What's Frank Thinking? rss
US Women's soccer team / SPU rally?

 

Synthetic Thursday, the 1st of July, 2015, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
The US Women's soccer team is in the finals of the World Cup and we can't stop thinking about how analogous this whole women's soccer thing is to the world economy. Greece's team never qualifies for the world cup and only recently qualified for the Olympics because they were the hosts. Whereas the US gals have won two World Cups, four Olympic golds, and was ranked #1 in the world continuously from 2008 to 2014. Oddly enough the SPUs (/ES) were under 1,000 back in 2008 and are now near 2,100. So, THAT's it! The US women's soccer team is responsible for this incredible rally? Makes as much sense as the other day's sell-off being blamed on Greece! Does this mean that if the US women beat Japan or England on Sunday that the SPUs might reach new highs next week? We don't know, and it's too bad the game isn't being played on the Fourth of July, but we will surely be waving our flags for our gals this Sunday! 
Just over 2-weeks to go in the July monthly cycle, and this is a holiday shortened week. We always thought holidays that fell on weekends were to be celebrated on the following Monday, but maybe the powers-that-be who decide such things are options traders. Hence, this week's four-day weekly cycle could be for no other reason than to somewhat freak the July1 weekly options traders. Of course we are kidding, and there has to be some holiday precedent... All we know for sure is that the shortened weekly cycle could cause some havoc if there is a short-short-short term swing and that tomorrow is weekly expiration. Anything with an ITM (In-The-Money) on your sheets - if THIS week, HAS TO BE DEALT WITH AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. Straddles that are right on the short strike and strangles that are "wrapped-around" the underlying price might need to be managed in whatever way you CONSISTENTLY adjust. You just have one less day to do so - and that last day is TOMORROW. 
Had you participated in any form of our SAP (Summer Avoidance Plan), then you wouldn't be worried about tomorrow's expiration. That reminds us, now that we have alerted all of our friends, the heir-to-the-mortgage wants to go play 18 at the Rhinelander Country Club. If he gives us nine strokes per nine holes we might even make a wager! Then, thanks again to our SAP, and weather permitting, tomorrow might be spent on the lake trying to catch that big fish. The only reason we may be found at our desk is not the AAPL* July 1 anythings, or any other option position, but thunder and lightning - and no we aren't talking about a volatility skew! There are, however, dozens of popular and actively traded underlyings going ex-dividend or with some earnings or other announcements in the next 48-hours. PLEASE make sure none of your underlyings will be affected by checking the Calendar up on the Market Watch tab, and if you don't understand the ramifications CALL THE TRADE DESK at 866 839 1100. 
See you next week. Have a great 4th of July weekend. Be careful! 
 
"What are you doing for the 4th?" "What do I do every other day - DRINK!" "That would have about a 90 delta." BAM and HUH (OEX pit circa 1985)
 
- Please join us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room - 10:30 -noon CT. And if you are looking for a fabulous full-day of stock/options/futures education, - sign up for one of the upcoming Saturday Market Drive events. The next one is in New York on September 26 - see ya there. Go to https://wwws.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive. Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD). Anyone without a TDAmeritrade (AMTD*) account can open a PaperMoney account - go to www.thinkorswim.com 
Our daily missives might be missing as we tour Chicago next week. 
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 7/1/2015 7:48:23 AM | 0 Comments
Greeks bearing gifts?

 

