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ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 08.29.14
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

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The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Toppy. Not all out bearish on this timeframe but higher high and close on low of July bar.

WEEKLY - Bullish. Continuation higher from early August reversal, close above previous all-time high.

DAILY - Bullish. Market holding up well near highs as early gap down liquidation break is retraced easily with a close at the highs of the day.

Good morning traders. How long will the S&P 500 Index (SPX) stay in grind mode higher? One indication is discussed below.

We've plotted the thinkorswim implied volatility study under the daily chart of SPX.

Grinding markets, meaning those that move around 7-12 SPX points a day with little two way trade, occur most often to the upside. The low level of two way trade causes volatility to remain low. Therefore, low volatility is a characteristic of a market in grind mode.

One piece of evidence that a grind higher might be coming to an end is when implied volatility moves above 0.13 (magenta line).

For instance, between 05/15 and 07/16, the market moved higher in grinding fashion causing shorts to cry out "why isn't the market doing what I think it should? Manipulation!!".

This move did not end until implied volatility rose above 0.13. First, with a warning (red arrow) followed by the real thing (red circle).

Since 08/15, SPX has once again been in grind mode and as of yesterday's close, implied volatility remains below 0.13.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17079.57-42.44-0.25%
S&P 500 Index1996.74-3.38-0.17%
Nasdaq Composite4557.69-11.92-0.26%
Nasdaq 1004066.27-6.90-0.17%
Russell 20001165.95-6.76-0.58%
Spot Gold1290.40+5.10+0.40%
Crude Oil94.55+0.78+0.83%
NYSE Overall Volume2,266,638Kn/a-1.17%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,297,480Kn/a-4.9%
NYSE Breadth1.72 : 1negative
Nasdaq Breadth1.18 : 1negative
NYSE Breadth Ratio36.71
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio45.85
NYSE Advancers/Decliners-481
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners-815
NYSE Trin1.25
Nasdaq Trin0.62
$VIX12.050.27
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Friday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1996.50 4071.00
Point of Control 1996.00 4066.00
Value Area Low 1991.50 4060.50
R3 2008.834094.67
R2 2002.924083.58
R1 1999.834076.67
Pivot 1993.924065.58
S1 1990.834058.67
S2 1984.924047.58
S3 1981.834040.67


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Nine ShadowTrader Sectors closed higher on Thursday while sixteen closed lower. The mixed day relieved some overbought pressure so that no individual sectors, nor the broad market are flagging overbought conditions.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 08/29/2014

08:30 am EST - Personal Income and Outlays
09:45 am EST - Chicago PMI
09:55 am EST - Consumer Sentiment
Reporting earnings today: BIG


Monday - 09/01/2014

U.S. Holiday Labor Day - All Markets Closed
Reporting earnings today: No stocks priced $20 or higher with average daily volume of 500k or more reporting earnings.


Tuesday - 09/02/14

09:45 am EST - PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 am EST - ISM Mfg Index
10:00 am EST - Construction Spending
Reporting earnings today: CONN



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 08/25/14 - 08/29/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
LULUlong 22508/2040.11 n/a n/a 46.3540.11 open 40.590.48$108$9,025
  Gap down
ATHNlong 10008/25135.41 n/a n/a 166.00138.95 open 144.148.73$873$13,541
  Showed high relative strength on Thursday
WFMlong 30008/2739.07 n/a n/a 47.3037.80 open 39.1850.12$36$11,721
  Bought 100 more shares at 39.01
USOlong 75008/2835.27 n/a n/a 36.9034.60 open 35.320.05$38$26,453
  Entered on breakout from consolidation at long term ascending trendline
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 08/25/14 - 08/29/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
Nlong 25008/1883.4708/2787.0492.4582.90closed n/a3.57$893$20,868
  Took gains around prior high
AEGRlong 15008/2731.7508/2831.0146.0031.02closed n/a(0.74)($111)$4,763
  Trailing stop triggered
TOTALS: 1375 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $60,740

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/28/2014 10:32:34 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - USO Buy the ETF
 
August 28, 2014
 
Company: Crude Oil ETF  - (USO)
Action: Buy the ETF
Entry Price: 35.27
Shares: 750
Exit Price n/a
Stop: 34.60
Target: 36.90
 
Trade Explanation:  We have bought 750 shares in the crude oil ETF USO.  This trade set up was illustrated in today's ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader.
 
 
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/28/2014 2:07:33 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - AEGR Trailing Stop Hit
 
August 28, 2014
 
Company: Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.  - (AEGR)
Action: Trailing Stop Hit
Entry Price: 31.75
Shares: 200
Exit Price 31.01
Stop: 31.02
Target: 46.00
 
Trade Explanation:  Our trailing stop in AEGR was triggered.  We are out of the trade for a 0.73 point loss.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/28/2014 11:06:39 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - WFM Add to Position
August 28, 2014
 
 
 
Company: Whole Foods Mkt, Inc. - (WFM)
Action: Add to Position
Entry Price: 39.10
Shares: 100
Price 39.01
Stop: 37.80
Target: 47.30
 
Trade Explanation:  We have bought 100 more shares of WFM at 39.01.This brings our position up to 300 total shares
at an average price of 39.07.  The Stop and Target apply to all 300 shares.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/28/2014 10:54:14 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - AEGR Move the Stop
August 28, 2014
 
Company: Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.  - (AEGR)
Action: Move the Stop
Entry Price: 31.75
Shares: 200
Exit Price n/a
Stop: 31.02
Target: 46.00
 
Trade Explanation:  We have moved the stop on AEGR up to 31.02 which is just under today's low.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/28/2014 10:23:10 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 08.28.14
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Toppy. Not all out bearish on this timeframe but higher high and close on low of July bar.

