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ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 11.26.14
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Neutral. Huge range in October monthly bar which closed as a hammer at all time highs. This could be seen as a "hanging man" when we have a hammer at the top of a move which is a bearish signal.

WEEKLY - Bullish. Expansion of range on this timeframe out of tighter consolidation area.

DAILY - Bullish. Trend appears to be tired but with continued advance higher.

From everyone at ShadowTrader,
have a happy and safe Thanksgiving !!

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17814.94-2.96-0.02%
S&P 500 Index2067.03-2.38-0.12%
Nasdaq Composite4758.25+3.36+0.07%
Nasdaq 1004288.22+3.91+0.09%
Russell 20001186.33-0.60-0.05%
Spot Gold1198.10+2.50+0.21%
Crude Oil74.09-1.66-2.19%
NYSE Overall Volume3,358,201Kn/a+8.44%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,710,213Kn/a+10.16%
NYSE Breadth1.09 : 1negative
Nasdaq Breadth1.03 : 1positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio47.78
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio50.78
NYSE Advancers/Decliners225
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners-62
NYSE Trin1.27
Nasdaq Trin0.92
$VIX12.25-0.37
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Wednesday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 2069.50 4295.50
Point of Control 2067.00 4290.00
Value Area Low 2066.00 4289.00
R3 2083.004328.08
R2 2078.004315.67
R1 2072.754304.08
Pivot 2067.754291.67
S1 2062.504280.08
S2 2057.504267.67
S3 2052.254256.08


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Eight ShadowTrader Sectors closed higher on Tuesday while seventeen ended lower. No sectors, nor the broadmarket are overbought or oversold at this time.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 11/26/2014

08:30 am EST - Durable Goods Orders
08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
08:30 am EST - Personal Income and Outlays
09:55 am EST - Consumer Sentiment
10:00 am EST - New Home Sales
10:00 am EST - Pending Home Sales
10:30 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
Reporting earnings today: DE, GLNG, SDRL


Thursday - 11/27/2014

No economic data scheduled for release
Thanksgiving Day - All Markets Closed
Reporting earnings today: No stocks priced $20 or greater with daily average volume of 500k or more reporting earnings today.


Friday - 11/27/14

No economic data scheduled for release
Reporting earnings today: No stocks priced $20 or greater with daily average volume of 500k or more reporting earnings today.



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
Z 110.50-109.60 101.50 Please see the ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader
FMC 57.30 55.70 Please see Monday's Looking Ahead section
ASGN 31.27 29.84 Gap fill play
YELP 59.58 56.70 Looking for follow through off higher low

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 11/24/14 - 11/28/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
TRUElong 25011/1718.27 n/a n/a 22.0017.10 open 19.531.26$315$4,568
  Nice follow through higher out of base
THClong 35011/2449.41 n/a n/a 55.0047.70 open 49.15(0.26)($91)$17,294
  Close near Monday's breakout level
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 11/24/14 - 11/28/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
TOTALS: 600 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $21,862

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/25/2014 8:44:21 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 11.25.14
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Neutral. Huge range in October monthly bar which closed as a hammer at all time highs. This could be seen as a "hanging man" when we have a hammer at the top of a move which is a bearish signal.

WEEKLY - Bullish. Expansion of range on this timeframe out of tighter consolidation area.

DAILY - Bullish. Inside day near all time high.

Good morning traders. We used the "seasonality" chart mode on the thinkorswim platform by TD Ameritrade to produce the chart below.

The performance results of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) from 11/24 to 12/31 for each of the past five years are noted. In all five years, SPX traded higher.

