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Happy Thanksgiving - thank the ladies!

 

Thanksgiving Wednesday, 11/26/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA
A reprint from all the way back in 2003! 
 
Who to Thank?" 
 
Of the 18 married women who arrived in Plymouth on the Mayflower in late 1620, only four survived to see the fall of 1621. This first brave group of American women were clearly the cooks that prepared the meals that became the original feast of Thanksgiving. At the first Thanksgiving, which was more along the lines of a harvest festival than a day with any national or religious overtones, there were approximately 90 Native Americans, mostly Wampanoag Indians, celebrating with 55 Colonists. Of those, there were five teenage girls and 10 young children, including babies with no parents. That first three - day Thanksgiving/Harvest Festival was supplied mainly by the Indians, as they brought five deer and sundry fruits and vegetable, with the women cooking enough corn, fowl and cod to feed the entire party. 
 
After over 200 years, it was Sarah Josepha Hale that was actually responsible for the National Thanksgiving Holiday that we all enjoy today. Hale was the editor of a popular women's magazine, Godey's Lady Book, and as the mid-1800's United States was torn by slavery and the Civil War, it was Hale's belief, drive and perseverance that eventually brought the Holiday into being. In 1860, she wrote an impassioned editorial urging all the states and territories to celebrate the Holiday on the same day "so that there will be complete moral and social reunion of the people of America." 
 
Finally, in 1863, as the Civil War raged on, President Abe Lincoln declared a National day of Thanksgiving on the last Thursday of November and asked the country as a whole to "be thankful for it's bounties of nature and to come together in peace." The Holiday was seen as a success and even tied together the waves of immigrants coming to America at the turn of the century - making them feel more "American". The marketing and sales aspects of the Holiday weren't seen until 1939, when another war brought the Thanksgiving Day holiday to light. President Franklin Roosevelt declared the holiday to be celebrated on the fourth Thursday of November, to encourage earlier Christmas shopping. In 1941, Congress made this change permanent. 
 
Clearly it was America's first strong women; hard times, and wars that gave us Thanksgiving. Our thoughts should go back to those first Colonial Plymouth women that needed to clean, prepare, and cook, all while watching those 10 little Americans. We are now wondering if this is where the song "10 little Indians" came from?  As we celebrate this Thanksgiving with our families and friends in our safe and warm 2003 (2014) kitchens, it isn't Lincoln, Roosevelt or Congress that we should thank for this wonderful Holiday. But, our gratitude and recognition should instead go out to the 1800's brand of feminist Sarah Hale, and America's first group of hardy women that struggled through the 1620's version of Thanksgiving. Happy Thanksgiving! Thanks, ladies, we salute you.
 
"If the only prayer you ever say in your entire life is 'thank you', it will be enough.” -- Meister Eckhart 
 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD) 
And also look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CDT, and remember the trade shows in Orlando and NY in February. 
 
FHW 
fhwoption@hotmail.com
(* = FHW position)
What's Frank Thinking? | 11/26/2014 8:27:32 AM | 0 Comments
Turkey Week Tuesday - 2014

 

Turkey week Tuesday, 11/25/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
- Today's Birthdays: Andrew Carnegie (1835); Joe DiMagio (1914); John Larroquette (1947); and Chicago's 1st black mayor, Harold Washington, died on this date in 1987. In 1834, one of NY city's best restaurants offered a meal of soup, steak, coffee and half a pie for .12 cents! Alfred Nobel invented dynamite on this day in 1867, and in 1884 John Meyenberg patented evaporated milk. JFK was laid to rest at Arlington National Cemetary on this day in 1963, and on 11/25/1979, an American Airlines DC-10 crashed on take-off from Chicago O'Hare, killing 275 - we remember seeing fire trucks flying up Touhy Avenue. Then, last year, "The Hunger Games: Catching Fire" grossed $161 million becoming the biggest film ever released in November. 
- The 30-year bonds (/ZBH5) are now trading just under 141, a half-a-handle from where they were last week and still inside the relatively tight range they have been in for over a month. Gold (/GCF5) is back to the 1200 level, now trading just under that key price. Oil (/CLF5*) is trading near 76.21, just about where it was last week, as it too has become range-bound. The dollar (/DXZ4) remains strong in the 88 level, while the SPUs (/ESZ4*) are trading just under 2070. Well, over the last few months we have constantly questioned where the overall highs would be; when they got over 2000, we wondered "why not 2050?", now at 2070, can they get to 2100? Gosh, we can even remember when they hit 1900, we asked "why not our birthyear of 1951?". We are only a month from Christmas and then New Years, where will we end the year? Oh, if we only knew! 
- Possible stock movers and shakers: PBR*, VAL, NFLX, TIF, HRL, CASY, NUAN. 
- Today is a huge day for economic events:
ICSC Retail Store Sales
GDP Q3
Corporate Profits
Redbook Chain Store Sales
FHFA House Price Index
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Consumer Confidence
State Street Investor Confidence Index
Richmond Fed Mfg.
Results of $13B, 2-Year FRN Auction
Results of $35B, 5-Year Note Auction
 
