What's Frank Thinking? rss
A week that will live in infamy?

 

Thursday, 8/27/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
- Whew, another whirl-wind trip! -this one to the Investools Conference at the Hilton Convention Center in Anaheim, California. We didn't find out until Saturday (8/22) that thinkorswim/TDAmeritrade (AMTD*) needed us there on Sunday - yes, the very next day! So, it was quite an endeavor getting there on 12 hours notice - but we are glad we did. It was great meeting so many interesting traders, and the one-on-one connections are always appreciated on both sides. 
- Two-years ago (8/27/13) the SPUs (/ES) were trading at 1655; One year ago (8/27/14) they were trading in the 2000 range; they started the summer (5/27/15) near 2100, traded near 2075 two weeks ago; and down to about 1967 last Friday (8/21/15) - THEN the fun began! The late last week sell-off intensified early this week, and the dramatic move will be talked about for years! Not often in history do the indices drop like they did this week (1000 Dow points in a day?), but the SPUs have rallied from the Monday morning lows of 1831 and are currently up near 1955. Three weeks ago we said: "Volatility has been known to pick up in the next couple of months, and the SPUs were pretty whacky just yesterday - trading from 2066.50 to 2098, and everywhere in between..." Little did we know what our trip to Anaheim would bring! We understand that fills were slow-in-coming, but quotation and order latency problems arise in any major market melee. The brokerage firms can't display prices or return fills until they come from the exchanges, and the routing in both directions was understandably backlogged. Not to mention the bid/ask spreads were widened to ridiculous levels as even the most brilliant market maker or best computer program had trouble figuring option values. So the finger pointing in the press came mostly (as usual) from the uninformed folks that like to pour gasoline on every fire! We hope everyone survived the ordeal, please remember that we are always trying our best. But when the usual amount of customers trying to fit through the eye of the needle is multiplied by 100 - mostly right on the open - THERE WILL BE PROBLEMS! 
- Today's possible movers: DG, NVDA*, AAPL*, SJM, KSU, CSX, BAC*, GES, YOKU*, PBR*, LVS*, XOM*, GM*, F*. 
- Today's economic events:
GDP Q2
Initial Jobless Claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Pending Home Sales
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
Results of $29B, 7-Year Note Auction
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
 
"If a man harbors any sort of fear, it percolates through all his thinking, damages his personality, makes him landlord to a ghost." - Lloyd C. Douglas
 
Have a great weekend! 
 
- If you are looking for a fabulous full-day of stock/options/futures education, please sign up for one of the upcoming Market Drive Saturday events. The next show is in New York (9/26) - hope to see you there.  www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive -  And look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CT. Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169, or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD). 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/27/2015 8:31:59 AM | 0 Comments
Monthly expiration Thursday.

 