If this is not enough to add seasonality weight to the bullish side of your bias, consider that SPX has closed higher 15 of the last 21 Novembers (71.43%) and 16 of the last 21 Decembers (76.19%)

The only other months of the year that come close to this rate of higher closes during the same time frame are March and April. In each of these months, SPX ended higher 16 of the last 21 times, or 71.43% of the time.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17817.90+7.84+0.04%
S&P 500 Index2069.41+5.91+0.29%
Nasdaq Composite4754.89+41.92+0.89%
Nasdaq 1004284.31+32.99+0.78%
Russell 20001186.93+14.52+1.24%
Spot Gold1195.60-2.10-0.18%
Crude Oil75.75-0.78-1.02%
NYSE Overall Volume3,096,950Kn/a-19.79%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,552,526Kn/a-15.43%
NYSE Breadth1.15 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth3.18 : 1positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio53.40
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio76.06
NYSE Advancers/Decliners769
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners1165
NYSE Trin1.46
Nasdaq Trin0.80
$VIX12.62-0.28
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Tuesday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 2067.75 4285.25
Point of Control 2067.75 4282.75
Value Area Low 2065.25 4271.75
R3 2074.674320.92
R2 2071.834303.83
R1 2069.674292.92
Pivot 2066.834275.83
S1 2064.674264.92
S2 2061.834247.83
S3 2059.674236.92


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Our statistical tracking of the ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores has triggered a short term bearish signal for the broad market as of Monday's close.

This indicator has been correct 83 of the last 113 signals as a predictor of a forthcoming short term move by the broad market. An indication is credited as being successful if within three trading days of the alert, SPY closes below its closing price on the day the alert was triggered.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 11/25/14

08:30 am EST - GDP
09:00 am EST - S&P Case-Shiller HPI
10:00 am EST - Consumer Confidence
Reporting earnings today: ADI, CPB, CTRP, DSW, EV, HPQ, HRL, NMBL, PLL, SIG, TIF


Wednesday - 11/26/2014

08:30 am EST - Durable Goods Orders
08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
08:30 am EST - Personal Income and Outlays
09:55 am EST - Consumer Sentiment
10:00 am EST - New Home Sales
10:00 am EST - Pending Home Sales
10:30 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
Reporting earnings today: DE, GLNG, SDRL, SDLP


Thursday - 11/27/2014

Thanksgiving Day - All Markets Closed
Reporting earnings today: No stocks priced $20 or greater with daily average volume of 500k or more reporting earnings today.



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
Z 110.50-109.60 101.50 Please see the ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader
FMC 57.30 55.70 Please see Monday's Looking Ahead section
ASGN 31.27 29.84 Gap fill play
YELP 58.95 55.68 Looking for follow through off higher low
PCLN 1167.50 1144.00 Anticipating breakout from short term pullback

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 11/24/14 - 11/28/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
TRUElong 25011/1718.27 n/a n/a 22.0017.10 open 190.73$183$4,568
  Closed near highs after breaking out from base
THClong 35011/2449.41 n/a n/a 55.0047.70 open 48.54(0.87)($305)$17,294
  Broke out, but failed to hold highs
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 11/24/14 - 11/28/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
TOTALS: 600 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $21,862

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/24/2014 9:26:26 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - THC Buy the Stock
November 24, 2014
 
Company: Tenet HealthCare Corp. - (THC)
Action: Buy the Stock
Entry Price: 49.41
Shares: 350
Exit Price: n/a
Stop: 47.70
Target: 55.00
 
Trade Explanation: We bought TMC off the higher low and move out of short term diamond reversal pattern.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/24/2014 10:10:20 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 11.24.14
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Neutral. Huge range in October monthly bar which closed as a hammer at all time highs. This could be seen as a "hanging man" when we have a hammer at the top of a move which is a bearish signal.

WEEKLY - Bullish. Expansion of range on this timeframe out of tighter consolidation area.

DAILY - Bullish to Neutral. Friday's gap retraced strongly but not back into range. Only change of bias would be acceptance back into prior range.

Good morning traders. We have five new long trade ideas listed in today's Bulls and Bears section. One of these is FMC Corp. (FMC). Please observe the chart below.

FMC has been winding up into the corner of the triangle illustrated by magenta lines. Based on our notations of resulting price action following each of the last three attempts by the stock to trade lower, we anticipate FMC will resolve to the upside.