Tuesday, 6/30/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Births: Charles Vlll King of France (1470); Buddy Rich (1917); Mike Tyson (1966). Deaths: Elmer Layden (1973); Mrs. Albert King (1974). 
- Overnight futures have traded in about a 2050 - 2069 range, nothing to write home about, and despite Monday's big sell-off, just about where they were two weeks ago. They are currenly in the 2061 handle (6:30 CT), whereas last week at this time they were trading in the 2115 area. So the Greeks bearing gifts only brought us about 50 less SPU points! What could be bigger news is the Chinese markets collapse and the government's attempts to right the sinking "junk". Monday's announced plans to allow the massive Chinese state pension fund to invest up to 30% of it's net assets in securities (about 100 billion) could be the cure or the final dagger. Our bigger concern should be whether 2000 SPU holds or if we can get back up over 2100. Can we stay in this narrow range the rest of the summer? This weekend is July 4th already, so the summer of 2015 is already on the wane. Anyway, who cares what the reasons for any move will be? Greeks? Jobs? Auto Sales? Terrorism? Inflation? As Gilda Radner would say "It's always something." 
- US equities and anything even looking like one fell Monday (6/29) on continuing worries about the Greek debt crisis and whether they will make today's overdue payment to the IMF. (S&P 500 -2.09%, Dow -1.95%, NASDAQ -2.40%). DuPont (DD -2.99%) and Visa (V -2.95%) led the losers in the indices. Crude-oil (/CLQ5*) futures dropped 2.2% to $58.33 a barrel, but are trying to rally in the overnight session - now trading about 58.70.  Small-cap stocks also fell with the Russell 2000 (RUT -2.58%). The VIX spiked +34.45% to 18.85. US treasuries rose Monday, with the 30-year Treasury (/ZBU5*) yield falling to 3.10%, and the 10-year (/ZNU5)  and 5-year (ZFU5) yields dropped to 2.32% and 1.62% respectively. Gold (/GCQ5*) rallied as the US dollar (/DXU5) retreated, and corn (/ZCZ5) continued its move higher and is now back over 4.00, about where it began the year before dropping to lows of 3.45 about a week ago. 
- Today's possible movers: AAPL*, FB*, JUNO, CELG, XOM*, TW, SINA*, YOKU*, MSFT*, SUNE*. 
- Today's economic events:
7:55 - Redbook Chain Store Sales
8:00 - S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
8:45 - Chicago PMI
9:00 - Consumer Confidence
9:00 - State Street Investor Confidence Index
- Notable earnings before the opening: CAG, OMN, SCHN; and after today's close: AVAV, CAMP.
 
"Fear is your best friend or your worst enemy. It's like fire. If you can control it, it can cook for you; it can heat your house. If you can't control it, it will burn everything around you and destroy you. If you can control your fear, it makes you more alert..." - Mike Tyson 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
- Remember to sign into the daily live Swim Lesson - found up on the Support/Chat tab, running between 10:30 - noon CT. The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - with the next show in NYC on 9/26. To sign up for one of the upcoming Market Drives go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, or for the July San Francisco Money Shows go to www.moneyshow.com 
If you are not a TD Ameritrade / thinkorswim (AMTD*) customer you can open a PaperMoney account at www.thinkorswim.com 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 6/30/2015 7:47:13 AM | 0 Comments
Greeks bearing gifts?

 