- Notable earnings before today's opening: BECN, BWS, CBRL, CHS, CPB, DAKT, DANG, DSW, DSX, EV, FRED, HRL, LG, MOV, NJR, PLL, SIG, TECD, TIF, VAL, XCRA, YGE;
And after today's close: ADI, AVAV, BLOX, CTRP, CUB, HPQ, NMBL, PWRD, TIVO, VEEV, VNET, XNET.
- Current prices: 
 E-mini S&P Futures  2,069.25  (+0.08%)  
 E-mini DOW Futures  17,809  (+0.10%)  
 E-mini NASDAQ Futures  4,288.75  (+0.16%)  
 US Dollar Index  88.147  (unch)  
 Crude Oil  76.23  (+0.59%)  
 10-yr T-Notes  126-000  (+0.09%) 
 
"Teamwork is the ability to work together toward a common vision. The ability to direct individual accomplishments toward organizational objectives. It is the fuel that allows common people to attain uncommon results." -- Andrew Carnegie 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
Look for us in the daily Swim Lesson Chat room (10:30 CDT), and trade shows in Orlando and New York in February, 2015 - see ya there. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 11/25/2014 8:32:07 AM | 0 Comments
Fade a boring market? Dare ya!

 

Tuesday, 11/18/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
- Today's Birthdays: George Gallup (1901); Johnny Mercer (1909); Alan Shepard (1923); Linda Evans (1942); Jack Tatum (1948); JC Watts (1957).  Deaths: Chester A. Arthur (1886); Joseph P. Kennedy (1969); Jim Jones (1978). This was the day, in 1307, that William Tell shot an apple off his son's head, and in 1883 the Standard Time Zone was established by railroad companies in US and Canada. Walt Disney's (DIS) Mickey Mouse debuted in "Steamboat Willie" in 1928, and in 1987 the Chicago Cubs' Andre Dawson was the 1st player from a last-placed team to win the MVP. 
- The 30-year bonds (/ZBZ4) are now trading at 141'17, still inside the relatively tight range they have been in for weeks. Gold (/GCZ4*) has been the big mover of late - having gone from 1130 to 1200 in the last eleven days; it did bump it's head at 1204 overnight, but is now trading just under that important level at 1199. US equities eeked their way higher on Monday (11/17) on talk of some government stimulus in Japan and Europe, with German investor confidence rising to a 4-month high. The Dow finished up +0.07%, the S&P 500 was up +0.07%, while the NASDAQ was slightly lower, finishing down 0.37%. In fact, the S&P 500 reached its 42nd record high for the year, closing at 2,041.32, the emini futures (/ESZ4*) traded lower overnight but are now about unchanged. Oil (/CLX4*) has continued mostly lower, now trading in the mid-75 
range, well off it's 80 level of a few weeks ago. And who can forget the 108 oil in June? The dollar (/DXZ4) remains strong in the 88 level, but it has sold off overnight - now trading 87.73.
- Possible stock movers and shakers: TransCanada (TRP) might see some action with the soon-to-come senate vote on the Keystone XL pipeline. Macy's (M) was downgraded; Urban Outfitters (URBN) came in below estimates - trading lower overnight, and lots of retail numbers come out today, so look for some movement in the entire retail sector. SunEdison (SUNE*) looks to open higher, while Agilent (A) and Wells Fargo (WFC) might be lower (sorry Ben D.). 
- Today's scheduled economic events:
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Producer Price Index
Redbook Chain Store Sales
NAHB Housing Market Index
E-Commerce Retail Sales
Treasury International Capital
 