Thursday, 8/20/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
- Births: Benjamin Harrison (1833); H.P.Lovecraft (1890); Don King (1931); Robert Plant (1948). Deaths: Leon Trotsky (1940); Fred Hoyle (2001). On 8/20/1896 the dial telephone was invented, and in 1965, the Rolling Stones released their 1st US #1 hit - "Satisfaction."  Will we get any "satisfaction" on 8/20/15? 
- Two-years ago (8/20/13) the SPUs (/ES) were trading at 1645; One year ago (8/20/14) they were trading in the 1975 range; they started the summer (5/20/15) near 2020, traded near 2100 two weeks ago; about 2075 last week (8/13), traded overnight between 2053 and 2077, and are currently trading 2060. Still relatively rangebound, despite all the noise. As we have been saying all summer, the "no biggie" market is still holding true, and our Summer Avoidance Plan (SAP) is doing just fine. As we mentioned last week, Volatility has been known to pick up in the next couple of months, and the SPUs were pretty whacky just yesterday - trading from 2066.50 to 2098, and everywhere in between - quite a few times! We don't know if the trade was thin and "anxious" because of the nation's schools going back in-session and taking some traders away from their desk; China's continues weakness; or if it was the early "leak" of the Fed minutes that "spooked" the markets, but we felt like we were on a teeter-totter on steroids for much of the afternoon. So continue to dance with who brung ya - TRADE WHAT YOU KNOW AND KNOW WHAT YOU TRADE, and keep your hands inside the boat! Please remember, however, that footballs will soon be filling the air, which will be followed by the 2016 presidential election's uncertainty. The overall market will assuredly not be as overblown as many of the candidates and it might become as deflated as one of Tom Brady's footballs. So be careful out there! 
-US equities closed lower on Wednesday (8/19/15) as sliding oil prices, and global growth concerns, along with the Fed minutes screw-up brought out some sellers. (S&P 500 -0.83%, Dow -0.93%, NASDAQ -0.80%). Small-cap stocks also retreated: Russell 2000 (RUT -0.98%). The VIX spiked up 10.59% to 15.25, as there were some big SPX put trades. Crude-oil futures (/CLV5*) dropped 4.3% to $40.80 a barrel but rallied back over 41.15 overnight, and are currently trading just under 41. Gold futures (/GCZ5*) rose 1% to $1,128.10 an ounce, and are now trading up another $11 to 1139. US Treasuries were higher on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting indicated economic conditions required for a rate hike were “approaching”. The 30-year (/ZBU5*) yield fell to 2.81%, while the 10-year (/ZNU5) and 5-year (/ZFU5) yields dropped to 2.12% and 1.50% respectively. Does "approaching" mean September or the end of the decade? 
- Today's possible movers: ADI, LB, XOM*, BAC*, DAL*, ANN, ROST, F*, GM*, PBR*, CVX - with the SPUs getting beaten down in the early hours and oil lower, all of these stocks look to also open lower. Metals and miners might be higher however - NEM*, AUY*, AU, ABX.
- Today's economic events:
John Williams speaks (2:45am EST) - NOT the composer
Jobless Claims (8:30am EST)
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45 EST)
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (10:00am EST)
Existing Home Sales (10:00am EST)
Leading Indicators m/m (10:00am EST)
EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am EST)
5-Year TIPS Auction (1:00pm EST)
Money Supply (4:30pm EST)
Fed Balance Sheet (4:30pm EST)
- Notable earnings before the open: ANN, LITB, OSIS, RAVN, SNOW, TTC; and after today's close: ARAY, BRCD, CRM, CRMT, GPS, HPQ, INTU, JBSS, MENT, MRVL*, MSON, NDSN, NWY, ROST, SCSC, SRNA, TFM, TUES, UEPS.
 
"Things are the way they are because they were the way they were." - Fred Hoyle
 
- If you are looking for a fabulous full-day of stock/options/futures education, please sign up for one of the upcoming Market Drive Saturday events. The next show is in New York (9/26) - hope to see you there.  
www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive -  And look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CT. Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169, or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD). 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/20/2015 8:07:22 AM | 0 Comments
Monthly expiration Thursday.

 

