What's Frank Thinking? rss
QE in China?

 

Tuesday, 10/21/14, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
- Today is the 294th day of 2014 and the 30th day of the autumn. Today's Birthdays: Manfred Mann (1940); Elvin Bishop (1942); Carrie Fisher (1956); Jade Jagger (1971). It was on this day, in 1879, that Thomas Edison perfected the carbonized filament light bulb.
- China's growth has slowed, so they announced a "stimulus package" of their own. How do you say Quantitative Easing in Chinese? At the same time, Mel Watt, the chief housing regulator in the U.S., announced a new program which would make it easier for home buyers to get lower rate loans with much smaller down payments. Isn't THAT what started OUR problems? 
- The 30-year bonds (/ZBZ4) after touching almost 144 overnight, are now trading 142'23, still 5 full points above where they were just a few weeks ago. The emini S&P (/ESZ4*) are trading near the 1910 level, 40 points higher than last Tuesday's 1870 neighborhood. Oil (/CLX4*) has continued lower, now trading in the 83 handle, and the price at the pump has also started to fall. Gold (/GCZ4*) is about $35 higher than last week, upticking big this morning, and the "soft" commodities (/ZCZ4, /ZWZ4 & /ZSZ4) also have continued to rally. The big sell-off in all asset classes had upticked the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) spiking to highs (30-ish on 10/13) not seen in a couple of years, but the overall rally has it flattening back into the 18 handle, dropping over 15% on Monday alone. Small Caps led the way on Monday, with the RUT 2000 up almost 1.2%. Will the rally continue as the earnings announcements pick-up-pace? Can the SPUs get back over our birthyear (1951)? The VIX back to 12? Will the Chicago Bears ever win at Soldier Field? Royals or Giants? 
- Possible stock movers and shakers: Sunedison (SUNE*), and Bank of America (BAC) look to open higher today, as do Apple (AAPL*), Harley (HOG), Travelers (TRV) and Texas Instruments (TXN). Whereas Verizon (VZ*), Coca Cola (KO), and Blackberry (BBRY*) are pointing lower. 
 
Today's economic events: 
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Redbook Chain Store Sales
Existing Home Sales
 
Notable earnings before today's opening: ABG, AOS, APOL, ARMH, ATI, CP, CSL, EAT, GPK, HOG, ITW, KMB, KO, LMT, LPT, LXK, MAN, MCD, OMC, PNR, RAI, RF, SAH, SBNY, SNV, TRV, UTX, VZ*, WAT, XRS;
And after today's close: ABAX, ACC, ACE, BGS, BRCM, CBST, CLS, CNI, CREE*, DFS, DTLK, EFII, ETFC, ETH, EXAC, FBC, FTI, FULT, HA, IBKR, IEX, IRBT, ISRG, MANH, NBR, QDEL, RHI, SIX, SMCI, SONC, UIS, VASC, VMW, WCN, YHOO, ZIXI.
 
Current morning markets: 
E-mini S&P Futures  1,914.00  (+0.74%)  
E-mini DOW Futures  16,427  (+0.59%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  3,900.00  (+0.88%)  
US Dollar Index  85.186  (+0.27%)  
 
"I fooled around and fell in love..." -- Elvin Bishop 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
Look for us at the upcoming Market Drive in Los Angeles on November 1st and the Trader's Expo in Las Vegas 11/19 - 11/21, and the daily Swim Lesson Chat room (10:30 CDT) - see ya there. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/21/2014 9:18:09 AM | 0 Comments
A better "crap-shoot" if you get your prices!

 

Monday, October 20, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
Okay, after all of the hullaballoo and market blood-letting, who is still around to have some more fun in the US equity markets? Anyone recently collect some quaterly dividends? Anyone own equities still at lower net prices because of having sold options against the stock while collecting dividends? Yes, indeed your long portfolio might have taken a hit, but had you been long for the last few years AND selling options, your cost basis on equites is still probably lower than their current and recently depressed prices. "Current and recently"? Isn't that kind of redundant? Yes, but kind of redundant also doesn't make much sense. By "current" we mean the stock's acual price as of right now, and by "recently" we mean where the price is vs a week-or-two ago. 
 
