What's Frank Thinking? rss
Who is eating all the Oreo cookies (MDLZ)...

 

Thursday, 7/30/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
- Births: Emily Bronte (1818); Henry Ford (1863); Robert McCormick (1880); Paul Anka (1941); David Sanborn (1945). It was on this day, in 1928, that George Eastman demonstrated the 1st color movie, and in 1975, Jimmy Hoffa disappeared in suburban Detroit.
- Two-years ago (7/30/13) the SPUs (/ES) were trading near 1680; One year ago (7/30/14) they were trading in the 1970 range; they traded near 2100 last Wednesday; traded overnight between 2095 and 2103, and are currently trading just under 2100. So, and as we have been saying all summer, the "no biggie" market is still holding true. We ended April near 2100 and could be ending July near the same number! Who is eating all the cookies? Oreo cookie maker Mondelez (MDLZ) is up 19% this year, while the S&P is up less than 3%!
- US equities continued Tuesday's rally yesterday as the Federal left short-term interest rates near zero and said the economy is expanding "moderately". (+0.73%, Dow +0.69%, NASDAQ +0.44%). Microsoft (MSFT*+2.10%) and Merck (MRK +1.77%) led the major indices, but the banks and brokers were higher (XLF) and the auto sector was very strong on good sales numbers. Small-cap stocks also gained: Russell 2000 (RUT +0.41%). The VIX fell 6.99% to 12.50. Wasn't there a lot of 20 VIX talk just three-weeks ago? Gold futures (/GCU5*) dropped 0.3% to $1,092.70, and are currently trading down another 7.00 to 1085.50. Crude-oil (/CLZ5*) futures rose 1.7% to $48.79 a barrel, taking the energy and industrial complexes higher, despite the news that gas inventories are near record highs. Fixed-incomes fell on Wednesday. The Treasury Department sold $35 billion of 5-year notes (/ZFU5) at a yield of 1.625%; the bid-to-cover ratio was 2.58. The Treasury also auctioned $15 billion of 2-year floating rate notes with a high discount margin of 0.077%; the bid-to-cover ratio was 3.93. The 30-year (/ZBU5*) yield rose to 2.99%, with the 10-year ( /ZNU5)and 5-year yields rising to 2.28% and 1.61% respectively. 
- Today's possible movers: MDLZ, BIDU, PG, SSYS, EMES*, FB*, PPC*, SLV*. EIA Nat Gas numbers come out today at 9:30 CT, so be careful if trading /NGU5s.
- Today's economic events:
Initial Jobless Claims
GDP Q2
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Results of $29B, 7-Year Note Auction
Farm Prices
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
- Notable earnings before the open: AAWW, AB, ACI*, ACIW, ACOR, ACRE, ADP, ALKS, ALLE, ALU, ALXN, AMRC, APD, AVP, AWI, AZN, BC, BCO, BG, BLL, BUD, BWA, BWEN, CAH, CBB, CBM, CBR, CCE, CCJ, CEVA, CI, CL, CME, COP, COT, CPN, CRL, CRR, CRS, CSH, CVE, CVI, CVRR, DBD, DCIX, DFT, DLPH, EDR, EME, ENTG, EPD, ERJ, ESI, EXLS, FCAU, FCN, FIG, FMS, GG, GHM, GLOP, GLPI, GNC, GOV, GTLS, GVA, HEES, HOT, HP, HST, I, IART, IDA, IDCC, IDXX, INGR, IRDM, IRM, IT, ITC, IVZ, KMT, LBY, LINE, LKQ, LLL, MD, MDLZ, MDP, MDXG, MMYT, MOBL, MPC, MPLX, MSCI, MTRN, MWW, NAVB, NICE, NMM, NNN, NOK, NTCT, ODFL, OSK, OXY, PBI, PCRX, PES, PF, PG, PNK, PNW, POT, PRFT, PWE, RDS.A, RFP, RTIX, RYAM, RYL, SC, SCG, SEE, SHOO, SHOP, SMP, SNE, SNMX, SSYS, SUI, SWK, TASR, TDY, TE, TEX, TFX, TKR, TMUS, TWC, TWI, UAN, UFS, UPL, VA, VG, VICL, 
VLO, VLY, WST, WWE, XEL, XRAY, XYL, YNDX, ZBH; and after today's close: AIV, AMCC, AMGN, ATEN, AUY*, AVD, AXTI, BAS, BCOR, BCOV, BRCM, BVN, CALD, CATM, CLW, CMLS, COHR, COLM, CPSI, CPT, CRAY, CTRL, CXP, DCT, DECK, DGI, DLR, DTLK, EA, EEP, EGO, EIX, ELLI, ES, ESS, EVHC, EXPE, FE, FEIC, FEYE, FLR, FLS, FR, FRGI, GB, GMED, HBI, HK, HME, HTCH, IM, IMMR, INT, ISBC, KAMN, KLAC, LEG, LNKD, LRE, LSCC, MOH, MTD, 
MTSN, MWA, MXWL, NGVC, NR, NSR, OLN, OMCL, OUTR, PCCC, PDFS, PKI, PODD, PTCT, PXLW, QLGC, QTM, RGC, RMD, RNG, ROVI, SAM, SB, SGEN, SKYW, SPF, SPN, SYA, SYNA, SZYM, TCO, TEP, TMST, TNAV, TNDM, TPX, TSYS, TXTR, UHS, VCRA, VVUS, WAGE, WBMD, WU, WWWW, YRCW, ZLTQ.
 
