ShadowTrader Swing Trader rss
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 05.23.13
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Bullish - Fifth consecutive bullish monthly bar close with higher high.

WEEKLY - Bullish - Fourth straight week with large body candle.

DAILY - Bearish - Expansion of range taking out multiple lows. Target 1637.

Good morning traders. Please observe the chart below for key S&P 500 Index (SPY) support levels.

If SPY follows through lower, we will be looking for a reversal off the 38.2% level, of the Fibonacci Retracement study, drawn from the low on 04/18 to the high on 05/22. The blue oval highlights the recent four day consolidation which corresponds 38.2% Fibonacci level while the 20 day moving average (green line) provides further technical support aroound 163.14.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average15307.17-80.41-0.52%
S&P 500 Index1655.35-13.81-0.83%
Nasdaq Composite3463.29-38.82-1.11%
Nasdaq 1002999.12-27.32-0.90%
Russell 2000982.25-16.52-1.65%
Spot Gold1366.27-12.41-0.90%
Crude Oil94.06-1.77-1.85%
NYSE Overall Volume4,315,841Kn/a 23.98%
Nasdaq Overall Volume2,160,169Kn/a 22.18%
NYSE Breadth3.55 : 1negative
Nasdaq Breadth3.76 : 1negative
NYSE Breadth Ratio21.98
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio21.03
NYSE Advancers/Decliners-1718
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners-1182
NYSE Trin0.98
Nasdaq Trin1.30
$VIX13.820.45
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Thursday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1685.75 3052.75
Point of Control 1677.25 3034.00
Value Area Low 1658.25 3003.25
R3 1717.923111.50
R2 1701.833082.50
R1 1678.673041.75
Pivot 1662.583012.75
S1 1639.422972.00
S2 1623.332943.00
S3 1600.172902.25


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Twenty two of twenty five ShadowTrader Sectors closed lower on Wednesday. The three sectors that closed higher were $DJSINS. DRG, and GOX. XAL closed lower for the fifth consecutive day bringing it into oversold territory.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 05/23/2013

08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
08:58 am EST - PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
10:00 am EST - New Home Sales
Reporting earnings today: AAP, ALKS, CRM, DLTR, GME, GPS, HRL, PDCO, RL, ROST, SHLD, SIG, WSM


Friday - 05/24/2013

08:30 am EST - Durable Goods Orders
Reporting earnings today: ANF, AZO, FL


Monday - 05/27/2013

U.S. Holiday: Memorial Day - Bond and Equity Markets Closed.
Reporting earnings today: BIG, FMCN, HNZ, MBT, TY, TTM



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
FRX 36.00 35.00 Looking for reversal off ascending trendline
FDO 62.00 60.00 Approaching ascending trendline support
MCD 98.45 96.45 Coming into trendline support and 50 day moving average

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
HUM 82.00-82.50 85.60 Potential reversal play at 52 week highs

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 05/20/13 - 05/24/13
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
CNWshort 25005/2038.40 n/a n/a 34.5040.50 open 38.57(0.17)($43)$9,600
  Shorted near 52 week highs
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 05/20/13 - 05/24/13
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
SPYshort 10005/14164.9005/22168.00160.00168.00closed n/a(3.10)($310)$16,490
  Stop triggered
TOTALS: 250 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $9,600

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content ? 2013 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 5/22/2013 10:44:11 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - Stop triggered

May 22, 2013

Stock: SPY S&P SPDR
Action: Stop triggered
Shares: 100
Entry: 164.90
Stop: 168.00
Target: N/A

Trade Explanation: Our stop for SPY short was triggered at $168 and we are now flat the stock.


ShadowTraderPro

Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled, we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.

*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors.****
 

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 5/22/2013 10:06:40 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 05.22.13

 

 

 

 

 

 



You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

 

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

 

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

 

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Bullish - Fifth consecutive bullish monthly bar close with higher high.

WEEKLY - Bullish - Fourth straight week with large body candle.

DAILY - Neutral - New high again with flat close.

Good morning traders. The Equity Put Call Ratio (EPCR) is currently at an extreme low. This can be thought of as an indication of a pending reversal for the broad stock market (SPY). Over the past year, the EPCR has been a more productive tool for bulls than bears as we have illustrated on the chart below..

