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ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 02.24.12 $RUT $NDX #stocks #trading
Swing Trader


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The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Good morning traders. Of the four major U.S. stock indices, the most technically compelling chart for a near term bullish trade is the Russell 2000 Index (RUT). Let's take a look at the weekly chart below.

Unlike the S&P 500 index (SPY) or the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DIA) which are exhibiting less reliable behavior at prior high resistance, the RUT actually offers a tradable long entry point just over consolidation formed during the last three weeks (magenta lines). The index has approximately 4.20% left to the upside until reaching prior highs (blue line, 868.57).

The NASDAQ 100 may be tempting to some given its current momentum and consolidation over the past four days, however, the weekly chart below illustrates how the index has stretched higher each of the last eight weeks and will end this week with less volume. Caution should be exercised here.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average12984.69 46.02 0.36%
S&P 500 Index1363.46 5.80 0.43%
Nasdaq Composite2956.98 23.81 0.81%
Nasdaq 1002594.93 15.15 0.59%
Russell 2000829.23 12.73 1.56%
Spot Gold1777.80 3.20 0.18%
Crude Oil108.54 2.63 2.48%
NYSE Overall Volume7,628,960Kn/a 4.64%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,734,651Kn/a 2.62%
NYSE Breadth2.36 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth2.65 : 1positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio70.24
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio72.62
NYSE Advancers/Decliners1321
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners1083
NYSE Trin1.09
Nasdaq Trin0.93
$VIX16.8 -1.39
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Friday  
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1363.00 2597.75
Point of Control 1359.25 2596.00
Value Area Low 1355.75 2584.00
R3 1379.582639.42
R2 1371.172619.08
R1 1367.082609.92
Pivot 1358.672589.58
S1 1354.582580.42
S2 1346.172560.08
S3 1342.082550.92

Due to technical updates, Prodigio RTS pivot points are not pictured today. Prodigio pivot points will return very soon.

ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


ShadowTrader Sector breadth reversed back to the bullish side Thursday. 22 sectors closed higher while just 3 ended lower. The only notable statistic among the twenty five sectors is five consecutive higher closes by OSX.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 02/24/2012

09:55 am EST - Consumer Sentiment
10:00 am EST - New Home Sales
Reporting earnings today: ANR, AWK, DDS, ENDP, JCP, NEM, NU, PNW, POM, VALE, YOKU


Monday - 02/27/2012

10:00 am EST - Pending Home Sales Index
10:30 am EST - Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Reporting earnings today: ANV, ATLS, BID, CRI, CVI, GXP, HXM , JAZZ, LOW, NOG, PCLN, SINA, SLW, SLXP, SWN, UHS, URS, VRX


Tuesday - 02/28/2012

08:30 am EST - Durable Goods Orders
09:00 am EST - S&P Case-Shiller HPI
10:00 am EST - Consumer Confidence
Reporting earnings today: BMO, CRZO, ECL, EP, FE, GTLS, HFC, PANL, RDC, RIG, ROSE, SRE, VPHM, WTR



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
BEAV 46.85 45.10 Stock in consolidation phase, looking for breakout
LH 86.40-85.90 84.30 Please see the ShadowTrader Weekend Update
ATI 42.70-42.30 40.90 Potential triple bottom

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
HAR 53.00-54.00 55.75 Please see Tuesday's ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader
INTC 28.00-29.00 29.75 Short play entry at multi year highs
EMN 55.21-55.51 56.75 Approaching 52 week highs

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 02/20/12 - 02/24/12
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 02/20/12 - 02/24/12
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
TOTALS: 0 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $0.00

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content ? 2012 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 2/23/2012 10:08:59 PM | 0 Comments