"When everything seems to be going against you, remember that the airplane takes off against the wind, not with it." -- Henry Ford
 
- If you are looking for a fabulous full-day of stock/options/futures education, please sign up for one of the upcoming Market Drive Saturday events. The next show is in New York (9/26) - hope to see you there.  www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive -  And look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CT. Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169, or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD). 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 7/30/2015 8:20:51 AM | 0 Comments
CAT in the hat?

 

Wednesday, July 29, 2015, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
Geeze, a five-week expiration cycle is always longer than we like, but in this northwoods end-of-summer time frame it really seems to drag on-and-on. You might think the weeklies and their "1" "2" "3" "4" and "5" numbers after the monthly designation would speed even a five-weeker up - we should be so lucky. And, no, our Summer Avoidance Plan (SAP) hasn't worked either, but that has more to do with the past couple weeks of earnings heightened volatility levels (read: added short term positions) as opposed to the passing of time and theta. And all of the earnings reports in some of the high flyers and the subsequent whacked-out after market moves hasn't made matters any better either. The best news we can think of is that the grass has almost stopped growing as it does every end-of-summer, so at least one of our weekly chores has turned into an every-other task. 
 
Now that we think of it, about 10 years ago, when we thought about buying our first Wisconsin lawn mower (self-propelled) of course, and much to our Caterpillar (CAT*) selling neighbor's chagrin (sorry Tim F.), we had to check out the stock from John Deere (DE). We remember it somewhere in the $30 range, and because we thought their $300 mower was overpriced at 10 times their stock price, we steered clear of Deere. In checking the 10-year chart of Deere, it is another in the long line of stocks we "missed", but our "Trade what you know, and know what you trade" slogan had to persist. Having an acre of grass forced us to go with a lawn tractor instead of the old push machine, and the one purchased, an Ariens, is built by Kubota, an Osaka, Japan based maker of tractors and other heavy equipment that has been around even longer than Caterpillar. CAT, in fact (not in the hat) isn't even in the lawn mowing business, so the grass didn't play a part of our lawn mower/stock/options decision. But when they moved big into forestry with their acquisition of Blount Forestry, and living in the Northwoods, it was a different story (trade what you know...). 
 
If you have never seen the clearing, grubbing, stripping and stacking/removal of a 40-acre parcel of forest, it is well-worth the time - which is actually, amazingly enough, just a couple of days. Another Rhinelander friend owns several 40 acres parcels in the area, and every ten-years or so has one cleared. It was soon after watching the logging show and about the same time that Caterpillar switched from their existing Timberking name with Blount (2006), that a CAT position was first entered. The stock was about $60, and the play was to make some profits via the stock dividend and options sales as much as it was to appease and investment educate our CAT neighbor. Thankfully we are still in CAT, and we are just as happy that our neighbor uses his CAT Skid Steer Loader to keep our winter-time driveway clear of snow. Ooops wait, we were talking end of summer five-week cycles and maybe how the growth of our lawn really wanes in the fall. How did snow get into the story? Yes, we are in the Northwoods and only approaching August, but believe-it-or-not, we just moved the rakes from the back of the garage, and the snow shovels are never that far behind.
 
"The caterpillar does all the work but the butterfly gets all the publicity." -- George Carlin 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time.
The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, login and sign up. Hope to see you in New York in September. 
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 7/29/2015 7:51:26 AM | 0 Comments
CAT in the hat?

 

Wednesday, July 29, 2015, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
Geeze, a five-week expiration cycle is always longer than we like, but in this northwoods end-of-summer time frame it really seems to drag on-and-on. You might think the weeklies and their "1" "2" "3" "4" and "5" numbers after the monthly designation would speed even a five-weeker up - we should be so lucky. And, no, our Summer Avoidance Plan (SAP) hasn't worked either, but that has more to do with the past couple weeks of earnings heightened volatility levels (read: added short term positions) as opposed to the passing of time and theta. And all of the earnings reports in some of the high flyers and the subsequent whacked-out after market moves hasn't made matters any better either. The best news we can think of is that the grass has almost stopped growing as it does every end-of-summer, so at least one of our weekly chores has turned into an every-other task. 
 