Thursday, 8/20/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
- Births: Benjamin Harrison (1833); H.P.Lovecraft (1890); Don King (1931); Robert Plant (1948). Deaths: Leon Trotsky (1940); Fred Hoyle (2001). On 8/20/1896 the dial telephone was invented, and in 1965, the Rolling Stones released their 1st US #1 hit - "Satisfaction."  Will we get any "satisfaction" on 8/20/15? 
- Two-years ago (8/20/13) the SPUs (/ES) were trading at 1645; One year ago (8/20/14) they were trading in the 1975 range; they started the summer (5/20/15) near 2020, traded near 2100 two weeks ago; about 2075 last week (8/13), traded overnight between 2053 and 2077, and are currently trading 2060. Still relatively rangebound, despite all the noise. As we have been saying all summer, the "no biggie" market is still holding true, and our Summer Avoidance Plan (SAP) is doing just fine. As we mentioned last week, Volatility has been known to pick up in the next couple of months, and the SPUs were pretty whacky just yesterday - trading from 2066.50 to 2098, and everywhere in between - quite a few times! We don't know if the trade was thin and "anxious" because of the nation's schools going back in-session and taking some traders away from their desk; China's continues weakness; or if it was the early "leak" of the Fed minutes that "spooked" the markets, but we felt like we were on a teeter-totter on steroids for much of the afternoon. So continue to dance with who brung ya - TRADE WHAT YOU KNOW AND KNOW WHAT YOU TRADE, and keep your hands inside the boat! Please remember, however, that footballs will soon be filling the air, which will be followed by the 2016 presidential election's uncertainty. The overall market will assuredly not be as overblown as many of the candidates and it might become as deflated as one of Tom Brady's footballs. So be careful out there! 
-US equities closed lower on Wednesday (8/19/15) as sliding oil prices, and global growth concerns, along with the Fed minutes screw-up brought out some sellers. (S&P 500 -0.83%, Dow -0.93%, NASDAQ -0.80%). Small-cap stocks also retreated: Russell 2000 (RUT -0.98%). The VIX spiked up 10.59% to 15.25, as there were some big SPX put trades. Crude-oil futures (/CLV5*) dropped 4.3% to $40.80 a barrel but rallied back over 41.15 overnight, and are currently trading just under 41. Gold futures (/GCZ5*) rose 1% to $1,128.10 an ounce, and are now trading up another $11 to 1139. US Treasuries were higher on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting indicated economic conditions required for a rate hike were “approaching”. The 30-year (/ZBU5*) yield fell to 2.81%, while the 10-year (/ZNU5) and 5-year (/ZFU5) yields dropped to 2.12% and 1.50% respectively. Does "approaching" mean September or the end of the decade? 
- Today's possible movers: ADI, LB, XOM*, BAC*, DAL*, ANN, ROST, F*, GM*, PBR*, CVX - with the SPUs getting beaten down in the early hours and oil lower, all of these stocks look to also open lower. Metals and miners might be higher however - NEM*, AUY*, AU, ABX.
- Today's economic events:
John Williams speaks (2:45am EST) - NOT the composer
Jobless Claims (8:30am EST)
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45 EST)
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (10:00am EST)
Existing Home Sales (10:00am EST)
Leading Indicators m/m (10:00am EST)
EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am EST)
5-Year TIPS Auction (1:00pm EST)
Money Supply (4:30pm EST)
Fed Balance Sheet (4:30pm EST)
- Notable earnings before the open: ANN, LITB, OSIS, RAVN, SNOW, TTC; and after today's close: ARAY, BRCD, CRM, CRMT, GPS, HPQ, INTU, JBSS, MENT, MRVL*, MSON, NDSN, NWY, ROST, SCSC, SRNA, TFM, TUES, UEPS.
 
"Things are the way they are because they were the way they were." - Fred Hoyle
 
- If you are looking for a fabulous full-day of stock/options/futures education, please sign up for one of the upcoming Market Drive Saturday events. The next show is in New York (9/26) - hope to see you there.  
www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive -  And look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CT. Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169, or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD). 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/20/2015 8:06:55 AM | 0 Comments
Millionaire cashier?

 

Wednesday, August 19th, 2015, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
A friend of our's who has always worked in the retail world, mostly at a cash register, will soon retire from Costco at the ripe-old-age of 52. Huh, you are now questioning the possibility of this actually happening? Well, our friend was from California, moved to Arizona and is now heading into retirement in the great Northwest, all after starting her retail career about 30 years ago at warehouse store known as Price Club. If you didn't know it, the original Price Club turned into what is now the second largest retailer in the United States -Costco Wholesale (COST). When we moved to Paradise Valley, Arizona, in 1990, our favorite store was the Price Club on Thomas Road and 44th Street, replacing our favorite northside of Chicago Price Club store. It was at the AZ store that we met our check-out friend who we remember telling after the Costco/Price Club 1993 merger to "own" all the PriceCostco stock she could. Obviously she heeded our words.  
 