In an unscientific approach to investigating the performance of the EPCR as an indicator, we circled the eight most extreme bullish (green circles) and bearish (red circles) signals. We then observed the subsequent price direction of the SPY. Favorable results were marked with a "thumbs up", unfavorable results were marked with a "thumbs down".

The results showed six successful bullish signals out of eight, but only three successful bearish signals out of eight.

There are a number of conclusions that can be drawn from this, but the two most important observations we see are; (1) timing indicators, such as this, are much less useful in trending markets, particularly those signals that conflict with the predominate trend; (2) the strength of the predominate trend can be confirmed by more frequent violations of indications contrary to the trend. Concerning today's market, five out of five bearish indications have failed since December. This speaks to the strength of the current rally which translates to the difficulty of timing a reversal or pullback.

 

Under The Hood

 

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15387.58 52.30 0.34%
S&P 500 Index 1669.16 2.87 0.17%
Nasdaq Composite 3502.12 5.69 0.16%
Nasdaq 100 3026.45 5.47 0.18%
Russell 2000 998.78 0.80 0.08%
Spot Gold 1378.68 -8.54 -0.62%
Crude Oil 95.83 -0.74 -0.77%
NYSE Overall Volume 3,481,215K n/a 6.61%
Nasdaq Overall Volume 1,768,022K n/a 2.08%
NYSE Breadth 1.18 : 1 positive  
Nasdaq Breadth 1.5 : 1 positive  
NYSE Breadth Ratio 54.12    
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio 59.99    
NYSE Advancers/Decliners 261    
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners 109    
NYSE Trin 1.01    
Nasdaq Trin 0.73    
$VIX 13.37 0.35  
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Wednesday    
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1671.25 3032.50
Point of Control 1668.00 3026.50
Value Area Low 1665.50 3020.00
R3 1685.75 3062.25
R2 1679.50 3049.50
R1 1672.50 3035.50
Pivot 1666.25 3022.75
S1 1659.25 3008.75
S2 1653.00 2996.00
S3 1646.00 2982.00


 

 

ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

 

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


ShadowTrader Sector breadth closed mix for the second straight day on Tuesday. Thirteen closed higher while twelve ended lower. No sectors are overbought or oversold by our measure at this juncture.

 

Heads Up

 

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 05/22/2013

10:00 am EST - Existing Home Sales
10:00 am EST - Ben Bernanke Speaks
10:30 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
02:00 pm EST - FOMC Minutes
Reporting earnings today: CPB, GES, PVH, URBN


Thursday - 05/23/2013

08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
08:58 am EST - PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
10:00 am EST - New Home Sales
Reporting earnings today: AAP, ALKS, CRM, DLTR, GME, GPS, HRL, PDCO, RL, ROST, SHLD, SIG, WSM


Friday - 05/24/2013

08:30 am EST - Durable Goods Orders
Reporting earnings today: ANF, AZO, FL


 

 

Bulls and Bears

 

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None      

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None      
 

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

 

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 05/20/13 - 05/24/13
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
SPY short 100 05/14 164.90 n/a n/a 160.00 168.00 open 167.17 (2.27) ($227) $16,490
  Shorted at top of ascending channel on daily chart
CNW short 250 05/20 38.40 n/a n/a 34.50 40.50 open 39.55 (1.15) ($288) $9,600
  Shorted near 52 week highs
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 05/20/13 - 05/24/13
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None                          
TOTALS: 350 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $26,090

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008
 

All content ? 2013 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 5/21/2013 10:21:22 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 05.21.13
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Bullish - Fifth consecutive bullish monthly bar close with higher high.

WEEKLY - Bullish - Fourth straight week with large body candle.

DAILY - Bullish to Neutral - First reversal bar in some time on daily SPX, with market opening and closing at same area after pushing to new highs. A move below yesterday's low would be the first since the start of May. Overextension from key moving averages continues to be extreme.

Good morning traders. In the May 13th issue of the ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader, we discussed the utility sector's (UTY) pullback into a primary ascending trendline. That trendline has held support to date. Of UTY's component stocks, Consolidated Edison Co. (ED) is showing the most ambition to move back higher. Please observe the chart below.