Now that we think of it, about 10 years ago, when we thought about buying our first Wisconsin lawn mower (self-propelled) of course, and much to our Caterpillar (CAT*) selling neighbor's chagrin (sorry Tim F.), we had to check out the stock from John Deere (DE). We remember it somewhere in the $30 range, and because we thought their $300 mower was overpriced at 10 times their stock price, we steered clear of Deere. In checking the 10-year chart of Deere, it is another in the long line of stocks we "missed", but our "Trade what you know, and know what you trade" slogan had to persist. Having an acre of grass forced us to go with a lawn tractor instead of the old push machine, and the one purchased, an Ariens, is built by Kubota, an Osaka, Japan based maker of tractors and other heavy equipment that has been around even longer than Caterpillar. CAT, in fact (not in the hat) isn't even in the lawn mowing business, so the grass didn't play a part of our lawn mower/stock/options decision. But when they moved big into forestry with their acquisition of Blount Forestry, and living in the Northwoods, it was a different story (trade what you know...). 
 
If you have never seen the clearing, grubbing, stripping and stacking/removal of a 40-acre parcel of forest, it is well-worth the time - which is actually, amazingly enough, just a couple of days. Another Rhinelander friend owns several 40 acres parcels in the area, and every ten-years or so has one cleared. It was soon after watching the logging show and about the same time that Caterpillar switched from their existing Timberking name with Blount (2006), that a CAT position was first entered. The stock was about $60, and the play was to make some profits via the stock dividend and options sales as much as it was to appease and investment educate our CAT neighbor. Thankfully we are still in CAT, and we are just as happy that our neighbor uses his CAT Skid Steer Loader to keep our winter-time driveway clear of snow. Ooops wait, we were talking end of summer five-week cycles and maybe how the growth of our lawn really wanes in the fall. How did snow get into the story? Yes, we are in the Northwoods and only approaching August, but believe-it-or-not, we just moved the rakes from the back of the garage, and the snow shovels are never that far behind.
 
"The caterpillar does all the work but the butterfly gets all the publicity." -- George Carlin 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time.
The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, login and sign up. Hope to see you in New York in September. 
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 7/29/2015 7:45:40 AM | 0 Comments
"Pull the trigger or put your gun away."

 

Tuesday, 7/28/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Births: Beatrix Potter (1866); Rudy Vallee (1901); Jacqueline Kennedy Onasis (1929); Vida Blue (1949). Deaths: Cyranno de Bergerac (1655); Johann Sebastian Bach (1750); Maximilien Robespierre (1794). It was on this day, in 1586, that Sir Thomas Harriot introduced the potato to Europe, and in 1900 the hamburger was created by Louis Lassing in Connectcut. Nowadays there are tens of millions of burger and fry combinations sold worldwide! In 1943 President FDR ended coffee rationing - whew! On 7/28/1978 the price of gold topped $200-an-ounce for the 1st time, and in 1984 the Los Angeles Olympic Games opened but were boycotted by 14 Eastern Bloc countries. The Federal Reserve will open a two-day meeting today to further discuss when the sure-to-come rate hikes will begin. No big news is expected, but the entire world is hanging on any hint as to when, how big and how many increases will be forthcoming. My dad had a saying that might fit this situation - "Alright already, crap or get off the pot." We might add - "Pull the trigger or put your gun away." 
- US equities ended on a downer Monday after a dramatic selloff in China. (S&P 500 -0.58%, Dow -0.73%, NASDAQ -0.96%). Small-cap stocks also dropped: Russell 2000 (RUT -0.93%). The VIX rose 13.54% to 15.60. Gold futures (/GCU5%) rallied 1% to $1,096.50 an ounce, as the dollar (/DXU5) sank under 97, gold is currently lower at 1093, with the dollar back up to 97.05. The 30-year bond (/ZBU5*) yield fell to 2.93%, and the 10-year (/ZNU5) and 5-year (/ZFU5) yields declined to 2.22% and 1.56% respectively. Crude-oil (/CLU5*) lost 75 cents to $47.39 a barrel, and is currently trading unched. The grains dropped precipitously on Monday, with corn (/ZCZ5) for December delivery (Z) moving from 453 on 7/14 to yesterday's 384. The weak demand for the "softs" was also blamed on China. 
- Today's possible movers: BIDU, DD, GM*, F*, NEM*, BAC*, AAPL*, RJET*, FB*, IOC*. Another huge day in earnings, make sure you understand the stock/cash ramifications if short any of this weeks options - on your Monitor page they are designated 100 (Weeklys) JUL5. Call the trade desk at 866 839 1100 or ask on Live Support found at the top of the platform under Support/Chat. 
- Today's economic events:
FOMC meeting begins
Redbook Chain Store Sales
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
PMI Services Index Flash
Consumer Confidence
Richmond Fed Mfg.
State Street Investor Confidence Index
Results of $26B, 2-Year Note Auction
- Notable earnings before the opening: AGCO, AHGP, AIXG, AKS, ALLY, AMG, ARG, ARLP, ARW, AUDC, AUO, AXE, BP, BTU, CIT, CMI, CNC, CNX, COMM, CPLA, CRY, CVLT, CYNO, DD, DHI, DHX, ECL, F*, FBC, FCH, FDP, FMER, FSS, GLW, GPN, GRUB, ICLR, IPGP, IPI, IR, JBLU, JEC, KEM, LH, LPT, LYB, MAS, MMC, MRK, MZOR, NCI, NLSN, NOV, NTLS, OAK, OFC, PCAR, PCH, PCP, PFE, POR, RAI, RDWR, SALT, SIR, SIRI, ST, SVU, TXT, UPS, 
UTHR, WAT, WDR, WYN; and after today's close: AFL, AIZ, AJG, AKAM, APC, ARI, ATML, ATR, ATRC, AXS, BBRG, BGFV, BLDP, BMR, BOOM, BWLD, BXMT, CALX, CAP, CEB, CHRW, CINF, CLMS, CTXS, CUZ, DHT, EEFT, EQR, 
ESRX, ETH, EW, EXAC, EXAM, GAS, GCA, GILD, GPRE, HA, HT, HURN, IACI, IPHI, KIM, LNDC, MTSI, NATI, NCR, NEU, NGD, NUVA, NVDQ, NVMI, OIS, PEI, PNRA, RGR, RNR, RPXC, RRC, RSYS, RUBI, SLCA, SM, SPWR, SSW, 
TSS, TWTR, ULTI, VDSI, VR, VRSK, VRTU, WNC, WRI, WSH, X, YELP.
 