A 1% dividend doesn't sound like much, but when you have been amassing stock for over 20 years and trading options against your growing long stock position, the value of the account makes you a multi-millionaire gal that will soon snap her last Costco ID photo. We haven't had a COST position, or anything retail in a long time (other than Nike NKE*, Walmart WMT* and LuLu Lemon LULU*), and are currently waiting for some pull backs in the likes of COST or higher end KORS, LUX or JWN. Not being a big shopper, positions in some of these mostly brick and mortar stores, are generally entered after a family spending spree. Nordstrom's Rack was just visited in Chicago and it was very busy, and when you consider some of the retail alternatives, from either a shopping or an investing perspective, Nordstrom's or their Rack stores look pretty good. 
 
If you really want to talk high end brick & mortar, you have to be talking Neiman Marcus, but that outfit founded by Dallas, Texas' Neiman family, is privately held. KORS has more options play, but we aren't into purses and there is no dividend. LUX, on the other hand, may not have much options play, but it does pay a dividend and makes our favorite Oakley sunglasses. Gosh, do we cut back on NKE after it's incredible five-year "run" from $35 to $115, and delve into luxury goods which might hold up better if the economy falters? COST has gone from about 50 to almost 160 in that same time frame, it pays a small dividend, but the open interest and bid/ask aren't nearly as "tasty" as their prime meats or thick-cut pork chops. Actually, seeing how the highest end store in Rhinelander is named "Revive", selling handed down high end goods; is obviously not publicly traded and is owned by a pal of ours (sorry Scott), there is no Northwoods high end retail investment possibility. So, we may have to wait for a pullback and/or our return to Arizona, where there are malls-upon-malls of fancy/expensive stores where we might eventually invest (shop?). 
 
Our Costco friend has once again proven that time is possibly the key to investing; yes, we can, and sometimes should, wait a long time for an investment. In fact we can wait a lot longer than certain family members can for that new watch or purse! 
 
"Beware the fury of a patient man." -- John Dryden
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time.
The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, login and sign up. Hope to see you in New York in September. 
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/19/2015 7:33:24 AM | 0 Comments
Tuesday Tidbits 8/18/15

 

Tuesday, 8/18/15, Kohler, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Births: Marshall Field (1834); Max Factor (1904); Roberto Clemente (1934); Robert Redford (1937). Deaths: Genghis Khan (1227). It was on this day, in 1894, that the US Congresscreated the Bureau of Immigration, and in 1958, "Lolita", by Vladamir Nabokov was published. The construction of the Berlin Wall was completed on 8/18/1961, and a year later Peter, Paul and Mary released "If I Had a Hammer." In 1982 the volume on the NYSE surpassed 100 million shares for the 1st time and Pete Rose set a record with his 13,941st at bat. 
- US equities rallied Monday (8/17/15) after being lower most of the morning (S&P 500 +0.52%, Dow +0.39%, NASDAQ +0.86%). UnitedHealth Group (UNH +2.31%) and Disney (DIS +1.76%) led the major indices. Tesla (TSLA) rose almost 5% as Morgan Stanley upped their price target. Small-caps also advanced: Russell 2000 (RUT +1.02%). The VIX climbed 1.48% to 13.02. Crude-oil futures (/CLU5) fell to a 6-year low, down 1.5% to $41.87 a barrel, the default contract has flipped on the thinkorswim (AMTD*) platform to the October cycle (V), which are currently trading down .01 to 42.40. Gold futures (/GCZ5) rose 0.5% to $1,118.60 an ounce and are trading close to the 1116 level this morning. US Treasuries rose on Monday. The 30-year Treasury (/ZBU5*) yield fell to 2.82%, and the 10-year (/ZNU5) and 5-year (/ZFU5) yields dropped to 2.17% and 1.57% respectively. The grains have been relatively flat with corn (/ZCZ5) clinging to the 375 level for the last week.
- Today's possible up or down movers: SNDK, WMT, ESPR, SINA*, SUNE*, YOKU*, AAPL*, FB*, SLV*, MSFT*, BAC*, PBR*, LVS*, EMES*. 
- Today's economic events:
Housing Starts
Redbook Chain Store Sales 
- Notable earnings before the opening: HMY, MBT, EROS, CSIQ, MY, SYPR, TJX; and after today's close: ADI, DL, DV, LZB, PLAB, SINA*, TEDU, WB.
 