- Notable earnings before today's opening: CYRN, DKS, HD, JASO, MANU, MDT, TJX, VVTV;
And after today's close: GBDC, JACK, LZB, PETM, VIPS.
- Current prices:  
E-mini S&P Futures  2,039.00  (-0.04%)  
E-mini DOW Futures  17,620  (+0.02%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  4,210.00  (-0.05%)  
US Dollar Index  87.659  (-0.30%)  
Crude Oil  75.55  (-0.12%)  
 
"I could prove God statistically. Take the human body alone - the chances that all the functions of an individual would just happen is a statistical monstrosity." -- George Gallup
 
We will be traveling to the Trader's Expo in Las Vegas tomorrow and at the booth at the show the rest of the week, so our morning missives might be missing. 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).Look for us at the upcoming Trader's Expo in Las Vegas 11/19 - 11/21, and the daily Swim Lesson Chat room (10:30 CDT) - see ya there. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 11/18/2014 8:25:44 AM | 0 Comments
To call or be put? THAT is the question!

 

Monday, November 17, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
A reprint from Expiration Monday, November 14, 2011, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
"Monday, Monday, can't trust that day..." that song by The Mamas and the Papas could have added the word expiration to the lyrics. Although with all of the big mover and shaker equities, ETFs and Indices all now trading weekly options, every Monday could be a can't trust that day. But, after dealing in the mid-1970s, while on the CBOE trading floor only with quarterly expirations (and only call options), then monthlies and now weeklies, and doing it for over 35 years, we have survived an incredible amount of expiration Mondays - and every other day of the typical expiration week. 
 
So why should this expiration Monday and the ensuing week be any different? Well, there is an unusual expiration problem of a trade show - we have to drive to Las Vegas on Wednesday and spend the entire end of the cycle at the Bally's Paris (this year Caesar's) booth. November is also the final expiration before the final monthly, December, expiry, so a lot of end-of-the-year decisions are going to have to be made - and soon! Everyone thinks that September and October expirations have historically been whacky-ones, but we can recall a few November "doozies" as well. Will this be the almost end-of-the-year cycle in which we allow a lot of stock to be called away? From Alcoa Aluminum (AA* Nov 11s) all the way down the list to Sealy Corp (ZZ*) and the other 41 equities (now 52), ETFs and Indices in-between, we have dozens of "ats" and well-in-the-money calls sold that have been rolled for months (some years), along with dozens of puts, on a few stocks, that are still relatively close. 
 
When making the exercise/assignment decision, always consider the $15 fee per series. This is the charge whether a one-lot or a thousand, so if you can cover the short option position and sell (buy) the stock and the commission charges are less than the assignment fees, then by all means close out the stock/option position. To make the trade as opposed to allowing the assignment, depending on the quantity, you might have to "leg out" by doing one side without the other, and this is sometimes a tough trading task. Make sure both sides are able to be done relatively close to where you "need" to get out and that there is enough "size" on each side, although if the commission costs are less than the assignment, then the number of contracts must be just a few, so the options bid/ask size shouldn't be a problem. Many common stocks trade in penny wide bid/ask spreads, so if it is easier to put a bid/offer in-between on the options FIRST and then, when filled, make the stock trade, that is sometimes the play. However, you can also hold your mouse over the entire stock/option position and select the stock/option trade to be done simultaneously on the platform - for some this may be the best trade.
 
