ShadowTrader Swing Trader
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ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 02.21.12 $SPY $HAR #stocks #trading
ShadowTrader Swing Trader |
2/20/2012 8:55:17 PM
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The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.
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Swing Trader User's Guide
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Good morning traders. With the S&P 500 Index approaching the first touch of May 2011 highs, we are monitoring individual stocks with similar patterns to exploit a reversal off prior highs. One stock listed in today's Bulls and Bears is a good example of such a set up. Please observe the chart of Harman International Industries, Inc. (HAR) below.
We have highlighted the bullish swing pattern of HAR in yellow which began in early October 2011. The second leg up of this move is getting quite "long in the tooth" as eight of the last nine weekly closes have been higher.
Even if HAR is destined for higher prices in the future, it is due for a pullback. Overhead resistance at the 52 week highs (magenta line) provides a point where the stock has a high probability of reversing and is the level where we will feel comfortable shorting the stock.
Please see today's Bulls and Bears section for the exact trade parameters.
Under The Hood
When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.
|Dow Jones Industrial Average||12949.87|| 45.79|| 0.35% |
|S&P 500 Index||1361.23|| 3.19|| 0.23% |
|Nasdaq Composite||2951.78||-9.60||-0.33% |
|Nasdaq 100||2584.24||-8.05||-0.31% |
|Russell 2000||828.68||-1.28||-0.15% |
|Spot Gold||1728.80||-5.30||-0.31% |
|Crude Oil||102.47||-2.45||-2.34% |
|NYSE Overall Volume||8,973,100K||n/a|| 11.38%|
|Nasdaq Overall Volume||1,987,147K||n/a|| 3.43%|
|NYSE Breadth||1.26 : 1||positive|
|Nasdaq Breadth||1.30 : 1||negative|
|NYSE Breadth Ratio||55.69|
|Nasdaq Breadth Ratio||43.50|
| Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Tuesday || || |
| How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here ||ES ||NQ |
| Value Area High ||1360.25 ||2590.25 |
| Point of Control ||1359.50 ||2586.00 |
| Value Area Low ||1357.00 ||2581.00 |
The /ES and /NQ pivot points and value area numbers above are based on Friday's trade. The Prodigio RTS pivot points are not pictured today, but will return with tomorrow's issue.
ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores
The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.
Our statistical tracking of the ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores has triggered a short term bearish signal for the broad market as of Friday's close.
This indicator has been correct 23 of the last 30 signals as a predictor of a forthcoming short term move by the broad market. An indication is credited as being successful if within three days of the alert, the SPY closes below the closing price of the day the alert was triggered.
Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week: Today - 02/21/2012
Wednesday - 02/22/2012
No economic data scheduled for release
Reporting earnings today: ACTG,
Thursday - 02/23/2012
10:00 am EST - Existing Home Sales
Reporting earnings today: ADI,
08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
10:00 am EST - FHFA House Price Index
10:30 am EST - EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
Reporting earnings today: ADSK,
Bulls and Bears
This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.
| Symbol ||Trigger Price ||Stop Price ||Notes |
|BEAV ||46.85 ||45.10 ||Stock in consolidation phase, looking for breakout |
|LH ||86.40-85.90 ||84.30 ||Please see the
ShadowTrader Weekend Update |
| Symbol ||Trigger Price ||Stop Price ||Notes|
|HAR ||53.00-54.00 ||55.75 ||Please see today's Looking Ahead section |
ShadowTrader Model Portfolio
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Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.
Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.