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ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 02.13.12 $JOY $CTSH $ISRG #stocks #trading #investing
Swing Trader


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The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Good morning traders. As an add on to Peter's video analysis of Friday's broad market price action, which can be accessed in the ShadowTrader Weekend Update, the chart below provides another interesting clue for the probable short term price direction of stocks.

In spite of the broad market's largest daily close lower so far this year, money flow (blue line) was positive by a healthy measure on Friday. Additionally, block trades recorded a higher positive ratio in a majority of sectors on the same day. All of this supports the theory that big players used Friday's weakness as an opportunity to buy stocks in anticipation of higher prices.

If we combine this information with the broad markets measurement of being close to oversold conditions as discussed in ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score section below, we wouldn't be surprised to see the market trade back higher early this week, if not today.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average12801.23-89.23-0.69%
S&P 500 Index1342.64-9.31-0.69%
Nasdaq Composite2903.88-23.35-0.80%
Nasdaq 1002547.32-16.61-0.65%
Russell 2000813.33-12.14-1.47%
Spot Gold1723.10-6.40-0.37%
Crude Oil98.67-1.05-1.05%
NYSE Overall Volume7,503,770Kn/a-1.14%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,771,014Kn/a-17.31%
NYSE Breadth4.11 : 1negative
Nasdaq Breadth3.32 : 1negative
NYSE Breadth Ratio19.58
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio23.14
NYSE Advancers/Decliners-1558
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners-1226
NYSE Trin1.33
Nasdaq Trin1.16
$VIX20.792.16
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Monday  
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1338.50 2546.25
Point of Control 1336.00 2541.75
Value Area Low 1335.50 2538.00
R3 1349.082570.75
R2 1344.672561.00
R1 1342.582554.75
Pivot 1338.172545.00
S1 1336.082538.75
S2 1331.672529.00
S3 1329.582522.75

Pivot points provided by Prodigio RTS. For more information contact: prodigio@thinkorswim.com

ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


All 25 ShadowTrader Sectors traded lower on Friday. Three of them have closed lower for the last five consecutive days including $DJUSIT, $DJUSRE, and $DJUSRR. Two others, OSX and BTK, have ended lower the last four days. Another broad based day lower will bring major U.S. indices close to "oversold" by our measure.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 02/13/2012

No economic news currently scheduled.
Reporting earnings today: CEG, DFG, ECL, FIS, ICON, PAAS, RAX, TEVA, TV


Tuesday- 02/14/2012

08:30 am EST - Retail Sales
08:30 am EST - Import and Export Prices
10:00 am EST - Business Inventories
Reporting earnings today: ACC, ACGL, ACIW, BWA, FOSL, FTI, HCP, HSP, KORS, MASI, MET, MMC, OMC, SKT, UTHR, VAL, WPI, WTW


Wednesday - 02/15/2012

08:30 am EST - Empire State Mfg Survey
09:00 am EST - Treasury International Capital
09.15 am EST - Industiral Production
10:00 am EST - Housing Market Index
10:30 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
02:00 pm EST - FOMC Minutes
Reporting earnings today: A, AEM, ANF, BCSI, CBS, CF, CLF, CMCSA, CTL, CVE, DE, DPS, DVN, EQIX, ETE, ETP, GG, GGC, HBI, HSIC, HTS, ITRI, MAR, NETL, NILE, NTAP, NTES, OC, OII, PCG, TEX, TSLA, VMC, XEC



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
JOY 82.30-81.90 78.76 Please see ShadowTrader Weekend Update
CTSH 66.50-66.00 64.50 Coming into trendline from 08/11 lows
ISRG 495.75 485.00 Consolidation breakout play

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
EMN 55.21-55.51 57.04 Relisted - Please see Monday's Looking Ahead section
MSFT 31.43-31.73 32.50 Relisted - Potential triple top at 1 year highs
TRMB 52.25-52.75 54.05 Approaching 52 week highs

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 02/13/12 - 02/17/12
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
LMTshort 15002/0387.50 n/a n/a 83.0090.50 open 87.51(0.01)($2)$13,125
  Shorted at 10 month highs
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 02/13/12 - 02/17/12
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
TOTALS: 150 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $13,125

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2012 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 2/12/2012 5:58:26 PM | 0 Comments