Anyway, we have "recently" been stressing NOT to take on any new long positions, and to perhaps even cut back via partials or some other form of hedge. Had you done that with the SPUs (/ESZ4*) up near 2,000, you would be smiling with them now down near 1880. We also consistently stress one of the most relevant elements of this investment game and that is to TRADE WHAT YOU KNOW AND KNOW WHAT YOU TRADE - and perhaps even have some personal relationship. What do we mean by "personal relationship"? How about checking the stack of bills on your desk or all of the stuff in your kitchen and bathroom cabinets? Perhaps your garage or the refrigerator and liquor downstairs in your in-home tavern? Maybe even stores where you shop, gas stations you pull-into, banks where your money is kept and airlines that you prefer. THOSE are companies that you obviously know and love; if they pay a dividend, have enough liquidity and option open interest, and if you NEED to own some equities, then why not them? We realize that this is not the first time we have mentioned this, nor will it be the last. But it IS THAT IMPORTANT! 
 
All of this also depends, of course, on your specific and personal demographics, meaning that a 65-year old in Kansas should probably not trade like a 22 year old on either coast. But no matter your lot-in-life, you should always stick to what you know and do best. Another trading particular that becomes even more important in volatile markets when bid/ask spreads might widen, is getting your best price on entry, adjustment and closing orders. Demographics don't matter when your are talking pricing! Getting your best price doesn't matter who or where you are. We have found that the battle between the exchanges and the retail paper flow has never been as heated, therein the prices that retail customers are getting has never been better - but ONLY IF YOU WORK YOUR ORDERS! If, for instance, you want to sell a 10 lot of puts and their market is .40 - .50, why not enter a small partial at .47 or .48? If not filled in a few minutes and the underlying doesn't move much, then enter another small partial at .45 or .46. If filled at any of those prices, then add another small partial just over (or under if buying), that fill price. If you can get a few pennies better fill on a good percentage of your orders, it just might be more than your commissions over the long term. 
 
"This ain't an art or a science, it's a crap shoot. But the odds are better if you get YOUR price!" - MCG (OEX pit circa 1986) 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time. We will also be at the Market Drive in Los Angeles on 11/1 and at the Trader's Expo in Vegas 11/19-11/21.
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/20/2014 9:09:23 AM | 0 Comments
Keep Calm and Trade On!

 

Thursday, October 16, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA
 
- Today is the 289th day of 2014 and the 25th day of autumn. Last week we stated "It has now been 2,040 days since the March 2009 SPU lows of about 666, and that evil number has been tossed around of late as the more recent market has stumbled. But, since those dreadful lows, the S&P has soared 195%, and we hope you took advantage of the incredible Fed fed rally." Is this a new bottom? Remember that in 2008/2009 we were plagued with much broader financial concerns with brokers (Lehman and Bear Stearns) imploding and the Fed bailout bringing about the first of the government's QEs. We just drove over 2,000 miles across the heartland of this great nation and after making the drive for over 40-years, have never seen as many trucks on the road and on rail cars, or the motels and restaurants as busy. So, how bad can our overall economy really be?  
- Setting overnight SPU (/ESZ4*) alerts on our cell phone is commonplace, but having the high-side alert (1855) go off at 2:13 am, and the lowside alert (1828) ring at 4:40 am doesnt happen very often. Oil too set an alert when it went under 80.00, but the 30-year bonds stayed "calm" barely up a couple points when they reached an overnight high of 146'07 (now trading 145'08). The emini SPUs are now hanging around 1826 over 10 handles from their overnight lows of 1915, and oil (/CLX4) is 80.32. Gold (GCZ4*) has been the most sedate of all the overnight movers, with a relatively narrow 9 point range (1236 - 1245) now trading 1239. Yesterday's VIX rally (up almost 16%) to 26.25 brought some fear back to the market, but the bonds hitting 148 bringing the yield (if you want to call it that) down to 2.91%, while the 10s and 5s "yields" fell to 2.13% and 1.33%. 
- Oil and Nat Gas (/NGX4) EIA Inventory numbers both come out today, so look for some movement in those. Jobless claim and Housing numbers are also released, so this could be another "doozy-of-a-day". We used to say "Keep your hands inside the boat" on crazy days, but our new slogan might be "Keep Calm and Trade On". Just stay small and nimble.
- Today's possible movers: Netflix (NFLX) - their numbers were weak and their 60,000,000 shares are trading $120 lower, if you do the math - that is a major market hair-cut! J.D. Power says auto sales in the US will reach record highs, so there might be some movement in Ford (F*), General Motors (GM*) and the new Fiat Chrysler (FCAU); Goldman Sachs (GS), Baxter (BAX), Unitd Health (UNH) reported better; while Amercan Express (AXP), Las Vegas Sands (LVS*) and eBay (EBAY) all came in weaker than expected. 
 - Today is a HUGE day in economic events:
Fed's Plosser: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook 
Initial Jobless Claims
Industrial Production
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Philly Fed Business Outlook
NAHB Housing Market Index
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
EIA Petroleum Inventories
Fed's Kocherlakota Speech
Treasury International Capital
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
- Notable earnings before the open: ADS, BAX, BBT, BHI, BX, CY, DAL*, DHR, DOV, FCFS, FCS, FITB, FRC, GS, GWW, HLSS, HOMB, MAT, NTCT, ORB, PM, PPG, PVTB, SNA, SON, SVU, SYNT, 
 