Tuesday, 6/30/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Births: Charles Vlll King of France (1470); Buddy Rich (1917); Mike Tyson (1966). Deaths: Elmer Layden (1973); Mrs. Albert King (1974). 
- Overnight futures have traded in about a 2050 - 2069 range, nothing to write home about, and despite Monday's big sell-off, just about where they were two weeks ago. They are currenly in the 2061 handle (6:30 CT), whereas last week at this time they were trading in the 2115 area. So the Greeks bearing gifts only brought us about 50 less SPU points! What could be bigger news is the Chinese markets collapse and the government's attempts to right the sinking "junk". Monday's announced plans to allow the massive Chinese state pension fund to invest up to 30% of it's net assets in securities (about 100 billion) could be the cure or the final dagger. Our bigger concern should be whether 2000 SPU holds or if we can get back up over 2100. Can we stay in this narrow range the rest of the summer? This weekend is July 4th already, so the summer of 2015 is already on the wane. Anyway, who cares what the reasons for any move will be? Greeks? Jobs? Auto Sales? Terrorism? Inflation? As Gilda Radner would say "It's always something." 
- US equities and anything even looking like one fell Monday (6/29) on continuing worries about the Greek debt crisis and whether they will make today's overdue payment to the IMF. (S&P 500 -2.09%, Dow -1.95%, NASDAQ -2.40%). DuPont (DD -2.99%) and Visa (V -2.95%) led the losers in the indices. Crude-oil (/CLQ5*) futures dropped 2.2% to $58.33 a barrel, but are trying to rally in the overnight session - now trading about 58.70.  Small-cap stocks also fell with the Russell 2000 (RUT -2.58%). The VIX spiked +34.45% to 18.85. US treasuries rose Monday, with the 30-year Treasury (/ZBU5*) yield falling to 3.10%, and the 10-year (/ZNU5)  and 5-year (ZFU5) yields dropped to 2.32% and 1.62% respectively. Gold (/GCQ5*) rallied as the US dollar (/DXU5) retreated, and corn (/ZCZ5) continued its move higher and is now back over 4.00, about where it began the year before dropping to lows of 3.45 about a week ago. 
- Today's possible movers: AAPL*, FB*, JUNO, CELG, XOM*, TW, SINA*, YOKU*, MSFT*, SUNE*. 
- Today's economic events:
7:55 - Redbook Chain Store Sales
8:00 - S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
8:45 - Chicago PMI
9:00 - Consumer Confidence
9:00 - State Street Investor Confidence Index
- Notable earnings before the opening: CAG, OMN, SCHN; and after today's close: AVAV, CAMP.
 
"Fear is your best friend or your worst enemy. It's like fire. If you can control it, it can cook for you; it can heat your house. If you can't control it, it will burn everything around you and destroy you. If you can control your fear, it makes you more alert..." - Mike Tyson 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
- Remember to sign into the daily live Swim Lesson - found up on the Support/Chat tab, running between 10:30 - noon CT. The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - with the next show in NYC on 9/26. To sign up for one of the upcoming Market Drives go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, or for the July San Francisco Money Shows go to www.moneyshow.com 
If you are not a TD Ameritrade / thinkorswim (AMTD*) customer you can open a PaperMoney account at www.thinkorswim.com 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 6/30/2015 7:47:12 AM | 0 Comments
Greeks bearing gifts?

 

Tuesday, 6/30/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Births: Charles Vlll King of France (1470); Buddy Rich (1917); Mike Tyson (1966). Deaths: Elmer Layden (1973); Mrs. Albert King (1974). 
- Overnight futures have traded in about a 2050 - 2069 range, nothing to write home about, and despite Monday's big sell-off, just about where they were two weeks ago. They are currenly in the 2061 handle (6:30 CT), whereas last week at this time they were trading in the 2115 area. So the Greeks bearing gifts only brought us about 50 less SPU points! What could be bigger news is the Chinese markets collapse and the government's attempts to right the sinking "junk". Monday's announced plans to allow the massive Chinese state pension fund to invest up to 30% of it's net assets in securities (about 100 billion) could be the cure or the final dagger. Our bigger concern should be whether 2000 SPU holds or if we can get back up over 2100. Can we stay in this narrow range the rest of the summer? This weekend is July 4th already, so the summer of 2015 is already on the wane. Anyway, who cares what the reasons for any move will be? Greeks? Jobs? Auto Sales? Terrorism? Inflation? As Gilda Radner would say "It's always something." 
- US equities and anything even looking like one fell Monday (6/29) on continuing worries about the Greek debt crisis and whether they will make today's overdue payment to the IMF. (S&P 500 -2.09%, Dow -1.95%, NASDAQ -2.40%). DuPont (DD -2.99%) and Visa (V -2.95%) led the losers in the indices. Crude-oil (/CLQ5*) futures dropped 2.2% to $58.33 a barrel, but are trying to rally in the overnight session - now trading about 58.70.  Small-cap stocks also fell with the Russell 2000 (RUT -2.58%). The VIX spiked +34.45% to 18.85. US treasuries rose Monday, with the 30-year Treasury (/ZBU5*) yield falling to 3.10%, and the 10-year (/ZNU5)  and 5-year (ZFU5) yields dropped to 2.32% and 1.62% respectively. Gold (/GCQ5*) rallied as the US dollar (/DXU5) retreated, and corn (/ZCZ5) continued its move higher and is now back over 4.00, about where it began the year before dropping to lows of 3.45 about a week ago. 
- Today's possible movers: AAPL*, FB*, JUNO, CELG, XOM*, TW, SINA*, YOKU*, MSFT*, SUNE*. 
- Today's economic events:
7:55 - Redbook Chain Store Sales
8:00 - S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
8:45 - Chicago PMI
9:00 - Consumer Confidence
9:00 - State Street Investor Confidence Index
- Notable earnings before the opening: CAG, OMN, SCHN; and after today's close: AVAV, CAMP.
 
