOG positions and don't understand any of the stock/option adjustments - call the trade desk at 866-839-1100.  
- Is the long-standing Dow Theory, which says the Transports and Dow Jones Industrials have to move in tandem to the upside for a bull market to continue, beginning to bifurcate? If so, it doesn't necessarily portend a major turn in the overall stock market, but it does give us some reason for concern. On the other hand, the bull run might continue as most other measurements, like advancers vs decliners and the low VIX, are still looking bullish. Sorry, but after 35 years in the industry, we have to admit that there is no way to tell where we are headed, and even the High Frequency (HFT) traders, Institutional guys, and Market Makers have no idea. 
 
Another big day in news events:
Challenger Job-Cut Report 
Gallup US Payroll to Population
Initial Jobless Claims
Trade Balance
PMI Services Index
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Global Composite PMI
Global Services PMI
Money Supply
 
Notable earnings before Thursday's opening: GBX, PERY, RPM, SCHN;
and after today's close: GPN, MU, SEAC, SNX.
 
"If a business does well, the stock eventually follows." "Our favorite holding period is forever." - Warren Buffett 
 
Have a great weekend. 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD)
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/3/2014 9:03:28 AM | 0 Comments
Hip provided by JNJ...

 

Wednesday, April Fool's day plus one, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
We were going to talk of our now 24 year old metal hip, as we went under the knife on April 1st, 1990, but who, other than us, cares about our hip? Tens of thousands of hips and knees are replaced every year, and with the cost of full implant surgery ranging from $12,000 - $125,000, we thought there had to be a story somewhere under that still visible scar. 
 
There are several manufacturers of hip and knee implants; we have a DePuy model, and this replacement maker's history is very interesting, but they were purchased by Johnon & Johnson (JNJ) in 1998. JNJ was actually the first trading crowd on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) that we worked in, and we were in that pit the days of the Chicago Tylenol "scare" in 1982. So, the Johnson name is very near-and-dear not only to our heart, but to our hip - and pocketbook! We used to trade JNJ all the time, usually owned the stock (to collect the dividend) and were also usually short some strangles wrapped around the stock price. But we haven't had any JNJ positions in years - we think the stock was around $50.00 when we finally bid it farewell. 
 
Both the stock and the hip have been very good to us, so even though the stock has almost doubled since our last long position, we don't have any big drug companies in any of our long-term or main trading accounts, and might have to revisit the company. There are almost 3 billion shares "out", paying a 2.7% dividend, with a yearly range from about $78 to just under $98, so a pull-back in stock price might be anticipated - and awaited. The Fortune 100 company has an incredible story of success and they have about as broad a product line as any company with which we have ever been associated. In fact, they are a market leader in dozens of drugs and devices, and most of you know how much we like being involved with market leaders - especially ones that we have a personal involvement with, and our left hip is about as close as we can get!
 
"Elvis was the only man from Northeast Mississippi who could shake his hips and still be loved by rednecks, cops, and hippies." -- Jimmy Buffett
 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink 
or on Linkedin (LNKD) 
The next Market Drive is in Omaha - this Saturday (4/5/14) - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive for more info and to sign up.
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 4/2/2014 9:04:42 AM | 0 Comments