TSM, TZOO, UNH, VAC, WBS, WGO;
and after today's close: AMD, ASBC, ATHN, CCK, COF, CPHD, CYT, GOOG, PBCT, QLGC, SLB, SNDK, SYK, WAL, WDFC, WTFC, XLNX.
 
Current prices: 
E-mini S&P Futures  1,824.75  (-1.19%)  
E-mini DOW Futures  15,851  (-0.97%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  3,703.00  (-1.31%)  
Crude Oil  80.31  (-1.80%)  
10-yr T-Notes  129-000  (+0.53%)  
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink- like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD)
The next Market Drive event will be in Los Angeles on November 1st and Houston on November 8th. - go to www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive. 
The next Trader's Expo is in Las Vegas - November 19 - 21. Hope to see you at one of the events.
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/16/2014 9:12:21 AM | 0 Comments
Ides of October

 

Wednesday, the Ides of October, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA (exactly six months before taxes are due)
 
A reprint from October 14, 2011:
After expiration there will only be a few weeks until Thanksgiving and then the Hanukkah/Christmas holidays will be upon us and the end of 2011. We don't know about you, but the year has flown by, and it could be a part of it being the year of our 60th birthday(now 63), but this past 12-expiration-cycle period seems to have only been a few months long. 
One of our four dogs, the black cocker spaniel, Madison, recently reached her 20th year(now in doggie heaven), and we wonder how fast her supposed seven-to-one-dog year cycles have been going. We remember back in our "tough-guy" high school years our wise mother saying "you limp like an old dog, at this rate you will be in a wheel-chair by the time you are thirty." At that time we had suffered a football-related ankle injury along with a broken wrist and were having trouble stumbling along on crutches. Well, mom, up in heaven, we doubled the age of your "wheel-chair" guesstimate, but in spite of our 21-year old metal left hip (now 24); which came from a raquetball injury; shattered, and rebuilt right ankle; and arthroscopically repaired right knee; we can't tell if our gait is better-or-worse than our old four-legged friend, Madison. 
Okay, enough dogs and medical history...At this time we usually remind everyone to put in their nickel closing GTC bids and closing bids on short spreads, along with rolling anything deep in-the-money, but we have already done that several times over the last week-or-so, while talking about the end of the year and comparing our physical maladies to those of our 140-year old dog, has caused our old brain to lose it's original train-of-thought. So, how about some "old" quotes. 
 
"If age imparted wisdom, there wouldn't be any old fools." -- Anonymous
"Rashness belongs to youth; prudence to old age."-- Victor Hugo 
"What makes old age hard to bear is not the failing of one's faculties, mental and physical, but the burden of one's memories." -- William Somerset Maugham
"The best tunes are played on the oldest fiddles." -- Ralph Waldo Emerson
"Young men want to be faithful, and are not; old men want to be faithless, and cannot."-- Oscar Wilde
 
Remember the Los Angeles Market Drive event on 11/1. To sign up go to the TD Ameritrade website and login. 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD) 
And also look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CT and we will be at the Trader's Expo in Vegas 11/19 - 11/21. 
 