"Fear is your best friend or your worst enemy. It's like fire. If you can control it, it can cook for you; it can heat your house. If you can't control it, it will burn everything around you and destroy you. If you can control your fear, it makes you more alert..." - Mike Tyson 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
- Remember to sign into the daily live Swim Lesson - found up on the Support/Chat tab, running between 10:30 - noon CT. The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - with the next show in NYC on 9/26. To sign up for one of the upcoming Market Drives go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, or for the July San Francisco Money Shows go to www.moneyshow.com 
If you are not a TD Ameritrade / thinkorswim (AMTD*) customer you can open a PaperMoney account at www.thinkorswim.com 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 6/30/2015 7:47:02 AM | 0 Comments
Greeks bearing gifts?

 

Tuesday, 6/30/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Births: Charles Vlll King of France (1470); Buddy Rich (1917); Mike Tyson (1966). Deaths: Elmer Layden (1973); Mrs. Albert King (1974). 
- Overnight futures have traded in about a 2050 - 2069 range, nothing to write home about, and despite Monday's big sell-off, just about where they were two weeks ago. They are currenly in the 2061 handle (6:30 CT), whereas last week at this time they were trading in the 2115 area. So the Greeks bearing gifts only brought us about 50 less SPU points! What could be bigger news is the Chinese markets collapse and the government's attempts to right the sinking "junk". Monday's announced plans to allow the massive Chinese state pension fund to invest up to 30% of it's net assets in securities (about 100 billion) could be the cure or the final dagger. Our bigger concern should be whether 2000 SPU holds or if we can get back up over 2100. Can we stay in this narrow range the rest of the summer? This weekend is July 4th already, so the summer of 2015 is already on the wane. Anyway, who cares what the reasons for any move will be? Greeks? Jobs? Auto Sales? Terrorism? Inflation? As Gilda Radner would say "It's always something." 
- US equities and anything even looking like one fell Monday (6/29) on continuing worries about the Greek debt crisis and whether they will make today's overdue payment to the IMF. (S&P 500 -2.09%, Dow -1.95%, NASDAQ -2.40%). DuPont (DD -2.99%) and Visa (V -2.95%) led the losers in the indices. Crude-oil (/CLQ5*) futures dropped 2.2% to $58.33 a barrel, but are trying to rally in the overnight session - now trading about 58.70.  Small-cap stocks also fell with the Russell 2000 (RUT -2.58%). The VIX spiked +34.45% to 18.85. US treasuries rose Monday, with the 30-year Treasury (/ZBU5*) yield falling to 3.10%, and the 10-year (/ZNU5)  and 5-year (ZFU5) yields dropped to 2.32% and 1.62% respectively. Gold (/GCQ5*) rallied as the US dollar (/DXU5) retreated, and corn (/ZCZ5) continued its move higher and is now back over 4.00, about where it began the year before dropping to lows of 3.45 about a week ago. 
- Today's possible movers: AAPL*, FB*, JUNO, CELG, XOM*, TW, SINA*, YOKU*, MSFT*, SUNE*. 
- Today's economic events:
7:55 - Redbook Chain Store Sales
8:00 - S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
8:45 - Chicago PMI
9:00 - Consumer Confidence
9:00 - State Street Investor Confidence Index
- Notable earnings before the opening: CAG, OMN, SCHN; and after today's close: AVAV, CAMP.
 
