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ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 02.09.12 $SPY $DBD $MSFT #trading #stocks
ShadowTrader Swing Trader |
2/8/2012 10:51:51 PM
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The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.
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Swing Trader User's Guide
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Good morning traders. Stock market resiliency could be tested again today as news from Greece will have heavy influence on price action. Either a bailout will be solidified as soon as today, which could send the market higher, or an agreement that includes tough reforms and austerity will not be met putting downward pressure on stocks.
Let's check in with the key levels on the S&P 500 Index (SPY) weekly chart below.
The broad market is within a hair's breadth of horizontal resistance. When price comes into an area where prior highs are relatively close (yellow shade) it is just as likely to reverse off one level as it is the other. This precise resistance level uncertainty combined with the fact that this rally is now five and a half weeks old is more than enough reason to avoid putting on new long positions here.
For those holding long positions, don't get greedy. If stocks rally on good European news, use it as an opportunity to lighten up while simultaneously trailing remaining portions with stops. In addition, have a tight list of short plays ready while monitoring broad market reaction to the 137.18 SPY level if price trades up that high. A relief reversal off an important prior high this late in the rally is a nice short setup.
Check out the short video in the upper left corner of the home page at
www.shadowtrader.net for a short at what a couple of other broad market indicators are saying.
Under The Hood
When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.
|Dow Jones Industrial Average||12883.95|| 5.75|| 0.04% |
|S&P 500 Index||1349.96|| 2.91|| 0.22% |
|Nasdaq Composite||2915.86|| 11.78|| 0.41% |
|Nasdaq 100||2545.72|| 13.66|| 0.54% |
|Russell 2000||828.39|| 1.02|| 0.12% |
|Spot Gold||1731.40||-13.73||-0.79% |
|Crude Oil||98.93|| 0.18|| 0.18% |
|NYSE Overall Volume||7,652,400K||n/a|| 5.07%|
|Nasdaq Overall Volume||1,968,045K||n/a|| 11.00%|
|NYSE Breadth||1.42 : 1||positive|
|Nasdaq Breadth||1.84 : 1||positive|
|NYSE Breadth Ratio||58.75|
|Nasdaq Breadth Ratio||64.75|
| Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Thursday || || |
| How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here ||ES ||NQ |
| Value Area High ||1347.00 ||2542.75 |
| Point of Control ||1346.50 ||2533.50 |
| Value Area Low ||1342.00 ||2529.50 |
Pivot points provided by Prodigio RTS. For more information contact: firstname.lastname@example.org
ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores
The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.
Our statistical tracking of the ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores has triggered a short term bearish signal for the broad market as of Wednesday's close.
This indicator has been correct 22 of the last 29 signals as a predictor of a forthcoming short term move by the broad market. An indication is credited as being successful if within three days of the alert, the SPY closes below the closing price of the day the alert was triggered.
Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week: Today- 02/09/2012
Friday - 02/10/2011
07:00 am EST - BOE Announcement
07:45 am EST - ECB Announcement
08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
10:00 am EST - Wholesale Trade
10:30 am EST - EIA Natural Gas Report
Reporting earnings today: ALXN,
Monday - 02/13/2012
08:30 am EST - International Trade
09:55 am EST - Consumer Sentiment
12:30 pm EST - Ben Bernanke Speaks
02:00 pm EST - Treasury Budget
Reporting earnings today: FLIR,
No economic news currently scheduled.
Reporting earnings today: CEG,
Bulls and Bears
This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.
| Symbol ||Trigger Price ||Stop Price ||Notes |
| Symbol ||Trigger Price ||Stop Price ||Notes|
|DBD ||37.00-37.50 ||38.50 ||Coming into 10 month highs |
|EMN ||55.21-55.51 ||57.04 ||Relisted - Please see
Monday's Looking Ahead section |
|MSFT ||31.43-31.73 ||32.50 ||Potential triple top at 1 year highs |
ShadowTrader Model Portfolio
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Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.
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