Also, if you are short a vertical spread that's short side is in the money, you will also now have to start making your trading decision, because at expiration the short side will be assigned and if your long side is still out of the money, you will just be assigned without the ability to exercise your out-of-the-money long side. If you have pre-set parameters, as you should, on closing out positions such as these that are in/out - do whatever you have to CONSISTENTLY do. Some traders will roll the dice and cover the short side early, hopefully allowing the long side to pick up some premium, but this would more-or-less be a multi-day leg, and would only be recommended for the very experienced and risk tolerant trader. Others will allow the assignment and then adjust from there, while others would have already closed it out when it got to the 10-days 'til expiration point. Everyone is different in the way they open/close/adjust postitions, all we can tell you is that whatever way you make these trades, do it the way you feel most comfortable and, be thankful the thinkorswim (AMTD*) trading platform allows all of the flexibility, and - KEEP THEM CONSISTENT!  
 
"If you dwell on statistics you get shortsighted, if you aim for consistency, the numbers will be there at the end." -- Tom Seaver 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time. We will be at the Trader's Expo in Vegas 11/19-11/21 and New York 2/15 - 2/17, also at the World Money Show in Orlando 2/5 - 2/7.
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 11/17/2014 8:02:30 AM | 0 Comments
Step by step, inch by inch...

 

Thursday, 11/13/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA
 
- Today's birthdays: Robert Louis Stevenson Scotland (1850); Mel Stottlemyre (1941); Whoopi Goldberg (1949). This was the day, in 1789, that Benjamin Franklin wrote "Nothing...certain but death and taxes." My goodness - if he only knew what we would be going through some 225 years later! The US issued its 1st gold certificates in 1865, and in 1933, the 1st "sit-down strike" took place on this day at the Hormel plant in Austin, MN. Nov.13,1979 was the day that Ronald Reagan announced his candidacy for President. Anyone else miss him - badly!? 
- Stocks finished barely lower on Wednesday (11/12) after closing at record highs for five consecutive sessions. Two weeks ago at this time the SPUs (/ESZ4*) were 1940, and we warned of them going back over 1950. Well, they got over 2043 overnight! Last week we stated: "Will 2,000 hold and can we hit new all-time highs before the end of the year? 2050 maybe?" Gosh, now that we are almost to 2050, is 2100 out of the question by year's end? Can we drop back under 2000 and test 1950? 1900? No one knows the answer, and if they claim they do - run away! 
- Oil has been suffering over the last couple of weeks - 80 now seems like a long time ago, as we have dropped from last week's 78 to currently testing 76.00 (76.03 overnight). Can oil get to Goldman's (GS) predicted 75 level? Is that where OPEC will throw in the towel or yell foul? The bonds are trading exactly where they have been for the last couple weeks - in the mid-141 range. There was a significant 10-year note auction on Wednesday ($24 billion) and there will be an auction today (1:00 pm Eastern) in the 30s of $16 billion, so look for some movement in the /ZBs. Gold (/GCZ4*) is trying to bounce this morning, as the dollar (/DXZ4) fades off the 88 level. Corn (/ZCZ4*) and the other "softs" have been as volatile as ever, with corn having .15 cent intraday swings - now trading near 380, after being 330 a month ago (10/13/14).
 - Today's possible movers: WMT, KSS, TY, CSCO, FB*, JCP, NTAP, BBRY*, PBR*, CZR*.  
 - Another big day for economic events:
Initial Jobless Claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
EIA Petroleum Inventories
Fed's Plosser 
Janet Yellen
Results of $16B, 30-Year Note Auction
Treasury Budget
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
- Notable earnings before the open: CLFD, ENZY, FLY, GIB, HIMX, HP, KSS, MMS, RSTI, RWLK, SBH, SPH, TDG, TYC, VIAB, VTNR, WMT;
and after today's close: AMAT, ELP, FRSH, HGR, JWN, PAAS, PRSS, SINA*, STRI, TUBE, VJET, WB, XON, YOKU*.
Current prices (5:30 AM AZ time): 
E-mini S&P Futures  2,040.50  (+0.22%)  
E-mini DOW Futures  17,616  (+0.22%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  4,207.50  (+0.27%)  
US Dollar Index  87.702  (-0.14%)  
Crude Oil  76.49  (-0.89%)  
10-yr T-Notes  126-000  (-0.02%)
 
"He who goes step by step always finds himself level with a step."-- Antonio Porchia   
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink- like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD)
The next Market Drive event is on Nov 22, in Naples, FL. - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive. 
The next Trader's Expo is in Las Vegas - November 19 - 21. Hope to see you in Vegas.
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 11/13/2014 8:53:57 AM | 0 Comments
11/12/14 - Are those sellers we see?

