ShadowTrader Swing Trader rss
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 04.01.15
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Neutral. Closed near the middle of prior month's price range.

WEEKLY - Bearish to Neutral. Candles lining up same size bodies.

DAILY - Bearish. Traded back down to the six month ascending trendline.

Good morning traders. Something smells bad about this market. Not necessarily in the short term and not just because of the selloff in broad market futures overnight.

We spent a good amount of time last evening looking for the rotting fish under the hood, but outside of a few lower highs by broad market measures that are duplicating indicey price action, there isn't anything that stands out at the moment. Let's move to the chart of the EMini S&P 500 Index Futures (/ES) below.

The fact is that all bulls really have had to hang their hats on in the last six trading days is Monday's large reversal candle (green arrow) which has now been nullified by Tuesday's move lower and last evenings continuation to the downside. It is notable that these moves come on the heels of a lower high (blue circles) and have put price back below the six month trendline.

Maybe the fact that nothing under the hood is pronounced enough to indicate forthcoming bearishness means that it isn't the market itself that stinks, but something the market is sniffing outside of itself that stinks.

There's no question the stock market has an inherent sense for unusual negative future events that cannot be anticipated. Perhaps the stock market is sensing some sort of future negative event resulting from the political negotiations in Switzerland or possibly the increase of earnings reductions coming in from U.S. firms?

Whatever it is, we cannot know for sure. What we can do though is continue to closely look for technical tells, such as a move below the ascending trendline in the picture above, that will point us in the right direction to anticipate future market moves. Currently, there isn't anything bullish about the daily price action of the S&P 500 Index.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17976.31+263.65+1.49%
S&P 500 Index2086.24+25.22+1.22%
Nasdaq Composite4947.44+56.22+1.15%
Nasdaq 1004382.81+49.95+1.15%
Russell 20001257.8023-5.03-0.40%
Spot Gold1183.20-2.80-0.24%
Crude Oil47.72-0.93-1.91%
NYSE Overall Volume3,318,215Kn/a+14.87%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,773,435Kn/a+0.57%
NYSE Breadth5.52 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth2.34 : 1positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio84.67
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio70.10
NYSE Advancers/Decliners1498
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners1021
NYSE Trin0.52
Nasdaq Trin0.94
$VIX14.51-0.56
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Wednesday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 2070.00 4369.75
Point of Control 2059.50 4358.75
Value Area Low 2056.50 4345.25
R3 2089.584402.58
R2 2082.924386.67
R1 2071.834358.08
Pivot 2065.174342.17
S1 2054.084313.58
S2 2047.424297.67
S3 2036.334269.08


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Twenty three of twenty five ShadowTrader Sectors closed lower on Tuesday. The two sectors that closed higher were XNG, and $DJUSHB. GDX remains oversold with 6 consecutive lower closes. Beyond this, no other sectors, nor the broad marekt, are overbought or oversold at this time.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 04/01/2015

Motor Vehicle Sales 08:15 am EST - ADP Employment Report
09:45 am EST - PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 am EST - ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 am EST - Construction Spending
10:30 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
Reporting earnings today: AYI, MON, MU


Thursday - 04/02/2015

08:30 am - International Trade
08:30 am - Jobless Claims
10:00 am - Factory Orders
Reporting earnings today: KMX


Friday - 04/03/15

08:30 am EST - Employment Situation
Reporting earnings today: No stocks priced $20 or greater with average daily volume of 500k or more reporting earnings.



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 03/30/15-04/03/15
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
TWTRlong 10003/1948.02 n/a n/a 60.0048.02 open 49.891.87$187$4,802
  Moved stop up to breakeven
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 03/30/15-04/03/15
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
TOTALS: 100 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $4,802

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2015

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 3/31/2015 11:02:37 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 03.31.15
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Bullish. Large body candle on this timeframe with new all time high.

WEEKLY - Bearish to Neutral. Candles lining up same size bodies.

DAILY - Bullish to Neutral. Large one day reversal putting market back into middle of range.

Good morning traders. Yesterday we moved the stop on our Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) long position to breakeven. Recent price action has now provided an opportunity to either add to an existing position or initiate a new long position. Please observe the chart below.

We've noted the location of our initial entry and that we have moved our protective stop up to breakeven. Yesterday's price action in TWTR left a relatively long tail on the daily price bar indicating the stock has support just over our trailing stop.