"Fear is your best friend or your worst enemy. It's like fire. If you can control it, it can cook for you; it can heat your house. If you can't control it, it will burn everything around you and destroy you. If you can control your fear, it makes you more alert..." - Mike Tyson 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
- Remember to sign into the daily live Swim Lesson - found up on the Support/Chat tab, running between 10:30 - noon CT. The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - with the next show in NYC on 9/26. To sign up for one of the upcoming Market Drives go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, or for the July San Francisco Money Shows go to www.moneyshow.com 
If you are not a TD Ameritrade / thinkorswim (AMTD*) customer you can open a PaperMoney account at www.thinkorswim.com 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 6/30/2015 7:46:44 AM | 0 Comments
Greece and Connecticut?

 

Monday, June 29, 2015, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
Whew! After a whirlwind tour of Chicago and suburbs with a couple of college kids, we need a vacation! The Hancock and Sears/Willis Towers were eye-opening, the Cubs won the game we went to, and the Wendella boat ride on the Chicago River was great. Food? Well, it was Chicago, so that was wonderful as well. And now, back in Rhinelander, with three-full weeks of the July monthly cycle remaining, and despite the Greek concerns taking the SPUs (/ESU5*) down to 2054 overnight (we scalped them four times while at a neighbors barbeque), and considering most of our short options have purposely been sold/rolled to avoid the sometime languid summer months like July, we had to take a look back to past June two-nines...Of course we have alerts set on several underlying equities, the SPUs, the bonds (which are flying), and our cell phone reception on the lake is great! And remember that there are over 20 states in the Union with bigger GDPs than Greece, with little Connecticut about neck-'n-neck! My gosh, would the world really care if Connecticut was in trouble? 
Births:
William James Mayo - 1861 (the surgeon - not the guy who invented mayonaise)
Slim Pickens - 1919 (the actor - not the wealthy Mexican, Carlos Slim Helu)
Harmon Killebrew - 1936 (the baseball player - not what you do to a beer on Friday nights)
Fred Grandy - 1948 (Gopher on the Love Boat)
Deaths:
Henry Clay - (1852)
Jayne Mansfield (1967)
Bob Crane (1978)
Events: 
1854 - The Gadsden Purchase (parts of AZ and NM) from Mexico for $10 million (not a bad deal!)
1916 - Boeing (BA) aircraft flies for 1st time
1940 - US passes Alien Registration Act - requiring aliens to register (can we kick-start it now?)
1964 - Civil Rights Act passed 
1990 - Dave Stewart (Oakland A's) no-hits Blue Jays & Fernando Venensuela (Dodgers) no-hits Cardinals - 1st time no-hitters in both leagues on same day. 
2015 - Who knows? Who cares? We will be out on the pontoon boat with the family. 
 
"Boat? FHW, you've got a boat? What is it a garbage skow?" RQ to FHW (OEX pit circa 1987)
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time.
The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, login and sign up. Hope to see you in New York in September. 
Anyone without a TDAmeritrade (AMTD*) account can open a PaperMoney account - go to www.thinkorswim.com
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 6/29/2015 7:11:44 AM | 0 Comments
Sears/Willis Tower - the view not the stock!

 

Monday, June 22, Chicago, Illinois, USA 
 
In our favorite city, with our favorite kid...what could be better? Yes, the heir-to-the-mortgage is in town with a school pal who is from Ukraine, and we are at the thinkorswim (AMTD*) offices on the Chicago river in The Windy City; on our way to tonight's Cub's game with the thinkorswim team. This might be a harried week of eating and drinking with a lot of tourist stuff thrown in for the benefit of us all. We spent most of our life in Chicago, but, for instance, last summer was the first time we ever took a Wendella tour-boat ride or viewed the city from what used to be called The Sears Tower Skydeck but is now the Willis Tower. Okay, how many of you are now thinking about the famous Gary Coleman line from Diff'rent Strokes - "What you talkin' 'bout Willis?" Sorry, no connection, just our whacky way of looking at things.  
 