 

Wednesday, 11/12/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
Next week is November monthly expiration - PAY ATTENTION if you have any In-The-Money (ITM) or anything close, especially with all the dividends coming out. We usually take a historical look back closer to the first of the month, but here are some past 11/12s ...
Birthdays:
1889 - DeWitt Wallace - founded Reader's Digest 
1929 - Grace Kelly
1934 - Charles Manson
1945 - Al Michaels & Neil Young 
Events: 
 607 - Boniface lll ends his reign as Catholic Pope. 
1864 - Sherman begins his March to the Sea by burning down Atlanta, GA. 
1927 - Stalin becomes dictator of Russia
1933 - Nazi candidates receive 92% of the vote in Germany
1936 - Oakland Bay Bridge opens 
1946 - 1st Drive-Up bank teller "autobank" opens (in Chicago - no we weren't in line!) 
1954 - Ellis Island closed after processing more than 12 million immigrants since 1892
1979 - US halts Iranian oil imports and frezes Iranian assets
2001 - American Airlines flight 587 crashes in Belle Harbor, NY, killing 265
2004 - Scott Peterson convicted of murdering his wife, Laci. 
2013 - Last year it was 11/12/13
2014 - SPUs (/ESZ4*), oil (/CLZ4) and the dollar (/DXZ4) are lower, as gold (/GCZ4*), corn (/ZCZ4*) and the bonds (/ZBZ4) rally. 
Notable earnings before the open: ADT, AG, ARMK, BZH, CAE, CNCE, CSIQ, DWSN, ECA, ELOS, ENR, EZCH, FLO, M, MGAM, MRKT, MTLS, MTOR, PF, PLUG, RICE, ROK, SEAS, SLW, WUBA;
and after the close: APU, BRKS, CHMI, CNAT, CSCO, CYBR, FTD, FUEL, HTHT, IAG, JCP, NTAP, NTES, PLKI, PNNT, TCX, TTEK, UGI, WGL, WX, XONE.
 
"Murder this market!" "If you don't shut-up, I might murder you!" -- MCG and GUR (OEX pit circa 1987) 
 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD) 
And also look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CDT and we will be at the Trader's Expo in Vegas next week (11/19 - 11/21). 
 
FHW 
fhwoption@hotmail.com
(* = FHW position)Wednesday, 11/12/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
 
What's Frank Thinking? | 11/12/2014 8:46:51 AM | 0 Comments
Hug a Veteran's day

 