Follow through over yesterday's high will break the short term pullback and is a good location to add to or initiate a long position for continuation higher while maintaining a protective stop at our prior entry of 48.09.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17976.31+263.65+1.49%
S&P 500 Index2086.24+25.22+1.22%
Nasdaq Composite4947.44+56.22+1.15%
Nasdaq 1004382.81+49.95+1.15%
Russell 20001257.80+17.39+1.40%
Spot Gold1186.00-14.70-1.22%
Crude Oil48.65-0.22-0.45%
NYSE Overall Volume2,888,727Kn/a-2.46%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,763,441Kn/a+6.47%
NYSE Breadth5.52 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth2.34 : 1positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio84.67
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio70.1
NYSE Advancers/Decliners1498
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners1021
NYSE Trin0.52
Nasdaq Trin0.94
$VIX14.51-0.56
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Tuesday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 2080.75 4375.50
Point of Control 2078.75 4375.00
Value Area Low 2073.25 4361.50
R3 2100.584418.58
R2 2091.174400.17
R1 2083.334386.33
Pivot 2073.924367.92
S1 2066.084354.08
S2 2056.674335.67
S3 2048.834321.83


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Twenty three of twenty five ShadowTrader Sectors closed higher on Monday. The two sectors that closed lower were TOB, and GDX. GDX flagged an oversold signal with its 5 consecutive lower close. Beyond this, no other sectors, nor the broad marekt, are overbought or oversold at this time.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 03/31/15

09:00 am EST - S&P Case-Schiller HPI
09:45 am EST - Chicago PMI
10:00 am EST - Consumer Confidence
Reporting earnings today: CLDN, CONN


Wednesday - 04/01/2015

Motor Vehicle Sales 08:15 am EST - ADP Employment Report
09:45 am EST - PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 am EST - ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 am EST - Construction Spending
10:30 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
Reporting earnings today: AYI, MON


Thursday - 04/02/2015

08:30 am - International Trade
08:30 am - Jobless Claims
10:00 am - Factory Orders
Reporting earnings today: KMX, MU



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 03/30/15-04/03/15
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
TWTRlong 10003/1948.02 n/a n/a 60.0048.02 open 49.891.87$187$4,802
  Moved stop up to breakeven
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 03/23/15-03/27/15
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
HPQlong 15003/0932.9903/2532.536.3032.50closed n/a(0.49)($74)$4,949
  Trailing stop triggered
TOTALS: 100 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $4,802

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2015

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 3/30/2015 8:57:55 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - TWTR Move the Stop
March 30, 2015
 
Company: Twitter, Inc.  - (TWTR)
 
Action: Move the Stop
Entry Price: 48.09
Shares: 100
Exit Price: n/a
Stop: 48.09
Target: 60.00
 
Trade Explanation:  We moved our stop on TWTR up to breakeven on today's relative weakness.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 3/30/2015 11:42:37 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 03.30.15
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Bullish. Large body candle on this timeframe with new all time high.

WEEKLY - Bearish to Neutral. Candles lining up same size bodies.

DAILY - Bearish. But difficult to say if oversold at the moment or heading lower from here.

Good morning traders. The second of two short trade ideas listed in today's Bulls and Bears section is Robert Half International, Inc. (RHI). The setup is illustrated on the chart below.

Over the past two months, RHI has put in a double top. Last week the stock broke its year to date uptrend by closing beneath the ascending trendline.

The feeble reversal on Thursday and Friday could be a signal that the stock is only pausing before another leg lower. This scenario becomes a greater possibility with if the broad market shows further weakness.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17712.66+34.43+0.19%
S&P 500 Index2061.02+4.87+0.24%
Nasdaq Composite4891.21+27.85+0.57%
Nasdaq 1004332.86+17.60+0.41%
Russell 20001240.40+8.42+0.68%
Spot Gold1200.70-4.20-0.35%
Crude Oil48.87-2.56-4.98%
NYSE Overall Volume2,961,568Kn/a-14.97%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,656,355Kn/a-16.80%
NYSE Breadth1.13 : 1negative
Nasdaq Breadth1.81 : 1positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio46.88
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio64.41
NYSE Advancers/Decliners653
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners449
NYSE Trin1.75
Nasdaq Trin0.77
$VIX15.07-0.73
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Monday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 2053.00 4323.75
Point of Control 2052.00 4311.25
Value Area Low 2049.00 4309.00
R3 2067.584374.67
R2 2061.174354.08
R1 2056.834339.92
Pivot 2050.424319.33
S1 2046.084305.17
S2 2039.674284.58
S3 2035.334270.42


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


ShadowTrader Sectors were split on Friday. Twelve sectors closed higher while thirteen ended lower. Three sectors flagged oversold readings with their fifth consecutive lower close. These are $DJSINS, $DJUSRR, and $DJUSIT. Three other sectors are one lower daily close away from being oversold. These are XTC, $DJUSCA, and GDX.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 03/30/2015