FHW 
fhwoption@hotmail.com
(* = FHW position)
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/15/2014 8:48:06 AM | 0 Comments
Throwing rocks at the markets?

 

 
Tuesday, 10/14/14, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Today is the 287th day of 2014 and the 23rd day of the autumn. Back in the early 1970s there was a college basketball player at Brigham Young University from eastern Europe that said "back home if you don't play well, they throw rocks." Well, someone was clearly throwing rocks at the markets on Monday, and one of them smashed through a window with an hour to go, taking the S&P 500 down another 1% -in just the last hour! Will today bring the buyers back? SPUs are up 10 handles as of this writing. Today's Birthdays: Dwight David Eisenhower (1890 - 1961); John Wooden (1910); Ralph Lauren (1939).
- The 30-year bonds (/ZBZ4) after touching just over 143 overnight, are now trading 142'24, about 5 full points above where they were just a few weeks ago. Everytime we look at them we just shake our head, remembering that they started the year in the high 127 handle! The emini S&P (/ESZ4*) is trading near the 1876 level, a full 75 points lower than last week's 1950 neighborhood. Oil (/CLX4*) has also "tanked" (sorry about the bad pun), coming from two week's ago's 95, to last week's $90 - now just under $85. Gold (/GCZ4*) did dip under $1,200 but has rallied nicely and is currently trading in the 1235 level. Corn (/ZCZ4*) and the other "soft" commodities (/ZWZ4 & /ZSZ4) also have continued to rally, corn having gone from 318 a couple weeks ago to it's current 347. 
- Possible stock movers and shakers: Sunedison (SUNE*), and Blackberry (BBRY*) look to open higher. JPMorgan (JPM) reported better; Netflix (NFL), Borg-Warner (BWA), EOG Resources (EOG), and Delphi Auto (DLPH) were all upgraded. Facebook (FB*), Apple (AAPL*) and Microsoft (MSFT*) also all look to open higher. Costco (COST) will partner with China's Alibaba (BABA) and sell food and healthcare products on their TMall Global platform at "competitive prices." 
 
Today's economic events: 
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Redbook Chain Store Sales
 
Notable earnings before today's opening: C, DFRG, DPZ, JBHT, JNJ, WFC, WWW;
And after today's close: CSX, INTC, LLTC, OZRK, SURG.
 
Current morning markets: 
E-mini S&P Futures  1,867.75  (+0.12%)  
E-mini DOW Futures  16,243  (+0.07%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  3,802.25  (+0.10%)  
US Dollar Index  85.710  (+0.21%) 
 
"What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight; it's the size of the fight in the dog." - President Dwight D. Eisenhower 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
Look for us at the upcoming Market Drive in Los Angeles on November 1st and the Trader's Expo in Las Vegas 11/19 - 11/21, and the daily Swim Lesson Chat room (10:30 CDT) - see ya there. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/14/2014 9:06:30 AM | 0 Comments
Prescott - back in the saddle.

 

Monday, October 13, 2014, Prescott, Arizona, USA 
 
Another 2,000 mile long weekend drive under our belts, and after watching the market sell-off on Friday from places like Plover, Wisconsin, Alton, Illinois, and Springfield, Missouri, as we sped South and West across three states, we are not surprised to see a whole list of ITMs (In-The-Money) puts on our sheets. So, with our Prescott desk literally stacked three-feet high with mail, and the trading accounts completely whacked out, we can't really sit around and chat. It is October monthly expiration to-boot, and with the SPUs (/ESZ4*) now clinging to the 1900 point, gold (/GCZ4*) over 1225, oil (/CLX4*) under 85.00, and dozens of our equity options positions needing major adjustents, we are going to cut it short. Hopefully the stack of bills will be handled and cauterizing (read: rolling) our short options will still be possible and some market buyers will crawl back out from under their desks. 
 
"Never for the sake of peace and quiet deny your convictions." -- Dag Hammarskjold
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 
 
10:30 AM Central time. We will also be at the Market Drive in Los Angeles on 11/1 and at the Trader's Expo in Vegas 11/19-11/21.
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/13/2014 9:18:57 AM | 0 Comments
Fed fed rally?