"If we ain't careful we may all be speaking Chinese someday." "Marty, try conquering English first." GUR and BAM (OEX pit circa 1988)
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
- Remember to sign into the daily live Swim Lesson - found up on the Support/Chat tab, running between 10:30 - noon CT. The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - with the next 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 7/28/2015 8:47:35 AM | 0 Comments
San Fran fan or...

 

Monday, July 27, 2015, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
We have been home from the San Francisco Money Show for a week and are still thinking about the City by the Bay. The ups-and-downs in the SF bay area have been about as dramatic as the hills around the city, which makes it somewhat surprising that there are 20 Fortune 500 companies based there. Although the actual city of San Francisco is relatively small - about 850,000; the population, however, is about as diverse as any of the truly major metro cities where the majority of the population live and work in the actual city. SF also has a well educated base of citizens, which is part of the reason so many tech companies are based in the area. In fact there are 20 Fortune 500 firms based in-and-around San Francisco, with the entire state of California having 54 of the largest (by revenue) companies in the U.S. 
 
There are 33 Fortune 500 companies in Chicago and suburbs, and both New York and Texas have 52 of the largest (by revenue) firms in the Fortune 500. Considering San Francisco's size is nowhere near the larger cities in the US, the amount of large successful firms is substantial, especially when you consider the age of the firms based there. Yes, we realize that there wasn't even a tech industry when most of the east coast and midwest companies were founded, and technology has certainly been the industry growth machine in the SF Bay area. In fact there aren't many old-line "smoke-stack" industrial type firms found in San Francisco, and many of the ones located there are somehow serving the tech industry. However, the amount of major upscale buildings going up in and around downtown San Francisco was almost stunning! For instance, Salesforce.com (CRM) is seriously stretching the SF building boundaries with construction of their 61-story headquarters, and just a quick (read: cheap) UberX ride to the Wharf from the downtown Marriott (MAR) found at least 10 other high rise structures are in some phase of construction. By the way, Uber was founded in San Francisco. 
 
We have been going to trade shows for over 15 years, and we can tell you what city we are in blindfolded! Questions at the booth are very often localized, with the visiting residents of each particular town having their very own economic situation and corporate structure, making it easy for us to figure out our locale. But, traveling to the east and west coasts at least once/twice a year for almost 2 decades has completely tainted our taste for both. We might be able to figure out where we are without looking, and we know and like many folks on each side of this wondrous nation. However, and for too many reasons to list, the midwest fly-over states still feel like our home. Despite our Prescott, Arizona residence, we are considerately more at-home in all regards when in Illinois/Wisconsin, and as we get closer to retirement, the coasts seem to be more-and-more alien (quite literally) on every trip. So, as to New York and California - sorry, you may be a nice place to visit, but you can have your Big Apple and Golden Gate.
 