"Things to remember: 
1) The worth of character; 
2) The improvement of talent; 
3) The influence of example; 
4) The joy of origination; 
5) The dignity of simplicity; 
6) The success of perseverance." -- Marshall Field
  
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD). Remember to sign into the daily live Swim Lesson - found up on the Support/Chat tab, running between 10:30 - noon CT. The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - with the next 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/18/2015 8:47:08 AM | 0 Comments
12 years later - same stuff!

 

Monday, August 17, 2015, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
Some things never change, and to prove that, here is a reprint of an article we wrote in 2003! 
 
"It may have come from a prior life, a lemonade stand in our youth, or our 20 years of trading floor experience on both the market maker and floor brokerage side, but for some reason we have always been predisposed to selling 'juice' (options premium). 
Granted, it is a much tougher task when the volatility levels remain stuck in a relatively low range, but there are still opportunities - especially when looking further out in time. In fact, we remember in the late 1970s while acting as an independent market maker on the CBOE, and with the volatility even lower than it is now, selling premium in several equities - even if only when the stock prices were affected by some dramatic news story - i.e. the JNJ Tylenol scare or the shooting of the Pope. 
As we noticed at the most recent Las Vegas Rat Trading Session, the short-term premiums may be low, but they hang-in-there for what seems like an eternity - oftentimes much to our chagrin! In looking at our current short positions, with several of the underlyings within cents of our middle stike area, the values of the middle straddles or stangles have remained relatively constant over the last week, and should only begin to lose premium at some point this week, and then only if the price of the underlying stays flat.
Similar to a simple butterfly spread, the values of these positions will usually remain elevated until very close to expiration, as the time decay of any of the near-the-money options doesn't add up until at least the last 10-days prior to the end of the cycle. It is actually easier, and possible in earlier time frames to close out these multi-sided trades when the volatility levels are higher. This is why, with volatility so low, that we usually don't even think of closing out these positions unless we are in (at the earliest) the last two-weeks of the expiration cycle. 
There are other factors in the close/adjust decision, and one of the most relevant elements is, of course, the existing price of the overall position. By this we mean that if the position has reached our pre-determined parameter for an adjustment or close - regardless of the time remaining, it will be acted on - at least in some partial form. If short both sides for instance, and the underlying has moved enough to make a partial close on one of the sides possible - that might be done as a closing leg, then on any reversal, the other side can be acted on in a similar fashion - to 'bring-in' the leg."
 
So, although twelve-years have passed since this article (now called a blog) was written, the same exact positions are still being entered, adjusted and closed in the same manner. The major differences that we see today are all of the new products and the remarkable changes in the overall options world. From dollar wide strikes and penny wide bid/ask spreads, to weeklies and ETFs and instant electronic fills of almost any imaginable position, the benefits to the retail online customer in today's marketplace are enormous. We wonder if the same will be said in another 12 years?
 
"Time is on your side - unless it ain't" -- GUR (OEX pit circa 1986) 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time.
The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, login and sign up. Hope to see you in NY in September. 
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/17/2015 7:28:05 AM | 0 Comments
PGA at Whistling Straits Thursday.

 

 
Thursday, August 13, 2015, Whistling Straits Golf Course, Kohler, Wisconsin, USA 
 
We are at the PGA Championship Tournament at the fabulous Whistling Straits on Lake Michigan in southern Wisconsin. A few nights in Milwaukee, and a couple of days watching the world's greatest golfers is a perfect remedy for the last couple weeks of crazy short term market swings. No, we didn't have any positions in GOOG, NFLX, TWTR, Corn, Wheat or most of the other whacky ones, but our one lots of short puts in Facebook (FB) were enough to keep us on the edge of our seats that Wednesday afternoon from a couple weeks ago. The VIX from 12 to 20 to 16 and back to 12 - all inside a month? What the heck happened to the summer doldrums? Yes, back in May, we may have moved most of our positions out further in time to avoid the frequent summer "lull" and the oftentimes sudden short term summer swings, but golly... 
 