 

Thursday, October 9, 2014, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
- Today is the 282th day of 2014 and the 18th day of autumn. It has now been 2,040 days since the March 2009 SPU lows of about 666, and that evil number has been tossed around of late as the more recent market has stumbled. But, since those dreadful lows, the S&P has soared 195%, and we hope you took advantage of the incredible Fed fed rally. Birthdays: John Lennon (1940 - 1980), Jackson Browne (1948), Mike Singletary(1958), Annika Sorenstam (1970), Scotty McCreery (1993). 
- The SPUs (/ESZ4*), as of this writing, are trading slightly higher (1964), but after touching 1918 yesterday, it seemed like the world was about to fall apart. The afternoon's reassuring words from the Fed (all 8,127 of them), forced the buyers back into the game, and at one point, had you been trying to buy anything even on the offer price, it was very difficult without "paying up", which only took everything even higher. The bonds (/ZBZ4) were in the 137 handle last week, but the big buyers of the US debt are still taking the 30s higher - now amazigly well-over 141! There is a $13 billion 30-year auction at noon CDT today, so look for some bouncing in the treasuries. The gold (/ZGZ4*) buyers are also back, as gold has moved almost $50 higher since Monday (10/6)! Corn (/ZCZ4*) was as low as 317 last week, but the grains have also rallied, with corn now trading in the 342 range. Last week we said "wake us when (if?) it gets back over 350", and we are glad it is getting close! It the buy all asset classes sentiment persists, perhaps corn can get to our hoped for level. If the CBOE volatility indicating VIX is any real indicator, it fell over 12% yesterday, back into the 15 handle, perhaps the overall market rally has returned, although the SPUs just downticked into the 1960 handle, down from their overnight high of 1968.50. So your guess is as good as ours, and yes, as to overall market direction - it is still just a guess. We can't remember a day when stodgy old timers Merck (MRK) and Microsoft (MSFT*) led the Dow Jones higher, but MRK was up 2.94% and MSFT 2.75% on Wednesday, when the overall index was only up 1.64%. 
- Today's possible movers: Alcoa (AA*) beat estimates and is up over 3% in pre-market trading. Apple (AAPL*), Emerge Energy (EMES*), Auxilium (AUXL), Gap (GPS), Petrobras (PBR*), Pepsi (PEP).
 - Today's economic events:
Chain Store Sales
Initial Jobless Claims
Wholesale Trade
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Results of $13B, 30-Year Note Auction
Mario Draghi Speech
Fed's Williams: Economic Outlook
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
- Notable earnings before the open: LNN, PEP;
and after today's close: ANGO, CUDA, HELE, VOXX.
 
"Nothing really affected me until I heard Elvis. If there hadn't been an Elvis, there wouldn't have been the Beatles." -- John Lennon 
 
Have a great weekend! We will begin our 2,000 mile drive early tomorrow morning, so say a litle prayer that we arrive safely in Prescott on Sunday afternoon. 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink- like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ  -- Look for us on Linkedin (LNKD)
After this Saturday's San Francisco event, the next Market Drive event will be in Los Angeles on November 1st and Houston on November 8th. - go www.tdameritrade.com/registerformarketdrive. The next Trader's Expo is in Las Vegas - November 19 - 21. Hope to see you at one of the events.
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/9/2014 7:47:10 AM | 0 Comments
Roll 'em when you can NOT when you have to!

 