"I didn't leave my heart in San Francisco, I left my money!" -- Anonymous 
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time.
The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, login and sign up. Hope to see you in NY in September. 
Anyone without a TDAmeritrade (AMTD*) account can open a PaperMoney account - go to www.thinkorswim.com
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 7/27/2015 7:49:32 AM | 0 Comments
The earnings parade continues...

 

Thursday, 7/23/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA
 
- Births: Haile Selassie (1892); Pee Wee Reese (1919); Don Drysdale (1936); Woody Harrelson (1961). Deaths: Ulysses S Grant (1885); Vic Morrow (1982). 
- Two-years ago (7/23/13) the SPUs (/ES) were trading near 1690; One year ago (7/23/14) they were trading in the 1974 range; they traded near 2100 last Wednesday, traded overnight between 2109 and 2113.75, and are currently trading just over the lows of the overnight session - near 2110. So, the "no biggie" market is still, as the heir-to-the-mortgage would say - "chillin'". Major player's earnings like NFLX, GOOG, AAPL* and MSFT* might lose some individual market cap and crush those crazy enough to sell short term straddles and/or strangles in an attemp to benefit from pumped up volatility on the news, but rememeber - THERE IS A REASON FOR ELEVATED VOLAILITY! The market maker move (MMM) on the thinkorswim (AMTD*) platform is NOT to be used to BET THE RANCH or even a large piece of it! Risk definition is key on any type of news event, as the extent of the short term move can never be determined ahead of the announcement. No Market Maven, Prognosticator, Soothsayer, Witch, TV/Internet Talking Head, or even the best of Market Makers can predetermine any direction or it's magnitude. The earnings announcements continue in a big way - be smart and be careful! Just sayin'... 
- US stocks lost some ground Wednesday (7/22/15) on disappointing earnings reports from technology companies. (S&P 500 -0.24%, Dow -0.38%, NASDAQ -0.70%). Apple (AAPL* -4.23%) and Caterpillar (CAT* -2.99%) weighed on the major indices. US Treasuries were mostly higher as the demand for safe-haven/fixed-income assets increased on weak commodities and corporate earnings. Small-cap stocks were higher - Russell 2000 (RUT +0.30%). The VIX dropped 0.82% to 12.12. The 30-year (/ZBU5*) and 10-year (/ZNU5) yields fell to 3.04% and 2.32% respectively, while the 5-year (/ZFU5) yield climbed to 1.67%. Gold (/GCQ5*) fell 1.1% to 
 
$1091.40 an ounce, but is currently trading higher - right on the 1100 number. Crude oil futures (/CLU5*) fell to $49.19 a barrel, and are trading right about there this morning. The VIX dropped 0.82% to 12.12. 
- Today's possible movers: CI, LVS*, GM*, AAPL*, FB*, MU, SUNE*, BAC*,PBR*, MSFT*. 
- Today's economic events:
Initial Jobless Claims
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Leading Indicators
EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet 
- Notable earnings before the open: ABB, ABC, ADS, AEP, ALK, AMAG, AOS, ASPS, BCC, BHE, BKU, BMS, BMY, BSX, CAB, CAM, CAT*, CELG, CFX, CLFD, CMCSA, CMS, COR, CS, CSL, CY, DAN, DFRG, DGX, DHR, DLX, DNKN, DOW, DPS, DST, EQM, EQT, FAF, FCX, FIS, FNB, GM*, GMT, GNTX, GPI, GPK, HBAN, HERO, HUB.B, IMAX, IQNT, IVC, JNS, KKR, KMB, LAZ, LLY, LUV, MAC, MCD, MHO, MINI, MJN, MMM, MNRO, MRGE, NDAQ, NEO, NUE, NWE, ORI, PDS, PENN, PHM, PRLB, PTEN, QSII, R, RCI, RS, RTN, SCHL, SFE, SHPG, SNA, SQNS, STC, STM, SYNT, TCB, TROW, UA, UAL, UNP, USG, UTEK, VAC, VRX, WAB, WCC, WIT, WM, WRLD, XRS;
and after today's close: ABAX, ACTG, ALGN, ALTR, AMZN, ATHN, BCR, BJRI, BLDR, BYD, CA, CB, CBI, CHE, CLGX, CLS, COF, CPHD, CTCT, CYN, DGII, ETFC, FET, FII, FLEX, FSL, GHL, GIMO, HBHC, HWAY, IG, JNPR, LOGM, LSTR, MITK, MKTO, MSCC, MXIM, N, NANO, NTGR, P, PEB, PFG, PFPT, PMCS, QLIK, RGA, RHI, RSG, RT, SBUX, SIVB, SPNC, SRCL, STAG, SWKS, SYK, T, TRIP, TRN, UIS, V, VRSN, WIRE, WRE.
 