What we ARE talking about, Arnold, is how you can grow up in a town and still miss so much of it. But even more remarkable are the changes that have occured since our high school days at St. George in Evanston. Just after we got out of high school, in fact, construction on the Sears Tower began, when Sears was the largest retailer in the world, with about 350,000 employees. Nowadays, Sears Holding Corp (SHLD) isn't even a shaddow of it's former self. Including KMart, SHLD is barely the 13th largest retailer in the United States. We were born on the West side of Chicago, and our parents owned a tavern a couple of blocks away from the original Sears headquarters near Harrison & Homan. Growing up in a busy Chicago saloon at the doorstep of the once-great world retailer Sears Roebuck & Company made for an interesting childhood, full of great stories and even better people. 
 
We wrote an article, before they were called blogs, about the problems at Sears in the early 2000s, well-before the KMart / Sears merger, and back when the options on the stock were liquid with tight bid/ask spreads. Not only have those opportunistic options trading days gone by-the-wayside, but so has the entire company. Tell us - when was the last time you were in a KMart or a Sears store? As opposed to a Macy's (M) or even a WalMart (WMT*)? While we stood in the Sears/Willis Tower last summer, we actually thought of the CEO of SHLD, good-old Eddie Lampert. Do you think he regrets moving from his first job at Goldman Sachs (GS) to the big boss at AutoZone (AZO), to sitting (sulking?) behind the big desk at Sears? His fall has almost been as dramatic as one would be from the 100 story Sears/Willis Skydeck! We might visit the Skydeck again this summer, but the stock, we will stay away from. 
 
"Where did you buy that shirt, HUH, the tools department at Sears?" RQ to HUH (OEX pit circa 1986)
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time.
The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, login and sign up. Hope to see you in September in NYC.
Anyone without a TDAmeritrade (AMTD*) account can open a PaperMoney account - go to www.thinkorswim.com
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 6/22/2015 8:10:31 AM | 0 Comments
Quad Witch/Father's Day/Summer Solstice - big weekend!

 

Thursday, 6/18/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
- Births: Henry Clay Folger (1857); Sammy Cahn (1913); Lou Brock (1939); Paul McCartney (1942). Deaths: Ethel Barrymore (1959). It was on this day in 1812 that the War of 1812 began, and in 1892 the first macadamia nut was planted in Hawaii. On 6/18/1976 the NBA and ABA merged, and in 1980, the "Blues Brothers" premiered. 
- Two-years ago (6/18/13) the SPUs (/ES) were trading near 1635; One year ago (6/18/14) they were trading in the 1940 range; they traded 2115 last week, and after all of the earlier in the week Greek garbage and Yellan yap, traded in an overnight range of 2082 - 2096. They are currently trading 2095 (6:05 AM CT), so, the "no biggie" market prevails. The NHL and NBA Champs have been established, so now there is nothing to do but watch baseball and wait for football, as the markets muddle and meander throughout the summer. This Sunday is Father's Day and it is also the longest day of the year, as June 21st is the summer solstice, bringing with it slightly shorter days. Gosh, does shorter days (about 2 minutes a day) speed up premium erosion? See how our mind works! It is actually just the sun's appearance that wanes, so there is no adjustment to the greeks - darn! 
- US equities finished on an upnote on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve indicated interest rates may rise more slowly than officials anticipated - can you say "kick the can"?. (S&P 500 +0.20%, Dow +0.17%, NASDAQ +0.18%). Proctor & Gamble  (PG +1.24%) and Intel (INTC +1.00%) led the indices higher. Small-cap stocks fell - Russell 2000 (RUT-0.09%). The VIX dropped 2.09% to 14.50.Head of the Fed Yellen said markets should focus on the pace of rate increases rather than the timing of the first hike, and as we have pointed out over the last few weeks, the world-wide rates have been zooming higher, but it seems our Fed will continue to keep their head in the sand.  Crude-oil futures (/CLQ5*) fell slightly - 0.1% to $59.92 a barrel, but have rallied overnight. The grains rallied big with the softer dollar (/DXU5), and gold (/GCQ5*) is currently up over $21 to 1198. Will our favorite yellow metal get back over 1200? US bonds and notes reacted furiously to the Fed news, bouncing around like a Super-Ball on speed. The 30-year Treasury (/ZBU5*) yield rose to 3.09%, but the short-term moves made them a scalpers delight. 
- Today's possible movers: GM*, FCAU, AMZN, MSFT*, SINA*, YOKU*, DAL*, PBR*. 
- Tomorrow is June monthly expiration and a Quad Witch - so please look for anything ITM (In-The-Money) or close-to-it and act accordingly. If you don't understand the stock/cash ramifications, CALL THE TRADE DESK at 866 839 1100. 
- Another big day of economic events: 
Consumer Price Index
Current Account
Initial Jobless Claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Philly Fed Business Outlook
Leading Indicators
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
- Notable earnings before today's open: KR, RAD, and after the close: FNSR, RHT, SWHC.
 
