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ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 02.21.12 $SPY $HAR #stocks #trading
Swing Trader


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The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Good morning traders. With the S&P 500 Index approaching the first touch of May 2011 highs, we are monitoring individual stocks with similar patterns to exploit a reversal off prior highs. One stock listed in today's Bulls and Bears is a good example of such a set up. Please observe the chart of Harman International Industries, Inc. (HAR) below.

We have highlighted the bullish swing pattern of HAR in yellow which began in early October 2011. The second leg up of this move is getting quite "long in the tooth" as eight of the last nine weekly closes have been higher.

Even if HAR is destined for higher prices in the future, it is due for a pullback. Overhead resistance at the 52 week highs (magenta line) provides a point where the stock has a high probability of reversing and is the level where we will feel comfortable shorting the stock.

Please see today's Bulls and Bears section for the exact trade parameters.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average12949.87 45.79 0.35%
S&P 500 Index1361.23 3.19 0.23%
Nasdaq Composite2951.78-9.60-0.33%
Nasdaq 1002584.24-8.05-0.31%
Russell 2000828.68-1.28-0.15%
Spot Gold1728.80-5.30-0.31%
Crude Oil102.47-2.45-2.34%
NYSE Overall Volume8,973,100Kn/a 11.38%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,987,147Kn/a 3.43%
NYSE Breadth1.26 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth1.30 : 1negative
NYSE Breadth Ratio55.69
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio43.50
NYSE Advancers/Decliners434
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners36
NYSE Trin1.08
Nasdaq Trin1.34
$VIX17.78-1.44
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Tuesday  
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1360.25 2590.25
Point of Control 1359.50 2586.00
Value Area Low 1357.00 2581.00
R3 1368.582614.92
R2 1364.922604.33
R1 1362.332593.17
Pivot 1358.672582.58
S1 1356.082571.42
S2 1352.422560.83
S3 1349.832549.67

The /ES and /NQ pivot points and value area numbers above are based on Friday's trade. The Prodigio RTS pivot points are not pictured today, but will return with tomorrow's issue.

ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Our statistical tracking of the ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores has triggered a short term bearish signal for the broad market as of Friday's close.

This indicator has been correct 23 of the last 30 signals as a predictor of a forthcoming short term move by the broad market. An indication is credited as being successful if within three days of the alert, the SPY closes below the closing price of the day the alert was triggered.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 02/21/2012

No economic data scheduled for release
Reporting earnings today: ACTG, CAKE, CHK, CYH, EXPD, EXR, GPC, HD, HLF, INTU, KFT, M, MDT, MHS, MYL, NBR, NFX, ROC, RRC, WLT, WMT


Wednesday - 02/22/2012

10:00 am EST - Existing Home Sales
Reporting earnings today: ADI, AVGO, CLR, CNK, CXO, DLTR, ESRX, EV, FLR, GAS, GRMN, HPQ, HPT, LAMR, LBTYA, LHO, LTD, MGA, OAS, ONXX, PAAS, PPO, PWR, QCOR, QEP, SGY, SM, SNP,S TJX, TOL, TX, WLL, WMB


Thursday - 02/23/2012

08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
10:00 am EST - FHFA House Price Index
10:30 am EST - EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
Reporting earnings today: ADSK, AEE, AIG, AMT, BBG, BRY, CBI, CDE, CMS, CRM, CROX, DECK, DISH, ESV, FSLR, FWLT, GPS, HLS, HRL, IDCC, IMAX, IRM, KBR, KSS, LINE, MCP, MHK, MNST, MOH, NIHD, OCR, PDCO, PEG, PSA, PXP, SBAC, SPN, SWY, TGT, TS, VNO, WR, WTI



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
BEAV 46.85 45.10 Stock in consolidation phase, looking for breakout
LH 86.40-85.90 84.30 Please see the ShadowTrader Weekend Update

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
HAR 53.00-54.00 55.75 Please see today's Looking Ahead section

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 02/20/12 - 02/24/12
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 02/20/12 - 02/24/12
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
TOTALS: 0 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $0.00

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content ? 2012 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 2/20/2012 8:55:17 PM | 1 Comment