"Labor disgraces no man; unfortunately, you occasionally find men who disgrace labor.”-- Ulysses S Grant 
 
- If you are looking for a fabulous full-day of stock/options/futures education, please sign up for one of the upcoming Market Drive Saturday events. The next show is in New York (9/26) - hope to see you there.  www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive -  And look for us in the daily Swim Lesson chat room 10:30 - noon CT. Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169, or follow us on Twitter (TWTR) at whatsfrankthink or on Linkedin (LNKD). 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position) 
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 7/23/2015 8:12:40 AM | 0 Comments
Love your Lulu?

 

Wednesday, July 22, 2015, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
Gosh, was it really a mere 5-years ago that the SPUs (/ESU5*) were trading in the 1060 range? And who can forget how long Microsoft (MSFT*) hung around 25 just five years back? Was Facebook (FB*) really in the mid-twenty area at this time in 2012? How about TD Ameritrade (AMTD*) and it's fall from grace in July/August of a few years ago (2011), when it went from $20 down to the $13 neighborhood. Speaking of neighborhoods, we remember checking Delta Airlines (DAL*) puts in 2012, trying to book a flight to a trade show in San Francisco, after it was announced that they would be replacing Frontier (RJET*) as the only airline out of our summertime home of Rhinelander, Wisconsin. Yes, it was the $10 puts - the stock is now closer to $45.00! And it was at last year's San Francisco Money Show that we were somehow dragged kicking-and-screaming by some young and pretty thinkorswim gals to end up at the Lululemon (LULU*) on Grant Ave; the stock was at $38, and is now almost $64. And no puns about "that's a stretch"... 
 
We may have never owned, and probably never will, anything from Lululemon, but the crowd at that San Francisco store was about as "avid" as we have ever seen. Fellas - if you have never witnessed 100 or so young women almost frantically shopping for skin tight yoga outfits in a relatively small store, it is worth the trip! Besides, our mother's name was Louise, and her nickname was Lulu. As we always say "Trade what you know and know what you trade" - and what (who) do you know better than your own mother? Hence our stock/options positions in the oddly named "tights" maker. That makes us wonder if another name or shortened moniker for a woman is also called a nickname? Maybe a "Maryname" or "Pegname" would be more appropriate. But Lululemon sounds a lot better than Peglemon, with appologies to our sister Margaret, aka Peggy. Although if the name for LULU was truly for our mom or if it had been Peglemon for our sibling, we are sure we would have a much larger position than we currently do, and at a much better price!  
 
My my, now that was a tangent... our original premise was supposed to be based on believing in yourself and sticking to your convictions, while holding onto your long-term positions until your beliefs change. We constantly hear pundits talk negatively in regard to "falling in love with a stock." But if you continue to "love" a company's products and/or service, and continue to notice you are not alone in your stance (once again - no LULU pun), then why not. If you began your long term ownership (or short position) for sound reasons, even though partially personal, and you continue to enjoy the "marriage" then why change. Have you ever talked to a divorce lawyer? Talk about frightening! Ooops, sorry, not going to go off on another tangent. Especially one that could be that expensive! 
 
"You're getting a divorce? What happened, did she finally wake up?" -- MCG to GUR (OEX pit circa 1987)
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time.
The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, login and sign up. Hope to see you in New York in September. 
Anyone without a TDAmeritrade (AMTD*) account can open a PaperMoney account - go to www.thinkorswim.com
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 7/22/2015 7:26:36 AM | 0 Comments
Welcome home Tuesday 7/21/15

 