Staying in a condo in the beautiful Blatz Building in Milwaukee has been great. The beer capital of Wisconsin (possibly the world) is a fabulous town. Whitefish Bay's lakefront homes are beautiful, and about 1/4 the price of similar properties on Chicago's Northshore. No, we aren't thinking of buying any more real estate in Wisconsin. But perhaps on some downticks, the Shorewood neighborhood was one of our favorites. Of course the PGA's longest drive tourney and practice rounds were a blast, and seeing all of the greatest players in the world in any field of endeavor is always a special treat. Whistling Straits on the lake is a world class golf course, and the PGA is running the jam-packed event perfectly. All of the tournament ads that claimed "This is Major" were spot-on. But the heir-to-the-mortgage goes back to college in Portland this afternoon, and it is time to get back to reality and our Rhinelander desk, not to mention AAPL* and the VIX. The early morning SPUs (/ESU5*) are trading higher and could even see 2100 before the week is out. Of course, 2050 is also a possibility! Gold, oil and the bonds are all on downticks and the grains are rallying with the higher dollar. 
 
See you next week. 
 
"Golf is the only game that you yell "fore", shoot six and write down five." - Anonymous 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time.
The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, login and sign up. Hope to see you in New York in September. 
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/13/2015 8:07:47 AM | 0 Comments
PGA at Whistling Straits Thursday.

 

 
Thursday, August 13, 2015, Whistling Straits Golf Course, Kohler, Wisconsin, USA 
 
We are at the PGA Championship Tournament at the fabulous Whistling Straits on Lake Michigan in southern Wisconsin. A few nights in Milwaukee, and a couple of days watching the world's greatest golfers is a perfect remedy for the last couple weeks of crazy short term market swings. No, we didn't have any positions in GOOG, NFLX, TWTR, Corn, Wheat or most of the other whacky ones, but our one lots of short puts in Facebook (FB) were enough to keep us on the edge of our seats that Wednesday afternoon from a couple weeks ago. The VIX from 12 to 20 to 16 and back to 12 - all inside a month? What the heck happened to the summer doldrums? Yes, back in May, we may have moved most of our positions out further in time to avoid the frequent summer "lull" and the oftentimes sudden short term summer swings, but golly... 
 
Staying in a condo in the beautiful Blatz Building in Milwaukee has been great. The beer capital of Wisconsin (possibly the world) is a fabulous town. Whitefish Bay's lakefront homes are beautiful, and about 1/4 the price of similar properties on Chicago's Northshore. No, we aren't thinking of buying any more real estate in Wisconsin. But perhaps on some downticks, the Shorewood neighborhood was one of our favorites. Of course the PGA's longest drive tourney and practice rounds were a blast, and seeing all of the greatest players in the world in any field of endeavor is always a special treat. Whistling Straits on the lake is a world class golf course, and the PGA is running the jam-packed event perfectly. All of the tournament ads that claimed "This is Major" were spot-on. But the heir-to-the-mortgage goes back to college in Portland this afternoon, and it is time to get back to reality and our Rhinelander desk, not to mention AAPL* and the VIX. The early morning SPUs (/ESU5*) are trading higher and could even see 2100 before the week is out. Of course, 2050 is also a possibility! Gold, oil and the bonds are all on downticks and the grains are rallying with the higher dollar. 
 
See you next week. 
 
"Golf is the only game that you yell "fore", shoot six and write down five." - Anonymous 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time.
The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, login and sign up. Hope to see you in New York in September. 
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/13/2015 8:05:22 AM | 0 Comments
Kohler's kitchen sink & PGA golf?