Hug a Veteran's Day Tuesday, 11/11/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
- Today's Birthdays: George S. Patton (1885); Kurt Vonnegut (1922); Jonathan Winters (1925); Jesse Colin Young (1944); and Fuzy Zoeller (1951). This was the day, in 1620, that 41 pilgrims landed in Massachusettes and signed the Mayflower Compact; the telescope was patented by Alvan Clark in 1851; WWl ended - "the eleventh hour, on the eleventh day, of the eleventh month" - on this Armistice Day in 1918 - now known as Veteran's Day; Sperry Rand and Burroughs merged to form Unisys (UIS) on this day in 1986.
- The 30-year bonds (/ZBZ4) are now trading at 140'25, about a full point lower than where they had been trading for the last couple weeks. The Treasury will auction $24 billion in 10-year notes tomorrow (11/12) and $16 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday (11/13). Bond markets are closed today to celebrate our Veterans. The emini S&P (/ESZ4*) are now trading over 11% higher than when they hit the most recent intraday lows on October 15th. We don't know if someone discovered an overnight cure for ebola, or if ISIS has been dismantled, and if Russia and Europe might become the 51st and 52nd states of the union, but the problems that took our markets lower have all but disappeared. Or have they? In fact, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 both reached record highs for a fourth consecutive day, yesterday, closing at 17,613.7 and 2,038.3 respectively. The VIX fell almost 4% to 12.63, as the pre-mid term election volatility has all but dried up. Oil (/CLX4*) has 
continued mostly lower, although it is still in the 76 - 77 range where it was last week at this time. Gold (/GCZ4*) is now trading in the 1153 range, another $15 lower than last week, as the metals continue to lose their luster as the dollar (/DXZ4) remains strong and at the 88 level. 
- Possible stock movers and shakers: GoPro (GPRO) is planning on offering an additional $800 million in shares; Darden (DRI), and Juniper (JNPR) were upgraded; while Capital One (COF) was downgraded. Caesar's (CZR) reported weaker, as did Halcon (HK), Cumulus Media (CMLS) and Enstar (ESGR). 
- Veteran's Day Holiday - no economic events are scheduled. 
- Notable earnings before today's opening: ACM, CST, DHI, INSY, OTIV, PETX, QIWI, SABR;
And after today's close: FOSL, HMIN, LMNS, NOAH, OPWR, PE, STKL, SUPN, TAHO, YY.
- Current prices:  
E-mini S&P Futures  2,037.50  (+0.17%)  
E-mini DOW Futures  17,580  (+0.15%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  4,179.00  (+0.21%)  
US Dollar Index  87.908  (+0.11%)  
Crude Oil  77.19  (-0.27%)  
10-yr T-Notes  126-000  (-0.05%)  
 
"Success is how high you bounce when you hit the bottom." -- George S. Patton 
"I couldn't wait for success, so I went ahead without it." -- Jonathan Winters 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
Look for us at the upcoming Trader's Expo in Las Vegas 11/19 - 11/21, and the daily Swim Lesson Chat room (10:30 CDT) - see ya there. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 11/11/2014 8:06:22 AM | 0 Comments
Hug a Veteran's day

 

Hug a Veteran's Day Tuesday, 11/11/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
- Today's Birthdays: George S. Patton (1885); Kurt Vonnegut (1922); Jonathan Winters (1925); Jesse Colin Young (1944); and Fuzy Zoeller (1951). This was the day, in 1620, that 41 pilgrims landed in Massachusettes and signed the Mayflower Compact; the telescope was patented by Alvan Clark in 1851; WWl ended - "the eleventh hour, on the eleventh day, of the eleventh month" - on this Armistice Day in 1918 - now known as Veteran's Day; Sperry Rand and Burroughs merged to form Unisys (UIS) on this day in 1986.
- The 30-year bonds (/ZBZ4) are now trading at 140'25, about a full point lower than where they had been trading for the last couple weeks. The Treasury will auction $24 billion in 10-year notes tomorrow (11/12) and $16 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday (11/13). Bond markets are closed today to celebrate our Veterans. The emini S&P (/ESZ4*) are now trading over 11% higher than when they hit the most recent intraday lows on October 15th. We don't know if someone discovered an overnight cure for ebola, or if ISIS has been dismantled, and if Russia and Europe might become the 51st and 52nd states of the union, but the problems that took our markets lower have all but disappeared. Or have they? In fact, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 both reached record highs for a fourth consecutive day, yesterday, closing at 17,613.7 and 2,038.3 respectively. The VIX fell almost 4% to 12.63, as the pre-mid term election volatility has all but dried up. Oil (/CLX4*) has 
continued mostly lower, although it is still in the 76 - 77 range where it was last week at this time. Gold (/GCZ4*) is now trading in the 1153 range, another $15 lower than last week, as the metals continue to lose their luster as the dollar (/DXZ4) remains strong and at the 88 level. 
- Possible stock movers and shakers: GoPro (GPRO) is planning on offering an additional $800 million in shares; Darden (DRI), and Juniper (JNPR) were upgraded; while Capital One (COF) was downgraded. Caesar's (CZR) reported weaker, as did Halcon (HK), Cumulus Media (CMLS) and Enstar (ESGR). 
- Veteran's Day Holiday - no economic events are scheduled. 
- Notable earnings before today's opening: ACM, CST, DHI, INSY, OTIV, PETX, QIWI, SABR;
And after today's close: FOSL, HMIN, LMNS, NOAH, OPWR, PE, STKL, SUPN, TAHO, YY.
- Current prices:  
E-mini S&P Futures  2,037.50  (+0.17%)  
E-mini DOW Futures  17,580  (+0.15%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  4,179.00  (+0.21%)  
US Dollar Index  87.908  (+0.11%)  
Crude Oil  77.19  (-0.27%)  
10-yr T-Notes  126-000  (-0.05%)  
 
