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ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 02.23.12 $DJUSSW $MSFT #stocks #trading



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The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

 

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

 

Good morning traders. In the February 9th issue of the ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader we listed Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) as a short trade idea in the Bulls and Bears section. The stock has traded within the short entry range during the past three days, but it is not too far below the entry range for late comers to consider taking a position. MSFT is a key component of the Software Index ($DJUSSW) which looks ready to give back some of this year's gains.

Please observe the chart below.

 

 

$DJUSSW is in the midst of a bullish swing pattern of higher- highs and a higher low highlighted by the blue circles on the chart above. The current leg higher has resulted in six of seven higher weekly closes. But so far this week, price has exhibited difficulties in following through higher just above 2011 highs (black dashed line). The orange circles illustrate the current lower level of on-balance volume (OBV) versus the two previous times price was at current levels.

All of these current weekly chart characteristics suggest a higher probability of price decline in the near future. As we stated above, a short of MSFT is one way to participate in a related trade. Other stocks in the software arena include: ADBE, ADP, ADSK, ANSS, ARBA, BCSI, BMC, CA, CHKP, CNQR, CRM, CTSH, CTXS, DOX, DRIV, EBIX, FIRE, INFA, INFY, INTU, IRM, LFT, MSCI, NTES, ORCL, PMTC, PWRD, QSFT, RAX, RHT, ROVI, SAP, SFSF, SINA, SNPS, VMW and VRSN.

Be sure to check out the ShadowTrader Home Page for a quick video on the most recent broad market money flow data.

 

Under The Hood

 

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12938.67 -27.02 -0.21%
S&P 500 Index 1357.66 -4.55 -0.33%
Nasdaq Composite 2933.17 -15.40 -0.52%
Nasdaq 100 2579.78 -10.46 -0.40%
Russell 2000 816.50 -6.72 -0.82%
Spot Gold 1774.60 16.80 0.96%
Crude Oil 105.91 -0.04 -0.04%
NYSE Overall Volume 7,290,350K n/a -8.64%
Nasdaq Overall Volume 1,690,309K n/a -6.28%
NYSE Breadth 1.95 : 1 negative  
Nasdaq Breadth 2.81 : 1 negative  
NYSE Breadth Ratio 33.94    
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio 26.21    
NYSE Advancers/Decliners -649    
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners -861    
NYSE Trin 1.26    
Nasdaq Trin 1.39    
$VIX 18.19 0  
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Thursday    
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1358.75 2586.00
Point of Control 1357.50 2578.50
Value Area Low 1355.00 2577.00
R3 1367.92 2607.58
R2 1364.33 2600.42
R1 1360.17 2589.58
Pivot 1356.58 2582.42
S1 1352.42 2571.58
S2 1348.83 2564.42
S3 1344.67 2553.58

Due to technical updates, Prodigio RTS pivot points are not pictured today. Prodigio pivot points will return very soon.
 

ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

 

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


ShadowTrader Sector breadth was bearish yesterday with only 5 of 25 sectors closing higher. The broad market could move lower for two more days before reaching oversold conditions by our measure.

 

Heads Up

 

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 02/23/2012

08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
10:00 am EST - FHFA House Price Index
10:30 am EST - EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
Reporting earnings today: ADSK, AEE, AIG, AMT, BBG, BRY, CBI, CDE, CMS, CRM, CROX, DECK, DISH, ESV, FSLR, FWLT, GPS, HLS, HRL, IDCC, IMAX, IRM, KBR, KSS, LINE, MCP, MHK, MNST, MOH, NIHD, OCR, PDCO, PEG, PSA, PXP, SBAC, SPN, SWY, TGT, TS, VNO, WR, WTI


Friday - 02/24/2012

09:55 am EST - Consumer Sentiment
10:00 am EST - New Home Sales
Reporting earnings today: ANR, AWK, DDS, ENDP, JCP, NEM, NU, PNW, POM, VALE, YOKU


Monday - 02/27/2012

10:00 am EST - Pending Home Sales Index
10:30 am EST - Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Reporting earnings today: ANV, ATLS, BID, CRI, CVI, GXP, HXM , JAZZ, LOW, NOG, PCLN, SINA, SLW, SLXP, SWN, UHS, URS, VRX

 

Bulls and Bears

 

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
BEAV 46.85 45.10 Stock in consolidation phase, looking for breakout
LH 86.40-85.90 84.30 Please see the ShadowTrader Weekend Update
CRM 125.00 121.00 Approaching trendline support
ATI 42.70-42.30 40.90 Potential triple bottom

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
HAR 53.00-54.00 55.75 Please see Tuesday's ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader
BRCM 38.75-39.00 40.10 Coming into 52 week highs
INTC 28.00-29.00 29.75 Short play entry at multi year highs
 

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

 

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 02/20/12 - 02/24/12
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 02/20/12 - 02/24/12
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
TOTALS: 0 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $0.00

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008
 

All content ? 2012 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 2/22/2012 10:52:49 PM | 0 Comments