Tuesday, 7/21/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Births: Paul Julius Baron von Reuter (1816); Ernest Hemingway (1899); Don Knotts (1924); Cat Stevens (1947); Robin Williams (1951). Deaths: Robert Burns (1796); Basil Rathbone (1967); Jimmy Foxx (1967); James Fixx (1984). This was the day, in 1873, that Jesse James robbed his first train, and in 1969, Neil Armstrong took the 1st steps on the moon at 2:16:15 AM. 
- US equities closed slightly higher on Monday (7/20/15) on mostly better than expected corporate earnings reports. (S&P 500 +0.08%, Dow +0.08%, NASDAQ +0.17%). The SPUs (/ESU5*) are trading almost exactly where they were at this time in May (2122), so despite some short term volatility, the summer's news events have not really moved the dial. The Nasdaq (NDX) closed at another record high of 5,218.86. Visa (V +2.57%) and Apple (AAPL*+1.89%) led the major indices higher. Gold's (/GCQ5*) continued decline hurt shares of mining companies, with the yellow metal futures losing 2.2% to $1106.70 an ounce, it's lowest level since 3/10 - it is currently trading slightly lower to 1106. Crude futures (/CLU5*) dropped 1.5% to $50.15 a barrel - currently trading 50.40. Small-cap stocks were mostly lower - Russell 2000 (RUT- 0.54%). Volatility upticked, with the VIX up 2.51% to 12.25. US Treasuries retreated on Monday after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said chances that the U.S. central bank will raise short-term interest rates in September were better than 50%. The 30-year (/ZBU5*) yield rose to 3.10%, and the 10-year (/ZNU5) and 5-year */ZFU5) yields climbed to 2.37% and 1.71% respectively. There is a 52-week Bill auction today at 10:30 CT. The dollar (/DXU5) got over 98 and is trading just under that this morning. The softs were weak again with corn futures (/ZCZ5) now near 416 after seeing 454 just last week. 
- It was great seeing so many of our favorite clients at the San Francisco Money Show last week, and the fact that so many retail customers, thanks mostly to thinkorswim/TDAmeritrade (AMTD*), are now in tune to the markets and so option savvy continues to inspire us. As to the City by the Bay; the wharf was as busy and expensive as ever, and the trip down the hill from the Mission Street Marriott Marquis (MAR) was full of major downtown construction sites. Salesforce.com (CRM), for example, is building their 61-story world headquarters there. So, we guess the economy of San Francisco is somehow thriving, despite all of the rest of the state's economic and social woes. 
- Today's possible movers: AAPL*, CZR*, GIS, TRV, PYPL, VZ*, FB*, INFY, IOC*. 
- Today's economic event:
Redbook Chain Store Sales
- Notable earnings before the opening: ABG, AMTD*, ARMH, ATI, BHI, BK, C, CFG, CP, DOV, FITB, HOG, INFY, LODE, LXK, MAN, MBWM, NEOG, NVS, OMC, PLD, PNR, RF, SAP, SBNY, SNV, TRV, TTS, UTX, VZ, WSO, WWW; and after today's close: AAPL*, ACE, CMG, CMRE, CNMD, FTI, FULT, GPRO, HAWK, HTS, HUBG, IBKR, ILMN, IRBT, ISRG, KALU, LLTC, MANH, MSFT*, NAVI, PKG, VASC, VMW, YHOO, ZIXI .
 
"I'm sorry, if you were right, I'd agree with you." -- Robin Williams 
"There is no such uncertainty as a sure thing." -- Robert Burns 
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).
- Remember to sign into the daily live Swim Lesson - found up on the Support/Chat tab, running between 10:30 - noon CT. The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - with the next show in NYC on 9/26, go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 7/21/2015 8:03:02 AM | 0 Comments
Bastille Day - anyone care?

 

Bastille Day, Tuesday, 7/14/15, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
- Births: Frederick Maytag (1857); Woodie Guthrie (1912); Gerald Ford (1913). Deaths: Nostradamus (1556), King Faisal ll (1958). This was the day, in 1789, that the citizens of Paris stormed Bastille Prison, beginning the French Revolution. 
- Overnight futures have traded in a very tight range, from 2091.50 to 2095.25. Gosh, it felt almost like the old summertime nights, without a SPU alert waking us up in the middle-of-the-night!  They are currenly in the 2093 handle (6:58 am CT), whereas last week at this time they were trading in the 2065 area. Sorry media mavens, but we still think the Greek economic obscenity is yet to be resolved; China is still a bubbling cauldron of whacky numbers - in big size; and little Puerto Rico could cause some trouble, especially to all of the US bond holders. And to repeat what we said last week: "Our bigger concern should be whether 2000 SPU holds or if we can get back up over 2100. Can we stay in this narrow range the rest of the summer?" Considering many of our options positions are out closer to the "footballs fill the air" cycles, we wouldn't mind the market singing the words of the old Four Seasons or Jackson Browne song "why don't we stay just a little bit longer..."
- US equities ended the day very strong and in big-time positive territory on Monday (7/13) after a "supposed" resolution to Greece’s debt problems and ahead of a vast amount of corporate earnings reports this week. (S&P 500 +1.11%, Dow +1.22%, NASDAQ +1.48%). Small-cap stocks also advanced: Russell 2000 (RUT +1.06%). DuPont (DD +2.16%) and Microsoft (+2.08%) led the indices higher. Last week Monday saw the normally placid DuPont down over 2.9%. These are strange times when DuPont is a volatility "player"! The VIX dropped almost 17.5% to 13.90. US fixed-incomes were mostly lower on Monday after the Greek news made folks believe the country will stay in the EU. The 30-year Treasury (/ZBU5*) yield dropped to 3.23%, while the 10-year (/ZNU5) and 5-year (/ZFU5) yields went to 2.44% and 1.72% respectively. The soft commodities were relatively flat after their recent rise, and the metals too have become more stable as the "play" seems to be all equity and bond related. The US markets might be a little shaky this week with all of the earnings, along with Janet Yellen’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, retail sales data, industrial production numbers and consumer prices all coming this week. And we will be at the trade show in San Francisco - UFDAH!
- Today's possible movers: MU, FB*, IOC*, SLV*, JNJ; and the XLF might be active as JPM, WFC, BAC*, GS, BX, and BLK all announce earnings this week. 
- Today's economic events:
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
Retail Sales
Import/Export Prices
Redbook Chain Store Sales
Business Inventories
Fed's George: Monetary policy and Economic outlook
- Notable earnings before the opening: AIR, ATV, CBSH, FAST, JNJ, JPM, MILL, NORD, RMCF, WFC; and after today's close: ADTN, HCSG, CSX, PPHM, VIDE, PLG, YUM.
 
