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ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader $SPY $TRMB #trading #stocks

 

 



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The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

 

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

 

Good morning traders. Let's go right to the chart and commentary below.

As Danno from the swing trading desk stated in the video posted yesterday on the shadowtrader.net homepage, the Sector Trend Score Matrix is giving a signal that the market may be getting tired here. Above is a picture of the /ES market profile that has been developing over the last few days.

As written in the annotations on the chart, the market keeps moving higher and higher but there are structural cracks under the surface that should be noted. In the earlier stages of a rally the value moves higher but it has periods where it doesn't touch the value area below it. It's clear that this no longer the case. Value (in the black bracketed sections) is clearly moving higher, but it also has higher rate of overlap. This is generally a sign of a rally in later stages. Makes sense since we are continuing to advance but getting very close to the resistance in the S&P cash.

A symmetrical (or normal, primary day) profile should look like a nice bell curve with fatness only in the middle and tails on either end. When it fails to make the tails on one end, like yesterday, there is often a move that is called "repair" where the market trades through where the tail should have been and "completes the picture". So, there could be a bullish move early Friday that may be short lived. Use information like what is presented here to create a "narrative" and go through some different scenarios before the market opens. Plan accordingly for every type of action.

 

Under The Hood

 

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12890.46 6.51 0.05%
S&P 500 Index 1351.95 1.99 0.15%
Nasdaq Composite 2927.23 11.37 0.39%
Nasdaq 100 2563.93 18.21 0.72%
Russell 2000 824.99 -3.40 -0.41%
Spot Gold 1729.50 -1.90 -0.11%
Crude Oil 99.72 0.79 0.80%
NYSE Overall Volume 7,590,520K n/a -0.81%
Nasdaq Overall Volume 2,141,650K n/a 8.82%
NYSE Breadth 1.16 : 1 positive  
Nasdaq Breadth 1.11 : 1 positive  
NYSE Breadth Ratio 53.69    
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio 52.58    
NYSE Advancers/Decliners 40    
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners -271    
NYSE Trin 0.89    
Nasdaq Trin 0.73    
$VIX 18.63 0.47  
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Friday    
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1350.75 2564.75
Point of Control 1349.00 2561.00
Value Area Low 1345.50 2548.25
R3 1362.92 2598.33
R2 1357.08 2581.67
R1 1352.67 2571.33
Pivot 1346.83 2554.67
S1 1342.42 2544.33
S2 1336.58 2527.67
S3 1332.17 2517.33

Pivot points provided by Prodigio RTS. For more information contact: prodigio@thinkorswim.com
 

ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

 

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


The short term bearish signal derived from our statistical tracking of the ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores is active until Monday's close.

With the sideways price action of the broad market this week, only XNG is stretched to the upside with 7 higher consecutive closes. Meanwhile $DJUSIT, $DJUSRE, and $DJUSRR have all traded lower each of the last four days.

 

Heads Up

 

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 02/10/2011

08:30 am EST - International Trade
09:55 am EST - Consumer Sentiment
12:30 pm EST - Ben Bernanke Speaks
02:00 pm EST - Treasury Budget
Reporting earnings today: FLIR, LH, LYB, MT, NYX, PPL


Monday - 02/13/2012

No economic news currently scheduled.
Reporting earnings today: CEG, DFG, ECL, FIS, ICON, PAAS, RAX, TEVA, TV


Tuesday- 02/14/2012

08:30 am EST - Retail Sales
08:30 am EST - Import and Export Prices
10:00 am EST - Business Inventories
Reporting earnings today: ACC, BWA, FOSL, FTI, HCP, HSP, KORS, MET, MMC, OMC, SKT, TLEO, UTHR, VAL, WPI, WTW

 

Bulls and Bears

 

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
DBD 37.00-37.50 38.50 Relisted - Coming into 10 month highs
EMN 55.21-55.51 57.04 Relisted - Please see Monday's Looking Ahead section
MSFT 31.43-31.73 32.50 Relisted - Potential triple top at 1 year highs
TRMB 52.25-52.75 54.05 Approaching 52 week highs
 

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

 

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 02/06/12 - 02/10/12
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
HLF long 75 02/03 58.50 n/a n/a 62.00 59.00 open 59.64 1.14 $86.00 $4,388
  Bottoming tail price bar on the daily chart
LMT short 150 02/03 87.50 n/a n/a 83.00 90.50 open 88.01 (0.51) ($77.00) $13,125
  Shorted at 10 month highs
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 02/06/12 - 02/10/12
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
DELL short 600 02/01 17.41 02/07 17.90 16.50 17.90 closed n/a (0.49) ($294) $10,446
  Exited trade as broad market persisted to the upside
HLF long 75 02/03 58.50 02/08 59.90 62.00 59.00 closed n/a 1.40 $105 $4,388
  Sold half position for 1.40 gain
CRR long 75 02/08 90.30 02/08 91.00 120.00 83.60 closed n/a 0.70 $53 $6,773
  Scratched trade on negative news release shortly after entry
TOTALS: 225 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $17,513

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008
 

All content © 2012 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

 

 

 

 

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 2/9/2012 8:00:33 PM | 0 Comments