We have an alert set for a long entry just over Friday's high with a target of 65.20. Placing a protective stop at 55.70, this setup offers a 4.9 to 1.0 reward to risk ratio.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17810.06+91.06+0.51%
S&P 500 Index2063.50+10.75+0.52%
Nasdaq Composite4712.96+11.10+0.24%
Nasdaq 1004251.32+9.23+0.22%
Russell 20001172.41+1.66+0.14%
Spot Gold1197.70+7.00+0.59%
Crude Oil76.53+0.71+0.94%
NYSE Overall Volume3,861,103Kn/a+24.75%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,835,845Kn/a+11.17%
NYSE Breadth3.56 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth1.41 : 1positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio78.09
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio58.49
NYSE Advancers/Decliners1005
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners107
NYSE Trin0.55
Nasdaq Trin0.77
$VIX12.90-0.68
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Monday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 2066.75 4269.00
Point of Control 2060.75 4252.00
Value Area Low 2056.75 4239.00
R3 2088.584323.67
R2 2080.424304.08
R1 2071.084276.67
Pivot 2062.924257.08
S1 2053.584229.67
S2 2045.424210.08
S3 2036.084182.67


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Twenty two of twenty five ShadowTrader Sectors ended higher on Friday. The three that closed lower were XBD, $DJUSSW, and XAL. No sectors are overbought or oversold at this time.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 11/24/2014

10:30 am EST - Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Reporting earnings today: BIG, QIHU, PANW, POST, SHLD, WDAY


Tuesday - 11/25/14

08:30 am EST - GDP
09:00 am EST - S&P Case-Shiller HPI
10:00 am EST - Consumer Confidence
Reporting earnings today: ADI, CPB, CTRP, DSW, EV, HPQ, HRL, NMBL, PLL, SIG, TIF


Wednesday - 11/26/2014

08:30 am EST - Durable Goods Orders
08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
08:30 am EST - Personal Income and Outlays
09:55 am EST - Consumer Sentiment
10:00 am EST - New Home Sales
10:00 am EST - Pending Home Sales
10:30 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
Reporting earnings today: DE, GLNG, SDRL, SDLP



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
Z 110.50-109.60 101.50 Please see the ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader
FMC 57.30 55.70 Please see today's Looking Ahead section
LCI 42.65 41.00 Entry at ascending trendline from 08/22 low
ASGN 31.27 29.84 Gap fill play
YELP 58.95 55.68 Looking for follow through off higher low

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 11/24/14 - 11/28/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
TRUElong 25011/1718.27 n/a n/a 22.0017.10 open 17.96(0.31)($78)$4,568
  Trading near top of range on daily chart
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 11/17/14 - 11/21/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
LENlong 25011/0744.4911/1745.3350.5043.40closed n/a0.84$210$11,123
  Exited trade on move under recent consolidation
URIlong 7511/03110.4911/17113.05120.00112.30closed n/a2.56$192$8,287
  Cut trade on failure to follow through higher off prior day's strong close
PHMlong 32511/0619.5711/1721.2824.6319.57closed n/a1.71$556$6,360
  Sold stock for 8.69% gain
SMCIshort 25011/2033.0011/2033.2529.8135.05closed n/a(0.25)($63)$8,250
  Scratched trade
TOTALS: 250 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $4,568

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/23/2014 8:17:52 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 11.21.14
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Neutral. Huge range in October monthly bar which closed as a hammer at all time highs. This could be seen as a "hanging man" when we have a hammer at the top of a move which is a bearish signal.

WEEKLY - Bullish to Neutral. Small body candle on this timeframe. Could indicate trend getting tired.

DAILY - Bullish. Gap down and large fade almost to all time high. Liquidation breaks and gaps continue to be bought up.

Good morning traders. Like the broad market, the Insurance Index ($DJSINS) is refusing to retrace lower. Please observe the chart below.

$DJSINS has consolidated just above prior highs for the past two weeks. If it is true that the market does not give traders this much time to take profits, then $DJSINS must be setting up to resolve higher.