"Success is how high you bounce when you hit the bottom." -- George S. Patton 
"I couldn't wait for success, so I went ahead without it." -- Jonathan Winters 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
Look for us at the upcoming Trader's Expo in Las Vegas 11/19 - 11/21, and the daily Swim Lesson Chat room (10:30 CDT) - see ya there. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 11/11/2014 8:06:13 AM | 0 Comments
SPUs 2050 or 2000 at week's end?

 

Monday, November 10, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA
 
No, it's not November monthly expiration week, although it sure has already been a long cycle. Next week is the monthly cycle's end, so you should be at least looking for stuff that is close-to or on your monthly November short strikes. ALWAYS KNOW YOUR SHORT STRIKES; not only during the last couple weeks of a montly cycle, in these up-and-down markets, you should ALWAYS KNOW YOUR SHORT STRIKES! The old adjustment period being limited to the last 4 to 10 days of a cycle has expanded some, and even three-weeks out, if ON YOUR SHORT STRIKE, it may not be a bad idea to adjust a small partial, as you never know if the underlying will ever get that close again! We have found that the weeklys have taken a lot of the interest away from the monthlies, and have been trading them as well as the typical old-fashioned monthlys. One again the importance of the short strike cannot be mentioned enough - if in monthlys or weeklys. Okay, now that you have checked your positions for any In-The-Moneys, how about a look back at 11/10s of the past...
 
It was 11/10/1775 that the US Congress established the Marine Corps, and after attending last Saturday's exciting ASU shallacking of Notre Dame in Tempe, Arizona, we have to note that on this day in 1945 the #1 ranked Army beat the #2 ranked Notre Dame in a 48 - 0 route. The then Los Angeles Rams (1945) played the 49ers on this day in LA in front of a record NFL crowd of 102,368, and Sesame Street premiered on PBS TV in 1969. This was also the day, in 1975, that the Edmond Fitzgerald and it's crew of 29 went down in a storm on Lake Superior. What will 11/10/2014 bring? The SPUs (/ESZ4*) got up to almost 2030 overnight and the bonds were at 142'08, while the metals and softs were lower. Can the S&P hit 2050 before heading back to 2000? This week? 
 
"The market's going down like the Edmund Fitzgerald." "Who's he?" -- BAM and MGV (OEX pit circa 1988) 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM 
 
Central time. We will be at the Trader's Expo in Vegas 11/19-11/21 and New York 2/15 - 2/17, also at the World Money Show in Orlando 2/5 - 2/7.
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 11/10/2014 8:51:42 AM | 0 Comments
From High Noon to Robocop?

 