Wednesday, 10/08/14, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
Whew - what a sell-off! The bears in Wisconsin are doing their due diligence in preparation for this year's hibernation, whereas the bears in the market are gritting their teeth and looking forward to 1900 on what we call the SPU - the emini S&P (/ESZ4*). We have been saying for months; "not to add any new long positions", "cut back, at least in partials", or to be "extremely careful at these high levels", and we hope you have heeded our warnings. To hedge or not to hedge should not be a question, and when the SPUs got up to 2,000 and began to fade would have been the ultimate time to take some long profits off the table or cover your entire portfolio with some sort of hedging tactic - or both! 
There is now a week-and-a-half to go in this October monthly expiration cycle, and we don't know if the thoughts of 1987 are still ringing in some trader's heads. Will the bears in the market  force it further down to test 1900 or even lower? Or will the bulls recover and take us back up to 2,000 or higher? Gosh, if we only knew. What we do know is that there is a distinct possibility that many positions have been dramatically altered, with what were once well out-of-the-money (OTM) puts now deep in-the-money (ITM). On the other side, what were once relatively close-to-the-money calls are now toast with little or no premium left to help the bottom line. When this occurs your mostly net neutral position can begin to bite, as the short puts explode in your face, and the short calls are no help.
But, all is NOT lost. The now deep-in puts can be rolled and the calls covered or be allowed to expire - covering for a nickel or less is commission free at thinkorswim (AMTD*), and depending on the underlying and time 'til expiration, should seriously be considered. Let's look at an example: Tesla (TSLA) has obviously been much higher, and had you sold the October 270 puts (thinking the stock was going to continue to rise), they are now about $10 in the money with just over a week in this cycle. "Oh my, I have a terrible loser on my hands" you might be thinking. But wait, what about at least delaying the pain, and taking in more premium. Yes, the Oct 270 puts are 10 bucks in the money, but they can be "rolled" (bought back with a further out in time option being sold). Sticking month-to-month (out to November) and same strike (270) would bring in another 9.00 - 10.00 credit, and rolling weekly (Oct to Oct4) would bring in about 2 bucks. 
This is just one example of what to do when a good position goes bad. Although such high roll values are only found in the movers and shakers, on a percentage basis, even options on more sedate and lower priced less volatile stocks can be moved further-out in time to add premium and allow more time to be right. 
 
"Life is the art of drawing without an eraser." John W. Gardner
 
Remember this Saturday's Market Drive at the Marriott Marquis in San Francisco and the Los Angeles event on 11/1. To sign up go to the TD Ameritrade website and login. 
Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD) 
And also look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CDT and we will be at the Trader's Expo in Vegas 11/19 - 11/21. 
 
FHW 
fhwoption@hotmail.com
(* = FHW position)
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/8/2014 7:53:53 AM | 0 Comments
Fiat / Chrysler (FCA) available 10/13/14

 

Tuesday, 10/7/14, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Today is the 280th day of 2014 and the 16th day of the autumn. This was the day, in 1984, that Chicago Bear great Walter Payton broke Jim Brown's career rushing record of 12,312 yards at Chicago's Soldier Field - we were there! It is also the day, in 1996, that the Fox News Channel was launched on cable TV. Birthdays: June Allyson (1917 - 2006); Desmond Tutu (1931); John Mellencamp (1951); Vladimir Putin (1952); Simon Cowell (1959).
- The 30-year bonds (/ZBZ4) are now trading at almost 139 half, a full point and a half higher than last Tuesday's 138, and three handles higher than two-weeks ago. How much higher can these bonds go? Will they test 140 again? The emini S&P (/ESZ4*) is trading near the 1949 level. Oil (/CLX4*) is trading almost just over $90, almost $5 lower than last week at this time. Our 2,200 mile drive takes place this weekend, and we can't wait to see the price of unleaded as we drive from Wisconsin to Arizona. Last week we questioned whether Gold (/GCZ4*) $1,200 could hold on the downside, well it didn't and dipped into the 1180 handle just yesterday. It did rally to 1212 overnight and is now trading in the 1205 range. Corn (/ZCZ4*) and the other "soft" commodities (/ZWZ4 & /ZSZ4) all had nice rallies on Monday's lowered planting announcement for next year. Corn ended last week near 318, but traded as high as 332 overnight and is now in the 330 handle. The US Dollar (/DXZ4) is trading exactly where it was last week at this point (86.195), as the US continues to be the place to be. We don't know about you, but if we could figure a way to escape to Belize or even Ireland with all of our assets - it might be adios! 
- Possible stock movers and shakers: Apple (AAPL*) is under $100, will the Ben Franklin level now become resistance? Amazon (AMZN) looks lower on news of some possible penalties due to some fancy tax maneuvers in Luxembourg. Shares of Fiat/Chrysler will start trading on the NYSE next Monday under the stock symbol FCA. Dick's (DKS); Las Vegas Sands (LVS*); Dunkin' Brands (DNKN); Deere (DE); US Bancorp (USB); Sunedison (SUNE*).
- Consumer Credit numbers come out today at 2:00 CDT, expected to be up by about $20 billion for the month of August. July saw a $26 billion uptick which matched the April gain as the highest monthly gain of the year. If there is a large variance from the expected number there could be a dramatic last hour move. Be careful! 
- Today's economic events:
ICSC Retail Store Sales
Gallup US ECI
Redbook Chain Store Sales
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
Results of $27B, 3-Year Note Auction
Consumer Credit
 
