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ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 02.07.12 $GLD $GC_F #stocks #trading



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The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

 

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

 

Good morning traders. As a follow up to Peter's weekly video in the ShadowTrader Weekend Update, gold (/GC) has all but touched the first long entry point of the recent pullback. Please observe the chart below.

 

 

Ascending (or descending) trendline support has the highest probability of holding on the first touch after the line has been established by the first two higher-lows (blue circles). This along with the clean price action by /GC, and yesterday's price deceleration to the downside suggests that a bounce off the trendline is more probable.

Taking a long position in /GC with a stop just under the trendline is a good trade in our book, at least as an opportunity to capitalize on a bounce.

An alternative is to establish a plan to build a position beginning with a "nibble" on a touch of the ascending trednline while remaining capital is reserved in case price moves closer to 1678.00 (blue line).

Remember, price should not undercut the low of the high emotion price bar at 1649.20 (black arrow). If it does, we would have to reassess our bullish bias.

Those that trade GLD in lieu of /GC should use the GC chart as primary since in tracks the price of gold around the clock.

 

Under The Hood

 

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12845.13 -17.10 -0.13%
S&P 500 Index 1344.33 -0.57 -0.04%
Nasdaq Composite 2901.99 -3.67 -0.13%
Nasdaq 100 2528.30 -0.87 -0.03%
Russell 2000 828.37 -2.74 -0.33%
Spot Gold 1719.90 -6.00 -0.35%
Crude Oil 96.91 -0.93 -0.95%
NYSE Overall Volume 6,867,530K n/a -24.13%
Nasdaq Overall Volume 1,672,804K n/a -21.83%
NYSE Breadth 1.15 : 1 negative  
Nasdaq Breadth 1.16 : 1 negative  
NYSE Breadth Ratio 46.55    
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio 46.20    
NYSE Advancers/Decliners -536    
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners -480    
NYSE Trin 0.81    
Nasdaq Trin 0.79    
$VIX 17.76 0.66  
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Tuesday    
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1339.25 2523.75
Point of Control 1337.755 2519.25
Value Area Low 1336.75 2515.75
R3 1348.50 2545.08
R2 1344.50 2535.42
R1 1341.75 2530.58
Pivot 1337.75 2520.92
S1 1335.00 2516.08
S2 1331.00 2506.42
S3 1328.25 2501.58

Pivot points provided by Prodigio RTS. For more information contact: prodigio@thinkorswim.com
 

ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

 

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Some froth came off the the general list yesterday with the broad market's move sideways, although a number of sectors remain stretched to the upside. BTK has closed higher for seven straight days. $DJUSNS, XOI, and XTC have all closed higher for five consecutive days. From a technical standpoint, bulls would be well served by another sideways to down day.

 

Heads Up

 

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 02/07/2011

03:00 pm EST - Consumer Credit
Reporting earnings today: AGCO, AMX, AXS, BCE, BDX, BR, BWLD, CERN, CFX, CHD, DEI, DFT, DIS, EMR, GET, GSK, HAR, HIW, KO, LIFE, LNC, LRY, MLM, NTGR, OHI, OPEN, PNRA, PRGO, SMG, STE, SWI


Wednesday - 02/08/2012

10:30 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
Reporting earnings today: AGU, AIV, AKAM, ALR, BGC, BJRI, CINF, CSC, CSCO, CTSH, CVH, CVS, CXW, EFX, GIL, GRP, HBI, ICE, IR, LVLT, MCO, ORLY, PAA, PRU, RAI, RL, SCSS, TCO, THOR, TIN, TRIP, TWX, V, VMED, WFM, WYN


Thursday- 02/09/2012

07:00 am EST - BOE Announcement
07:45 am EST - ECB Announcement
08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
10:00 am EST - Wholesale Trade
10:30 am EST - EIA Natural Gas Report
Reporting earnings today: ALXN, AMX, BCE, BG, CCE, CCJ, CLI, DNKN, EXPE, GDI, LNKD, LO , NBL, NUAN, NXPI, OFC, PEP, PL, PM, RSG, SEE, SI, SNI, SPR, TCK , TDC, TRI , XL

 

Bulls and Bears

 

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
CRR 91.00-90.00 83.60 Relisted - Please see the ShadowTrader Weekend Update

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
CF 192.00-193.00 199.75 Relisted - Looking for reversal off 6 month highs
EMN 55.21-55.51 57.04 Relisted - Please see Monday's Looking Ahead section
 

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

 

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 02/06/12 - 02/10/12
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
DELL short 600 02/01 17.41 n/a n/a 16.50 18.10 open 17.65 (0.24) ($144) $10,446
  Reversal play off prior high
HLF long 150 02/03 58.50 n/a n/a 62.00 55.45 open 59.19 0.69 $104 $8,775
  Breakout from consolidation
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 02/06/12 - 02/10/12
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None                          
TOTALS: 750 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $19,221

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008
 

All content © 2012 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 2/6/2012 9:31:12 PM | 0 Comments