"You grow up the day you have your first real laugh -- at yourself." -- Ethel Barrymore
 
- If you are looking for a fabulous full-day of stock/options/futures education, please sign up for one of the upcoming Saturday events. The next shows are in Chicago (6/20), and New York (9/26) - hope to see you there.www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive. And also look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CT. Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169, or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD). Anyone without a TDAmeritrade (AMTD*) account can open a PaperMoney account - go to www.thinkorswim.com  
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 6/18/2015 7:59:33 AM | 0 Comments
Nike (McIlroy) vs. Under Armour (Spieth)

 

Wednesday, June 17th, 2015, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
We are on our way to Chicago tomorrow for the Market Drive on Saturday and to spend next week with the heir to the mortgage and his pal from Ukraine that are flying in from Portland, Oregon. The younster is a college golfer, who is in Washington state this week following around some pros in this year's US Open. But he has no real aspirations of taking the game anywhere past college, and from a financial aspect, that is not a good thing - at least as far as his father is concerned. We have had positions in Nike (NKE*) ever since the young heir started receiving a full array of gratis Team Nike Golf equipment, and of course we did some research into the incredible company. We were both impressed with founder Phil Knight; his incredible work ethic and common sense in the early stages, and his more current leading-edge sports sponsorships as the company grew to incredible heights. 
The current #1 golfer in the world is a fellow Irishman, Rory McILroy, and after the huge success Nike was afforded because of it's early sponsorship of Tiger Woods, the $200 million 10-year deal with young Rory was no big surprise. Under Armour (UA) recently signed a similar 10-year deal with budding PGA pro 21-year old Jordan Spieth; hoping the second youngest golfer to win the Masters will also take their stock higher. NKE was under $50 just three years ago, so all of Tiger Woods' off-course problems did nothing to deflate the company's prestige or its stock price - recently trading over $105. Under Armour has made an even more impressive stock move, going from the 20s to almost 90 in the same time frame. So, they will more-or-less be paying Spieth with "house" money. 
If you are a sports afficianado in general, and/or a golfer in particular, it might be a little late to arrive at the Nike and Under Armour stock party. NKE does pay a small dividend and the options might be a little more liquid with tighter bid/ask spreads than Under Armour. But both companies could be in the golf world's spotlight for a decade-or-so as McIlroy v Spieth could become this generations Jack vs Arnie. We do have a personal relationship with Nike, however; and thanks to time and a bull market have an excellent overall position in the Oregon-based sports behemoth. Do your own due diligence - try a few of both firm's products and do your research before you take a shot - so to speak. 
 
“A few years ago there was a poll in China to name the greatest man ever. The winner was Mao, but there was a tie for second between Zhou Enlai and Michael Jordan of the Chicago Red Oxen!” - Phil Knight
 
 - Please join us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room - 10:30 -noon CT. And if you are looking for a fabulous full-day of stock/options/futures education, - sign up for one of the upcoming Saturday Market Drive events. The next one is in Chicago this Saturday (6/20) - see ya there. Go to https://wwws.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive/Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD). Anyone without a TDAmeritrade (AMTD*) account can open a PaperMoney account - go to www.thinkorswim.com 
Our daily missives might be missing as we tour Chicago next week. 
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 6/17/2015 7:19:41 AM | 0 Comments
Congrats to the Chicago Blackhawks!