WEEKLY - Bullish. Continuation higher from early August reversal, close above previous all-time high.

DAILY - Neutral to Bullish. Market balancing in tight range for two days at overbought levels.

Good morning traders. We're going off the beaten path of equities and into the oil patch for today's Looking Ahead section. Please observe the chart below.

We've outlined a descending wedge pattern that has formed on the daily chart of crude oil futures (/CL).

Inside that wedge, price has consolidated for the past eight trading days. A move out of the consolidation and the descending wedge would be a surprise for those expecting crude to proceed with another leg lower. Short covering could start a rally back to the upside where we would target the descending trendline (red dashed) from 06/13 highs.

We have posted entry and stop specifications for the crude oil ETF (USO) in today's Bulls and Bears section, however please use discretion with the entry price by basing it upon a breakout by /CL first, before entering the trade.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17122.01+15.31+0.09%
S&P 500 Index2000.12+0.10+0.01%
Nasdaq Composite4569.62-1.01-0.02%
Nasdaq 1004073.17+1.50+0.04%
Russell 20001172.71-2.46-0.21%
Spot Gold1285.3+4.48+0.35%
Crude Oil93.77-0.05-0.05%
NYSE Overall Volume2,293,488Kn/a-3.21%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,364,349Kn/a-3.27%
NYSE Breadth1.23 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth1.03 : 1positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio55.24
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio50.78
NYSE Advancers/Decliners404
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners-363
NYSE Trin1.06
Nasdaq Trin0.73
$VIX11.780.15
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Thursday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1998.25 4075.00
Point of Control 1997.25 4073.00
Value Area Low 1995.75 4067.00
R3 2006.674092.17
R2 2003.334084.58
R1 2000.174078.67
Pivot 1996.834071.08
S1 1993.674065.17
S2 1990.334057.58
S3 1987.174051.67


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Fifteen of twenty five ShadowTrader Sectors closed higher on Wednesday. $DJUSHC remains overbought with eleven consecutive higher closes. $DJUSRT is also overbought and has closed higher eight consecutive days.

Our statistical tracking of the ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores has triggered a short term bearish signal for the broad market as of Friday's close.

This indicator has been correct 81 of the last 110 signals as a predictor of a forthcoming short term move by the broad market. An indication is credited as being successful if within three trading days of the alert, SPY closes below its closing price on the day the alert was triggered.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 08/28/14

08:30 am EST - GDP
08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
10:00 am EST - Pending Home Sales Index
Reporting earnings today: ANF, AVGO, CSTM, DG, OVTI, PLL, SIG, SPLK, TD, VEEV


Friday - 08/29/2014

08:30 am EST - Personal Income and Outlays
09:45 am EST - Chicago PMI
09:55 am EST - Consumer Sentiment
Reporting earnings today: BIG


Monday - 09/01/2014

U.S. Holiday Labor Day - All Markets Closed
Reporting earnings today: No stocks priced $20 or higher with average daily volume of 500k or more reporting earnings.



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
USO 35.31 34.60 Please see today's Looking Ahead section
SODA 34.66 32.82 Please see Wednesday's ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 08/25/14 - 08/29/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
LULUlong 22508/2040.11 n/a n/a 46.3540.11 open 41.491.38$311$9,025
  Pause after three consecutive days higher
ATHNlong 10008/25135.41 n/a n/a 166.00138.95 open 143.077.66$766$13,541
  Continued higher on strong volume
AEGRlong 15008/2731.75 n/a n/a 46.0029.25 open 32.540.79$119$4,763
  Pharmaceutical stock following suit of others in the sector
WFMlong 20008/2739.10 n/a n/a 47.3037.80 open 39.80.7$140$7,820
  Strong move off higher low with above avg. volume
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 08/25/14 - 08/29/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
Nlong 25008/1883.4708/2787.0492.4582.90closed n/a3.57$893$20,868
  Took gains around prior high
TOTALS: 675 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $35,149

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/27/2014 11:02:58 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - WFM Move the Stop
August 27, 2014
 
Company: Whole Foods Mkt, Inc. - (WFM)
Action: Move the Stop
Entry Price: 39.10
Shares: 200
Price n/a
Stop: 37.80
Target: 47.30
 
Trade Explanation:  We are looking for follow through higher of WFM heading into tomorrow's session.  In the meantime, we have raised our stop to 37.80 which
is just under the short term ascending trendline from the low on 07/31.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/27/2014 3:49:31 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - N Sell the Stock
August 27, 2014
 
Company: NetSuite, Inc. - (N)
Action: Sell the Stock
Entry Price: 83.47
Shares: 250
Exit Price: 87.04
Stop: n/a
Target Price: n/a
 
Trade Explanation: We have sold our position in N for a solid gain.  WDAY reports earnings after the bell today.  
If you compare N and WDAY on a daily chart, you will find that the two stocks have a high correlation most often.  WDAY
has been on a tear for weeks ahead of earnings, so its possible good earnings news this evening gets sold.  Although
there are no guarantees this scenario will play out, we would rather lock in solid gains on this trade than keep them
at risk into WDAY earnings.
 
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/27/2014 3:39:16 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - ATHN Move the Stop
August 27, 2014
 
Company: Athena Health Inc. - (ATHN)
Action: Move the Stop
Entry Price: 135.41
Shares: 100
Price n/a
Stop: 138.95
Target: 166.00
 
Trade Explanation:  We have moved our stop on ATHN  to 138.95 which is just under the short term ascending trendline from the low
on 08/22.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/27/2014 2:38:11 PM | 0 Comments
Disregard second WFM buy post. First trade long at 39.10 stands. We got our signals crossed over here at ShadowTrader HQ.
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/27/2014 10:49:32 AM | 0 Comments