Thursday, 11/06/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA
 
- Charles Dow - the co-founder of the Dow Jones Average and the 1st editor of the Wall Street Journal was born on this day in 1851, as was Glenn Frey - in 1948. This was also the day, in 1984, that Ronald Reagan won the Presidency by beating Walter Mondale in a huge landslide - winning 49 states! 
- Two weeks ago at this time the SPUs (/ESZ4*) were 1940, and we warned of them going back over 1950. Well, they got over 1990 a week ago, and popped back over 2,000 on Halloween Friday (10/31). The emini futures are trading slightly lower this morning and have been in a tight-range all night (2012 - 2018). Now, with the mid-term elections in the past and the Republicans in complete control of both houses - what's next for the markets? After the election dust had settled, Wednesday in fact saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reaching record highs, closing at 17,484.5 and 2,023.6 respectively, as the VIX dropped almost 5% - to 14.17. DuPont Co (+1.90%) and Visa Inc (+2.70%) led the Dow higher. Will 2,000 hold and can we hit new all-time highs before the end of the year? 2050 maybe? Or will we sell off back into the low 1900s to finish 2014? Maybe we will start 2015 AT 2015. Someone should do some research as to whether the S&P 500 has ever started or ended a year ON that year. 
- Oil has been suffering over the last week - 80 tried to hold several times, but failed, and crude is now hoving just over 78.00. The bonds are trading exactly where they were a week ago - 141'04. The metals continue to trend to the downside - with gold (/GCZ4*) under 1145 and silver (/SIZ4) which stated the month at 17, now under 15.
- The list of earnings announcements, dividends, and economic news events is as long today as ever, and tomorrow is the weekly expiration - so PLEASE PAY ATTENTION! 
- Today's possible movers: DRYS*, NWSA, SXL, ENS, TSLA and SUNE*. 
 - Another big day for economic events:
Chain Store Sales
Challenger Job-Cut Report
Initial Jobless Claims
Gallup US Payroll to Population
Productivity and Costs
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
- Notable earnings before the open: AAON, AAP, AAWW, AEE, AES, AINV, AKRX, AMCX, AMRC, AMSC, AOL, APA, AZN, BBG, BCE, BCRX, BDBD, BKCC, BR, CDW, CECE, CECO, CNK, CNQ, COTY, CPN, CRZO, CVC, CYNI, DNOW, DTV, ERJ, FSYS, FUN, FUR, GEO, GLP, GNRC, GOLD, HAIN, HII, HNR, HSC, HSIC, HSP, HZNP, IT, KATE, KERX, KLIC, LIN, LMIA, LPI, MITL, MPEL, MWIV, NAVB, NRF, NTWK, NXTM, ONE, OWW, PBH, PDCE, PERI, PHMD, PKD, PMC, PNK, POZN, PRFT, PRGO, PRIM, PTCT, RDNT, RGEN, SATS, SCMP, SFUN, SFY, SGM, SLH, SNI, SNMX, SRPT, TAP, TCPC, TDC, TEDU, THS, TK, TNDM, TPH, TU, VC, VIVO, WAC, WD, WEN, WIN, ZEUS;
and after today's close: ABCO, ACET, AEL, AGO, AIRM, AL, ALIM, AMRN, ANAC, ANET, APEI, ARC, AUQ, BBRG, BCEI, BEBE, BNFT, BPZ, BRKR, BRS, CFN, CLVS, CPST, CSC, CVT, DAR, DIOD, DIS, DVA, DXCM, EAC, EBS, ECOM, ECPG, ED, EGOV, ELON, ENOC, ENV, EVC, EZPW, FF, FI, FICO, FIVN, FNGN, FSLR, FTEK, FWM, FXCM, GST, GXP, HCI, HGR, HNSN, HPTX, HTGC, IGT, INFI, JJSF, KING, KOG, KTOS, LGF, LNT, LOCO, MATX, MDRX, MDVN, MITK, MM, MNST, MNTX, MRC, MSCC, MTD, NES, NFG, NKTR, NOG, NU, NVDA*, NVDQ, OLED, ONTY, PCTY, PFMT, PRO, PSEC, PSIX, QTWO, RBCN, RENT, RIG, ROVI, RPTP, RRMS, RSYS, RXN, SAPE, SF, SFM, SLXP, SPPI, SSTK, SWKS, TCRD, TKMR, TRMR, TRNX, TUMI, UBNT, UEPS, UNXL, VOLC, VRNS, VVC, WAGE, WIFI, XOMA, XOXO, YUME, ZGNX, ZNGA.
Current prices: 
E-mini S&P Futures  2,014.25  (-0.22%)  
E-mini DOW Futures  17,390  (-0.13%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  4,136.25  (-0.15%)  
US Dollar Index  87.258  (-0.21%)  
 
“There is no comparing the brutality and cynicism of today's pop culture with that of forty years ago: from High Noon to Robocop is a long descent.” - Charles Krauthammer
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink- like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD) The next Market Drive event will this Saturday in Houston. - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive. The next Trader's Expo is in Las Vegas - November 19 - 21. Hope to see you in Vegas.
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 11/6/2014 8:30:47 AM | 0 Comments