 

Monday, August 10, 2015, Kohler, Wisconsin, USA 
 
After a family weekend in Chicago, we are now with the college golfer/heir-to-the-mortgage at Whistling Straits in Kohler, Wisconsin for this year's PGA Championships. Our daily blogs may therefore not arrive this week in their normal frequency. But, if Kohler sounds familiar it's not because of the sleepy-little town or the tournament, but because of the company located here by the same name. It is more-than-likely a Kohler product can be found in your bathoom or somewhere else in your home/office. This tournament was played here as recently as 2010, and that was about the time we wrote a blog about the fabulous privately held firm. Literally from the kitchen sink, home generators and lawn mower engines, to a world class golf course and handmade chocolates - Kohler does it all. We looked back through our archives and couldn't find the Kohler story, but we do remember quoting our Rhinelander neighbor's son when he was about 2-years old as he told his parents "I know how to spell bath tub... K-O-H-L-E-R." 
 
Anyway, there are still two-weeks to go in the August monthly cycle, and this Thursday night is the kickoff to this year's official NFL preseason, not to mention writing from this gorgeous golf course is difficult in-itself. So, seeing how we have very few Aug2s on our sheets, how about some humorous golf related quotations...
"I've spent most of my life golfing - the rest I've just wasted." -- PJH (my former trading floor partner - I can testify to him playing a lot of golf!) 
"Golf is a game in which you yell "Fore!", shoot six, and write down five.”-- Paul Harvey
"If you are caught on a golf course during a storm and are afraid of lightning, hold up a 1-iron. Not even God can hit a 1-iron.”-- Lee Trevino (he has been struck by lightning on a golf course!) 
"It's good sportsmanship to not pick up lost golf balls while they are still rolling.”-- Mark Twain 
"Golf can best be defined as an endless series of tragedies obscured by the occasional miracle.”-- Anonymous 
"Golf is a day spent in a round of strenuous idleness.”-- William Wordsworth 
"The only time my prayers are never answered is on the golf course.”-- Billy Graham 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time.
The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, login and sign up. Hope to see you in NY in September. 
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/10/2015 7:49:18 AM | 0 Comments
Greece & Germany - definition of dichotomy!

 