We are watching components of the industry for long trade opportunities including AIG, MET, PRU, ACE, TRV, ALL, AFL, CB, HIG, and PFG.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17719.00+33.27+0.19%
S&P 500 Index2052.75+4.03+0.20%
Nasdaq Composite4701.86+26.15+0.56%
Nasdaq 1004242.09+19.42+0.46%
Russell 20001170.75+13.06+1.13%
Spot Gold1190.70-2.90-0.24%
Crude Oil75.82+1.37+1.84%
NYSE Overall Volume3,095,146Kn/a-8.21%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,651,407Kn/a+1.80%
NYSE Breadth2.01 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth2.73 : 1positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio66.83
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio73.19
NYSE Advancers/Decliners980
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners878
NYSE Trin0.96
Nasdaq Trin0.73
$VIX13.58-0.38
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Friday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 2052.00 4245.75
Point of Control 2051.00 4242.75
Value Area Low 2046.50 4228.25
R3 2072.674304.50
R2 2062.334275.50
R1 2057.174260.25
Pivot 2046.834231.25
S1 2041.674216.00
S2 2031.334187.00
S3 2026.174171.75


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Sixteen ShadowTrader Sectors closed higher yesterday while nine ended lower. No sectors are overbought or oversold at this time.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 11/21/2014

No economic data scheduled for release
Reporting earnings today: ANN, BERY, FL, HIBB, SIRO


Monday - 11/24/2014

10:30 am EST - Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Reporting earnings today: BIG, QIHU, PANW, WDAY


Tuesday - 11/25/14

08:30 am EST - GDP
09:00 am EST - S&P Case-Shiller HPI
10:00 am EST - Consumer Confidence
Reporting earnings today: ADI, BWS, CPB, CTRP, DSW, GLNG, HPQ, SIG, TIF, VNET



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 11/17/14 - 11/21/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
TRUElong 25011/1718.27 n/a n/a 22.0017.10 open 18.05(0.22)($55)$4,568
  Reversal back to top of range on daily chart
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 11/17/14 - 11/21/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
LENlong 25011/0744.4911/1745.3350.5043.40closed n/a0.84$210$11,123
  Exited trade on move under recent consolidation
URIlong 7511/03110.4911/17113.05120.00112.30closed n/a2.56$192$8,287
  Cut trade on failure to follow through higher off prior day's strong close
PHMlong 32511/0619.5711/1721.2824.6319.57closed n/a1.71$556$6,360
  Sold stock for 8.69% gain
SMCIshort 25011/2033.0011/2033.2529.8135.05closed n/a(0.25)($63)$8,250
  Scratched trade
TOTALS: 250 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $4,568

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/20/2014 11:10:17 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - SMCI Cover Short
November 20, 2014
 
Company: Super Micro Computer, Inc. - SMCI
Action: Cover Short
Entry Price: 33.01
Shares: 250
Exit Price: 33.25
Stop: n/a
Target: n/a
 
 
Trade Explanation: We have Coverd our Short in SMCI.  Moves lower are not sticking.  Market still not ready to short.
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/20/2014 12:06:09 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - SMCI Sell Stock Short
November 20, 2014
 
Company: Super Micro Computer, Inc. - SMCI
Action: Sell Stock Short
Entry Price: 33.01
Shares: 250
Exit Price: n/a
Stop: 35.05
Target: 29.81
 
 
Trade Explanation: We have sold SMCI short per the setup profiled in today's ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader.
 
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/20/2014 9:36:45 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 11.20.14
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Neutral. Huge range in October monthly bar which closed as a hammer at all time highs. This could be seen as a "hanging man" when we have a hammer at the top of a move which is a bearish signal.

WEEKLY - Bullish to Neutral. Small body candle on this timeframe. Could indicate trend getting tired.

DAILY - Neutral to Bullish. Market corrected a bit yesterday, but closed above high of balance.