08:30 am - Personal Income and Outlays
10:00 am - Pending Home Sales Index
10:30 am - Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Reporting earnings today: CALM


Tuesday - 03/31/15

09:00 am EST - S&P Case-Schiller HPI
09:45 am EST - Chicago PMI
10:00 am EST - Consumer Confidence
Reporting earnings today: CLDN, CONN


Wednesday - 04/01/2015

Motor Vehicle Sales 08:15 am EST - ADP Employment Report
09:45 am EST - PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 am EST - ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 am EST - Construction Spending
10:30 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
Reporting earnings today: MON



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
BC 50.62 51.80 Please see the Swing Trader Weekend Update
RHI 59.43 60.63 Please see today's Looking Ahead section

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 03/30/15-04/03/15
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
TWTRlong 10003/1948.02 n/a n/a 60.0047.77 open 50.011.99$199$4,802
  Holding gains
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 03/23/15-03/27/15
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
HPQlong 15003/0932.9903/2532.536.3032.50closed n/a(0.49)($74)$4,949
  Trailing stop triggered
TOTALS: 100 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $4,802

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2015

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 3/29/2015 9:14:14 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 03.27.15
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Bullish. Large body candle on this timeframe with new all time high.

WEEKLY - Bullish. Expansion of range on this timeframe and within striking distance of all time highs.

DAILY - Bearish. Continued price exploration downward with close below prior day's low after entry back into prior day's range.

Good morning traders. In the March 6th issue of the ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader, we pointed out how the Dow Jones Transportation Index (DTX) had not confirmed the new high recently made by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJX). Per the Dow Theory, the new high made by DJX was not necessarily a bullish signal unless DTX also made a new high.

Let's fast forward to yesterday's close and check back in with the Dow Theory on the chart below.

The red circles highlight the point referenced in the March 6th issue when we were watching DTX for bullish confirmation of the new high made by DJX. Unfortunately for bulls, the confirmation never occurred.

Now the tables have turned where both DJX and DTX have made lower highs, and DJX has made a lower low.

Once again we will be watching DTX to see if it provides a bearish conformation by making a new lower low as well. If so, it would be additional technical information signaling further downside for stocks.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17678.23-40.31-0.23%
S&P 500 Index2056.15-4.90-0.24%
Nasdaq Composite4863.36-13.15-0.27%
Nasdaq 1004315.25-14.02-0.32%
Russell 20001231.98-1.87-0.15%
Spot Gold1204.90+13.40+1.12%
Crude Oil51.43+3.90+8.21%
NYSE Overall Volume3,482,959Kn/a+10.28%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,990,701Kn/a+24.74%
NYSE Breadth1.93 : 1negative
Nasdaq Breadth1.41 : 1negative
NYSE Breadth Ratio34.09
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio41.41
NYSE Advancers/Decliners-644
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners-250
NYSE Trin1.26
Nasdaq Trin1.17
$VIX15.800.36
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Friday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 2053.00 4322.00
Point of Control 2048.00 4308.50
Value Area Low 2043.50 4289.00
R3 2081.924396.50
R2 2070.334363.75
R1 2059.424337.25
Pivot 2047.834304.50
S1 2036.924278.00
S2 2025.334245.25
S3 2014.424218.75


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Twenty of twenty five ShadowTrader Sectors closed lower on Thursday. The five sectors that closed higher were were XBD, $DJUSSW, $DJUSBK, OSX, and CEX. BTK flagged an oversold signal with its fifth consecutive lower close. Six other sectors would signal an oversold condition with another close lower today. These are $DJUSIT, $DJUSRE, $DJUSHC, $DJUSRR, SOX, and $DJSINS.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 03/27/2015

08:30 am EST - GDP
10:00 am EST - Consumer Sentiment
Reporting earnings today: CCL, FINL


Monday - 03/30/2015

08:30 am - Personal Income and Outlays
10:00 am - Pending Home Sales Index
10:30 am - Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Reporting earnings today: CALM


Tuesday - 03/31/15

09:00 am EST - S&P Case-Schiller HPI
09:45 am EST - Chicago PMI
10:00 am EST - Consumer Confidence
Reporting earnings today: CLDN, CONN



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 03/23/15-03/27/15
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
TWTRlong 10003/1948.02 n/a n/a 60.0047.77 open 49.921.9$190$4,802
  Testing breakout level
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 03/23/15-03/27/15
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
HPQlong 15003/0932.9903/2532.536.3032.50closed n/a(0.49)($74)$4,949
  Trailing stop triggered
TOTALS: 100 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $4,802

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2015

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 3/26/2015 9:20:09 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 03.26.15
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Bullish. Large body candle on this timeframe with new all time high.