"After there is great trouble among mankind, a greater one is prepared. The great mover of the universe will renew time, rain, blood, thirst, famine, steel weapons and disease. In the heavens, a fire seen." - Nostradamus
 
- Like us on Facebook (FB*) -- https://www.facebook.com/frank.walsh.169 or follow on Twitter(TWTR) at whatsfrankthink, or on Linkedin (LNKD).Remember to sign into the daily live Swim Lesson - found up on the Support/Chat tab, running between 10:30 - noon CT. The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - with the next show in NYC on 9/26, go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, or for the July San Francisco Money Shows go to www.moneyshow.com 
 
FHW
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com 
What's Frank Thinking? | 7/14/2015 8:03:37 AM | 0 Comments
Google Greece - no biggie.

 

 
Monday, July 13, 2015, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA 
 
We have recently been talking of our appetite for anything Greece going down as fast as a gyros at Chicago's Athenian Room, but it seems like most people are not paying much attention to the island country of about 11 million. This newest announced bailout agreement might uptick the folks curiosity, but the deal hinges on the citizens and their leaders agreeing to almost the same terms they just rejected. So hang onto your hats, because Greek may yet to be departing from the Euro. Anyway, the newest form of checking the interest in just about anything is of course a social network site. Cocktail party chatter can now be multiplied by the millions via the Internet. Checking the amount of clicks might not be as tasty as the Mai Tais and Polish sausage at your neighbors cook-out, but Google's (GOOG) numbers might be easier to figure out than friendly neighbor Sue's torn jeans, or Uncle Jim's definition of democratic. 
 
Google searches for “Greece” in the US are no higher than before the Financial Crisis - pre '07. The search numbers did spike slightly in 2010 and last June, but overall interest in Greece has been mostly flat for the last 15 years, unlike the Greek debt that has been skyrocketing. Retirement at 60, with a 92% pension? C'mon Greece, how long did you think that could last with your aging population? But, we digreese - spelling pun intended! The typical American is, in fact, much more concerned with local topics in general and personal searches in particular. Entering the word "job", for instance, brings 10 to 20 times the number of Greek queries. Greece neighbor, the little land-locked neighboring Balkan nation of Macedonia and it's meager 2 million citizens gets about 1/2 the Google inqueries of Greece. Turkey trumps Greece in Google clicks too, even the City of Chicago slays Greece in Google searches, and Taylor Swift is right up there as well. Please don't ask why we were Googling Ms. Swift, but it had something to do with Apple (AAPL*). 
 
Now that we mention Taylor Swift and Apple, why don't they just team up and BUY Greece? Pay off their debt and have a nice vacation spot for Apple's employees and possibly a permanent place for live concerts for Swift and other celebrities. We wouldn't mind taking a Greek coastline vacation, and speaking of shoreline - Greece has miles-and-miles of gorgeous beach property. In fact, Greece come's in as the 11th nation is terms of coastline, and if their economy ever stabilizes, or Miss Swift takes it over, we might just find ourselves on the Greek island of Kefalonia and her Myrtos beach. C'mon Taylor and Apple, do the world a favor and bail Greece out - pocket change for you big-timers! 
 
"In Greece - wise men speak and fools decide." - George Sanayana  
 
Follow us on Twitter (TWTR): whatsfrankthink, like us on Facebook (FB*) - Frank Walsh Prescott, AZ or on Linkedin (LNKD), and join us in the online Swim Lesson chat room - everyday at 10:30 AM Central time.
The list of upcoming Market Drive events is now on the TDAmeritrade web-site - go to www.tdameritradeconferences.com/marketdrive, login and sign up. Hope to see you in New York in September, or at this week's Money Show in San Francisco. 
 
 
FHW 
(* = FHW position)
fhwoption@hotmail.com
What's Frank Thinking? | 7/13/2015 7:46:38 AM | 0 Comments