Thursday, 8/6/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
- Births: Alfred Lord Tennyson (1809); Lucille Ball (1911); Andy Warhol (1927). Deaths: Pope Paul Vl (1978). 
- Two-years ago (8/6/13) the SPUs (/ES) were trading at 1700; One year ago (8/6/14) they were trading in the 1915 range; they started the summer (5/6/15) near 2090, traded near 2100 last week, traded overnight between 2091 and 2096, and are currently trading just under 2095. My gosh, talk about rangebound! As we have been saying all summer, the "no biggie" market is still holding true, and our Summer Avoidance Plan (SAP) is doing just fine. But volatility has been known to pick up in the next couple of months, and we all know what could happen in next year's election time frame. So, let's be extremely careful out there - TRADE WHAT YOU KNOW AND KNOW WHAT YOU TRADE! Just be happy you aren't long the Greek banks, where their shares have dropped 63% over the last three days, as German industrial output had to set some sort of record for the month of July - surging over 2%, which beat the consensus estimate of .02%. Did we really just mention Greece and Germany's economies in the same sentence? Perhaps THE definition of dichotomy! 
- US stocks were mostly flat to boring on Wednesday (8/5/15) ( S&P 500 +0.31%, Dow -0.06%, NASDAQ +0.67%). Crude-oil futures (/CLU5*) slipped 1.3% to $45.15 a barrel, and are currently trading even lower - at 44.80, while gold (/GCU5*) dropped 0.5% to $1,085.70 an ounce, and is trading right there again this morning. Disney (DIS -9.17%) and Chevron (CVX -1.38%) on bad earnings by DIS and lower oil for CVX weighed the major indices down. Small-cap stocks were higher: Russell 2000 (RUT +0.24%). The VIX fell 3.77% to 12.51. The dollar (/DXU5) continues to hover near 98, as the 30 year bond (/ZBU5*) fell, hiking the yield to 1.94%, as the tens (/ZNU5) and fives (/ZFU5) rose to 2.27% and 1.64% respectively. 
- Today's possible movers: MDLZ (we mentioned the Oreo maker on Tuesday), TSLA, EMES*, FB*, PPC*, SLV*. EIA Nat Gas numbers come out today at 9:30 CT, so be careful if trading /NGU5s.
- Today's economic events:
Chain Store Sales
Challenger Job-Cut Report
Initial Jobless Claims
Gallup US Payroll to Population
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet 
- Notable earnings before the open: AAON, ACTA, AGIO, AGN, AGO, AINV, AMCX, APA, AXAS, AYR, BBEP, BBW, BCE, BDBD, BDX, BECN, CC, CCC, CCOI, CECE, CNK, CNQ, CNSL, CRIS, CRZO, CTB, DDD, DUK, DX, EAT, EBS, EMES*, ENOC, ENR, EXK, EXTR, FSV, FSYS, GCAP, GLOG, GLP, GNRC, GOGO, GTXI, GWPH, HCLP*, HGG, HII, HILL, HL, HSNI, INFI, INSY, IRC, KOP, KORS, LAMR, LEAF, LPI, LQDT, MBLY, MEG, MFC, MITL, MMP, MMS, MPEL, 
MYL, NGS, NRF, NRP, NRZ, NVO, NXST, NXTM, NYT, OA, OGE, ONE, OTIV, OWW, PBH, PGNX, PLUG, PRIM, RDEN, RGEN, RICE, RSTI, RVLT, RWLK, SATS, SBH, SEAS, SFY, SGM, SNH, SPH, SRPT, SSTK, STN, SUNE*, TA, TAP, TDC, TECH, TESO, THS, TK, TLP, TNK, VER*, VIAB, WIN, WPP, YORW, ZEUS; and after today's close: ABTL, ACAD, AHT, AIRM, AL, ALEX, ALNY, AMBR, AMRN, AMRS, ANAC, ANAD, ANET, ASEI, ASYS, ATHX, BBG, BEAT, BIO, BITA, BOJA, BRKS, BRS, CECO, CENX, CERS, CLVS, CPST, CSOD, CUB, CUBE, CVT, CYTX, DIOD, DMD, DRYS*, EAC, ED, EFC, EGN, EGOV, EGY, ELON, EOG, ERII, ESPR, EVC, FLDM, FLTX, FPRX, FXCM, FXEN, GALE, GEOS, GNMK, GSBD, GXP, HNSN, HTGC, HUBS, IMI, IMPV, INWK, IRG, JMBA, KTOS, LGF, MAIN, MDVN, MHK, MNST, NDLS, NEWR, NFG, NPTN, NUAN, NUS, NVDA*, OLED, ONTY, ORIG, OSTK, OUT, PACD, PETX, PLNR, PODD, POST, PRO, RBA, RBCN, RIGP, RJET*, RMAX, RPTP, RRMS, SAAS, SEM, SEMG, SFM, SHO, SKUL, SPPI, SRC, SREV, SSRI, STMP, SWIR, TCRD, TCX, TEAR, TNGO, TPC, TRMR, TRUE, TRXC, TSRO, TWOU, UBNT, VRNS, VSAT, WAIR, WIFI, WING, XOMA, XOXO, ZNGA.
- Have a great weekend! We will be at the PGA tournament at Whistling Straits in Kohler, Wisconsin next week, so our daily blogs might be somewhat sporadic. 
 
"I would rather regret the things that I have done than the things that I have not." - Lucille Ball
"In youth the days are short and the years are long. In old age the years are short and day's long.” Pope Paul Vl 
 
- If you are looking for a fabulous full-day of stock/options/futures education, please sign up for one of the upcoming Market Drive Saturday events. The next show is in New York (9/26) - hope to see you there.  www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive -  And look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CT. Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169, or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD). 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 8/6/2015 7:54:10 AM | 0 Comments