WEEKLY - Bullish. Expansion of range on this timeframe and within striking distance of all time highs.

DAILY - Bearish. Daily chart rolling over a bit with large extension of range to the downside yesterday.

Good morning traders. In the picture below, we've provided an example of how using technical indicators on broad market measures, such as the NYSE Cumulative TICK (TICK), can be useful tools in an overall analysis of the broad market.

In the example above, we have applied a standard Relative Strength Indicator (14) (RSI) to TICK. It is interesting to note that sizeable moves lower by the S&P 500 Index (SPX) took place following three out of the last four times RSI moved below the 70 level (red horizontal lines and arrows).

Yesterday, RSI broke below 70 again. We think this is a reliable forward looking bearish signal for the broad market, not because of the size of yesterday's SPX move lower, but because the RSI applied to TICK showed weakness with a lower high (blue arrow) at the second SPX top of the recent double top (green circles).

No single indicator is correct 100% of the time, but this reading should be added to the market narrative moving forward.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17718.54-292.60-1.62%
S&P 500 Index2061.05-30.45-1.46%
Nasdaq Composite4876.51-118.20-2.37%
Nasdaq 1004329.28-101.69-2.30%
Russell 20001233.85-29.61-2.34%
Spot Gold1197.20+5.70+0.48%
Crude Oil49.19+1.66+3.49%
NYSE Overall Volume3,440,780Kn/a+8.94%
Nasdaq Overall Volume2,184,869Kn/a+36.90%
NYSE Breadth3.08 : 1negative
Nasdaq Breadth5.85 : 1negative
NYSE Breadth Ratio24.53
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio14.59
NYSE Advancers/Decliners-1448
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners-1732
NYSE Trin1.10
Nasdaq Trin1.28
$VIX15.441.82
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Thursday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 2078.00 4394.50
Point of Control 2065.00 4353.00
Value Area Low 2052.50 4320.00
R3 2114.924515.67
R2 2102.084475.83
R1 2077.924399.67
Pivot 2065.084359.83
S1 2040.924283.67
S2 2028.084243.83
S3 2003.924167.67


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Twenty one ShadowTrader Sectors closed lower on Wednesday while four closed higher. The four that closed higher were XNG, XOI, OSX, and $DJUSCL. No sectors, nor the braod market, are overbought or oversold at this time.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 03/26/15

08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
Reporting earnings today: ACN, CAG, GME, LULU, RH, SIG, WGO


Friday - 03/27/2015

08:30 am EST - GDP
10:00 am EST - Consumer Sentiment
Reporting earnings today: CCL, FINL


Monday - 03/30/2015

08:30 am - Personal Income and Outlays
10:00 am - Pending Home Sales Index
10:30 am - Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Reporting earnings today: CONN, CLDN



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 03/23/15-03/27/15
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
TWTRlong 10003/1948.02 n/a n/a 60.0047.77 open 49.51.48$148$4,802
  Testing breakout level
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 03/23/15-03/27/15
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
HPQlong 15003/0932.9903/2532.536.3032.50closed n/a(0.49)($74)$4,949
  Trailing stop triggered
TOTALS: 100 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $4,802

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2015

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 3/25/2015 9:42:47 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - HPQ - Trailing Stop Triggered
March 25, 2015
 
Company: Hewlett Packard Co. - (HPQ)
Action: Trailing Stop Triggered
Buy Stop Price: 32.99
Shares: 150
Exit Price: 32.50
Stop: n/a
Target: n/a
 
Trade Explanation: Our trailing stop for HPQ was triggered at 32.50, we were stopped out for a small loss.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 3/25/2015 1:32:27 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - GILD Stopped Out
March 25, 2015
 
Company: Gilead Sciences, Inc. - (GILD)
Action: Stopped Out
Entry Price: 102.22
Shares: 100
Price n/a
Stop: n/a
Target: n/a
 
Trade Explanation:  Our stop on GILD was triggered at 101.50 for a small loss.  We are now flat the stock.
 
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 3/25/2015 11:20:46 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - GILD Buy the Stock
March 25, 2015
 
Company: Gilead Sciences, Inc. - (GILD)
Action: Buy the Stock
Entry Price: 102.27
Shares: 100
Price n/a
Stop: 101.50
Target: 107.75
 
Trade Explanation:  We have initiated a position in GILD which is poised to breakout from recent consolidation.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 3/25/2015 9:40:41 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader - /ES Pivots Updated

Today's /ES pivots have been updated in the ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 3/25/2015 8:53:03 AM | 0 Comments