 

Tuesday, 6/16/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Congratulations to our 2015 Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks! Winning the Cup is one of sport's toughest challenges, but winning it three times in six years means there is a hockey dynasty in The Windy City of our birth! Way to go owner Rocky Wirtz and Hawk fans - clearly some of the most rabid sports fanatics on the planet!
- Births: Stan Laurel (1895); Nelson Doubleday (1899); August Busch III (1937); Roberto Duran (1951); Phil Michelson (1970). Deaths: George Reeves (1959); Wernher von Braun (1977). Ford Motors (F*) was incorporated on this day in 1903, and in 1933 the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was created. On 6/16/1951 Ben Hogan won golf's US Open for the second year in a row, and in 1968, Lee Trevino was the 1st golfer to play all four rounds of a US Open under par. Then in 1989 four PGA golfers (Weaver, Wiebe, Pate & Price) shot a hole-in-one on the same day on the same hole (6th) at the US Open at Oak Hill in NY. 
- Overnight futures have traded in about a 2062 - 2075 range, nothing to write home about, but very close to the range they traded in last Monday night. They are currenly in the 2072 handle (6:50 CT), wherein last week at this time they were trading in the 2074 area. We were out late watching the Hawks win the Stanley Cup, so even if any of our overnight alerts went off - they would have been missed and/or not paid any attention. 
- US stocks finished lower on Monday (6/15/15) as the Greek bailout talks somewhat faltered. (S&P 500 -0.46%, Dow -0.60%, NASDAQ -0.42%). C'mon admit it - is anyone else sick-and-tired of hearing about the tiny economy of Greece? If Greece was on the trading floor in our day it would have been called a "pea shooter." United Technologies Corp (UNH -2.54%) and 3M (MMM -1.37%) weighed down the major indices. Small-cap stocks also fell: Russell 2000 (RUT -0.32%). The VIX rose 11.61% to 15.38. Crude-oil futures (/CLN5*) fell 1% to $59.35 a barrel, and are trading right about that at the current time. US bonds and notes rose after NY manufacturing data missed expectations, and ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. The 30-year (/ZBU5*) yield dropped to 3.09%, and the 10-year (/ZNN5) and 5-year (/ZFN5) yields declined to 2.36% and 1.70% respectively. The dollar (/DXU5) continues to bounce around the 95 level. 
- Today's possible movers: RYL, TWTR, AET, UNH, NEM*, GPS, SINA*, GM*. Will Ford (F*) pin 15 on this Friday's expiration? How about GM* at 35? DAL* on 40? LULU* on 66? SBUX on 52? MO* at 47? YOKU* on 28? All of these "pins" would be just fine with us! 
- Today's economic events:
FOMC meeting begins
Housing Starts
Redbook Chain Store Sales
- Notable earnings before the opening: ANFI, ATV, CCG, FDS, JW, REDF*, SHIP; and after today's close: ADBE, BOBE, DTEA, EEI, ITI, KOOL, LZB. On Wednesday (6/17) - ATU, CLC, DX, GOMO, JBL, ORCL, PIR. 
 
"All hockey players are bilingual; they speak English and profanity." Gordie Howe
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
- Remember to sign into the daily live Swim Lesson - found up on the Support/Chat tab, running between 10:30 - noon CT. The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - with the next show in Chicago this Saturday (6/20). To sign up for one of the upcoming Market Drives go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, or for the July San Francisco Money Shows go to www.moneyshow.com 
If you are not a TD Ameritrade / thinkorswim (AMTD*) customer you can open a PaperMoney account at www.thinkorswim.com 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 6/16/2015 8:32:20 AM | 0 Comments