Notable earnings after today's close: LNDC, MG, YUM.
 
Early Morning Markets Summary:
E-mini S&P Futures  1,948.50  (-0.38%)  
E-mini NASDAQ Futures  3,992.75  (-0.36%)  
US Dollar Index  86.014  (+0.10%)  
Crude Oil  90.25  (-0.10%)  
 
"Do your little bit of good where you are. It's those little bits of good put together that overwhelm the world." -- Desmond Tutu
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
Look for us at the upcoming Market Drive in Los Angeles on November 1st and the Money Show in Las Vegas 11/19 - 11/21 - see ya there. 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/7/2014 7:58:27 AM | 0 Comments
Chicago as a tourist?

 

Monday, October 6, 2014, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
We just spent an incredible few days in downtown Chicago - still our favorite city in the world. Not having stayed in the Loop for a very long time, we decided to act like tourists; from the fabulous Wendella Lake and River tour and bike ride north along the lake to the Broadway curve, and of course the fabulous dinners at The Capital Grille and Tuffano's Vernon Park Tap, we really "did-up" the Windy City. We couldn't believe how busy the stores were along Michigan Avenue's Magnificent Mile - with lines out the door at both the Apple (AAPL*) and Nike (NKE*) stores. Obviously the Cubs and White Sox seasons had, as usual, come to an early end; da Bears were playing versus the Panthers in Charlotte, North Carolina, and da Bulls and Blackhawks seasons are still in the offing, so nothing pro-sports related. But, we did do the Northwestern vs. Wisconsin tailgate in Evanston, and having gone to high school at St. George in Evanston, the old memories came flooding back.
 
Speaking of tourism... as of the last numbers in 2012, Chicago welcomed almost 46.5 million tourists, including 1.3 from outside the U.S. Those tourists added almost $13 billion to the local economy. Considering our downtown Marriott (MAR*) hotel room was "only" $220 per night, as opposed to others that could be as much as $600 for similar accomodations, we felt like we got off pretty cheap. Overnight valet parking was $60.00, but we didn't have a car, as we flew in from Rhinelander via Minneapois on Delta (DAL*), and we mostly moved around town on-foot, or in an Uber car. If you travel to big cities and have never used Uber, we highly recommend you download the app on your smart phone and try the relatively new service. Waiting for a cab or using pubic transportation in most major metro areas is a hassle and could not only get you lost in unfamiliar territory, but might even be dangerous. Uber gets you picked-up and dropped-off with no muss-or-fuss, and if you have downloaded some credit information, no messing with cash or fumbling for a credit card when you reach your destination. Enough about Uber, they aren't even publicly traded, but expanding in just a few years to over 200 metropolitan areas, don't be surprised if they do an IPO or are taken over by another transportation outfit. 
 
Anyway, even though it is just the 6th of October, a lot has already happened in this sometimes crazy monthly cycle. The SPUs (/ESZ4*) have gone from 2001 to 1918 (currently trading 1966); oil (/CLX4) and gold (/GCZ4*) have moved dramatically, and the list of equities hitting highs only to fail is a long one. There are now less than two-weeks remaining in this monthly expiry; with the celebration of the infamous Black Monday, October 19th, 1987, occuring the Sunday after next week's expiration. So, you better be paying attention! 
 
"He was almost there, when...Smash! Crash! Bash! He slid down and mashed into engine hash - the little engine that almost could.”-- Shel Silverstein 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 
 
10:30 AM Central time. We will also be at the Market Drive in Los Angeles on 11/1 and at the Trader's Expo in Vegas 11/19-11/21.
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 10/6/2014 7:05:24 AM | 0 Comments