Good morning traders. Today we have listed two short trade ideas in the Bulls and Bears where the stocks are just beginning to rollover from recent highs. One of these is Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI). Please observe the chart below.

SMCI broke its ascending trendline yesterday leaving behind the high of an approximate 55.0% move up from the October lows.

We're looking for follow through lower and for the correction to carry the stock down to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level around 29.81 which also ties in with support of prior highs (magenta line).

As a follow up to yesterday's Looking Ahead section, the broad market regained some lost ground from early trade yesterday, however daily market internals had no improvement to speak of. Until they begin to show some life, we will be cautious to initiate new longs.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17685.73-2.09-0.01%
S&P 500 Index2048.72-3.08-0.15%
Nasdaq Composite4675.71-26.73-0.57%
Nasdaq 1004222.66-19.52-0.46%
Russell 20001157.68-12.60-1.08%
Spot Gold1193.60-3.20-0.27%
Crude Oil74.45-0.14-0.19%
NYSE Overall Volume3,3718,05Kn/a-0.31%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,622,228Kn/a-0.86%
NYSE Breadth1.66 : 1negative
Nasdaq Breadth2.42 : 1negative
NYSE Breadth Ratio37.54
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio29.24
NYSE Advancers/Decliners-737
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners-1146
NYSE Trin1.02
Nasdaq Trin0.96
$VIX13.960.10
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Thursday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 2047.00 4230.50
Point of Control 2044.00 4223.00
Value Area Low 2041.00 4214.50
R3 2065.334275.17
R2 2057.924257.08
R1 2052.584240.42
Pivot 2045.174222.33
S1 2039.834205.67
S2 2032.424187.58
S3 2027.084170.92


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Six ShadowTrader Sectors closed lower yesterday while nineteen ended higher. Those that closed higher were $DJUSRT, XNG, XOI, CEX, UTY, and $DJSINS. No sectors are overbought or oversold at this time.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 11/20/14

08:30 am EST - Consumer Price Index
08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
09:45 am EST - PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
10:00 am EST - Philadelphia Fed Survey
10:00 am EST - Existing Home Sales
Reporting earnings today: BBY, GME, GPS,  JKS, MBLY


Friday - 11/21/2014

No economic data scheduled for release
Reporting earnings today: BERY, FL


Monday - 11/24/2014

10:30 am EST - Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Reporting earnings today: PANW, QIHU, WDAY



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
SMCI 33.12 35.05 Please see today's Looking Ahead section
IP 54.06 55.23 Entry on undercut of Wednesday's low

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 11/17/14 - 11/21/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
TRUElong 25011/1718.27 n/a n/a 22.0017.10 open 17.58(0.69)($173)$4,568
  Tightened stop up to 17.10
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 11/17/14 - 11/21/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
LENlong 25011/0744.4911/1745.3350.5043.40closed n/a0.84$210$11,123
  Exited trade on move under recent consolidation
URIlong 7511/03110.4911/17113.05120.00112.30closed n/a2.56$192$8,287
  Cut trade on failure to follow through higher off prior day's strong close
PHMlong 32511/0619.5711/1721.2824.6319.57closed n/a1.71$556$6,360
  Sold stock for 8.69% gain
TOTALS: 250 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $4,568

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/19/2014 10:19:16 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - PHM Sell the Stock
November 19, 2014
 
Company: Pulte Group Inc. - (PHM)
Action: Sell the Stock
Entry Price: 19.57
Shares: 325
Exit Price: 21.28
Stop: n/a
Target: n/a
 
Trade Explanation: We sold PHM to lock in a 8.69% gain.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/19/2014 10:02:16 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - TRUE Move the Stop
November 19, 2014
 
Company: True Care Inc.  - (TRUE)
Action: Move the Stop
Entry Price: 18.36
Shares: 250
Exit Price: n/a
Stop: 17.10
Target: 22.00
 
Trade Explanation:  We moved our stop on True to just under the short term ascending trendline.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/19/2014 9:39:54 AM | 0 Comments