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ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 02.15.12 $ADTN $SPY #stocks #trading



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The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

 

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

 

Good morning traders. Please review the Heads Up section below as a number of market moving events are scheduled over the next three days.

With regard to the broad market, bullish resiliency cannot be ignored. We will continue to give more weight to the possibility of a near term move higher at least until the S&P 500 Index reaches 2011 highs.

We have listed Adtran, Inc. (ADTN) as a long trade idea in today's Bulls and Bears section. Please observe the chart below.

The long setup in ADTN is pretty straight forward. The stock has spent the last five days consolidating after the most recent step up in price. On a move higher out of consolidation, our alert at 37.83 will be triggered. The tight consolidation allows for a relatively close stop loss at 36.63.

There is limited resistance between the entry and the prior high at 42.57 which is the ultimate price target. With these parameters, the trade has an approximate 4 : 1 reward to risk ratio.

 

Under The Hood

 

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12878.28 4.24 0.03%
S&P 500 Index 1350.50 -1.27 -0.09%
Nasdaq Composite 2931.83 0.44 0.02%
Nasdaq 100 2575.24 5.75 0.22%
Russell 2000 820.65 -4.16 -0.50%
Spot Gold 1721.90 -0.20 -0.01%
Crude Oil 101.27 0.36 0.36%
NYSE Overall Volume 7,435,250K n/a 8.92%
Nasdaq Overall Volume 2,095,377K n/a 30.60%
NYSE Breadth 1.78 : 1 negative  
Nasdaq Breadth 1.02 : 1 positive  
NYSE Breadth Ratio 35.92    
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio 50.52    
NYSE Advancers/Decliners -816    
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners -603    
NYSE Trin 1.02    
Nasdaq Trin 0.60    
$VIX 19.54 0.50  
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Wednesday    
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1345.75 2567.25
Point of Control 1345.00 2561.25
Value Area Low 1341.00 2557.75
R3 1361.50 2604.25
R2 1354.75 2589.50
R1 1351.25 2582.75
Pivot 1344.50 2568.00
S1 1341.00 2561.25
S2 1334.25 2546.50
S3 1330.75 2539.75

Pivot points provided by Prodigio RTS. For more information contact: prodigio@thinkorswim.com
 

ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

 

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


19 of 25 ShadowTrader Sectors closed lower yesterday. There are no sectors currently stretched to an extreme number of consecutive days higher or lower. This means the broad market could run for for several days in either direction before hitting an overbought or oversold measure.

 

Heads Up

 

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 02/15/2012

08:30 am EST - Empire State Mfg Survey
09:00 am EST - Treasury International Capital
09.15 am EST - Industiral Production
10:00 am EST - Housing Market Index
10:30 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
02:00 pm EST - FOMC Minutes
Reporting earnings today: A, AEM, ANF, BCSI, CBS, CF, CLF, CMCSA, CTL, CVE, DE, DPS, DVN, EQIX, ETE, ETP, GG, GGC, HBI, HSIC, HTS, ITRI, MAR, NETL, NILE, NTAP, NTES, OC, OII, PCG, TEX, TSLA, VMC, XEC


Thursday - 02/16/2012

08:30 am EST - Housing Starts
08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
08:30 am EST - Producer Price Index
09:00 am EST - Ben Bernanke Speaks
10:00 am EST - Philadelphia Fed Survey
Reporting earnings today: AAP, ABX, ACOR, APA, ARUN, BIDU, BMRN, DISCA, DTE, DTV, DUK, DVA, GM, GNC, HCN, HOS, JWN, MDRX, OGE, OIS, PGN, PWE, QLIK, ROVI, SNH, SPW, TAP, TRW, UPL, VCI, VFC, WM, WOOF, WRE, XRAY


Friday - 02/17/2012

08:30 am EST - CPI and Core CPI
10:00 am EST - Leading Indicators
Reporting earnings today: ABB, AGP, CPB, DLR, EOG, HMSY, HNZ, TOT, VTR

 

Bulls and Bears

 

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
ADTN 37.83 36.63 Anticipating upside move from consolidation

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
MJN 77.00-78.00 79.75 Approaching 52 week highs
HAR 52.00-53.00 54.05 Reversal play at 52 week highs
 

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

 

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 02/13/12 - 02/17/12
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 02/13/12 - 02/17/12
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
LMT short 150 02/03 87.50 02/13 87.95 83.00 90.50 closed n/a (0.45) ($68) $13,125
  Exited trade as stock showed no signs of following through lower
SCCO long 425 02/14 32.66 02/14 31.91 37.27 31.50 closed n/a (0.75) ($319) $13,881
  Cut trade on follow through below ascending trendline
TOTALS: 0 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $0.00

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008
 

All content ? 2012 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 2/15/2012 12:15:04 AM | 0 Comments