The blue oval on the chart above highlights the increase in on-balance volume in ED as the stock has begun to rotate back higher. If the stock follows through in coming days, our long entry alert will be triggered just over yesterday's high and the 50 day moving average. In case our analysis of the utility sector and ED is not correct, a protective stop is placed just under the most recent lows at 60.03.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average15335.2800%
S&P 500 Index1666.29-1.18-0.07%
Nasdaq Composite3496.43-2.53-0.07%
Nasdaq 1003020.97-7.98-0.26%
Russell 2000997.97 1.70 0.17%
Spot Gold1387.22 34.58 2.56%
Crude Oil96.57 0.49 0.51%
NYSE Overall Volume3,265,352Kn/a-4.79%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,732,058Kn/a-4.79%
NYSE Breadth1.45 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth1.01 : 1negative
NYSE Breadth Ratio59.11
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio49.65
NYSE Advancers/Decliners425
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners274
NYSE Trin0.92
Nasdaq Trin1.27
$VIX13.02 0.57
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Tuesday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1666.50 3028.00
Point of Control 1665.50 3023.50
Value Area Low 1662.75 3017.25
R3 1679.583054.00
R2 1675.173043.00
R1 1669.833032.00
Pivot 1665.423021.00
S1 1660.083010.00
S2 1655.672999.00
S3 1650.332988.00


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Our statistical tracking of the ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores has triggered a short term bearish signal for the broad market as of Mondays's close.

This indicator has been correct 49 of the last 71 signals as a predictor of a forthcoming short term move by the broad market. An indication is credited as being successful if within three trading days of the alert, the SPY closes below the closing price of the day the alert was triggered.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 05/21/2013

No economic data scheduled for release.
Reporting earnings today: ADI, BBY, DKX, HD, INTU, MDT, NTAP, TDW, TJX


Wednesday - 05/22/2013

10:00 am EST - Existing Home Sales
10:00 am EST - Ben Bernanke Speaks
10:30 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
02:00 pm EST - FOMC Minutes
Reporting earnings today: CPB, GES, PVH, URBN


Thursday - 05/23/2013

08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
08:58 am EST - PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
10:00 am EST - New Home Sales
Reporting earnings today: AAP, ALKS, CRM, DLTR, GME, GPS, HRL, PDCO, RL, ROST, SHLD, SIG, WSM



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
FOSL 110.55 105.40 Looking for breakout from consolidation
ED 61.16 60.03 Please see today's Looking Ahead section

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
VRSN 50.00 52.00 Please see Thursday's ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader
ROK 92.00 93.75 Approaching first test of 52 week high

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 05/20/13 - 05/24/13
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
SPYshort 10005/14164.90 n/a n/a 160.00168.00 open 166.93(2.03)($203)$16,490
  Shorted at top of ascending channel on daily chart
CNWshort 25005/2038.40 n/a n/a 34.5040.50 open 38.340.06$15$9,600
  Shorted near 52 week highs
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 05/20/13 - 05/24/13
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
TOTALS: 350 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $26,090

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content ? 2013 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 5/20/2013 11:15:51 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTrader Pro Swing Advisory - CNW - Short the stock

May 20, 2013

Company: Conway  (CNW)
Action:  Short the stock
Shares: 250
Entry Price: $38.40
Stop Price: $40.50
Target Price: $34.50

Trade Explanation: We are shorting CNW as described in the ST Weekend update.


ShadowTrader

Please note: All posts are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we might choose to repost the trade
the following day along with any modifications.

*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 5/20/2013 1:29:36 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 05.20.13
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Bullish - Fifth consecutive bullish monthly bar close with higher high.

WEEKLY - Bullish - Fourth straight week with large body candle.

DAILY - Bullish - Overextension continues. Month of May has not had a single cross below prior day's low on daily SPX chart.

Good morning traders. Crude oil (USO) looks poised to move higher this week. Please observe the chart below.

The week before last, USO met resistance at the descending trendline (black circle) and began rotating back lower. Early last week, price continued lower before finding interested buyers who moved price back up to the trendline and closed last week's price bar with a bottoming tail (orange arrow).

Based on last week's failed breakdown and the buying that occurred the three weeks prior, there is evidence that USO has enough support under the 20 and 50 day moving averages (green and red lines respectively) to begin exploring higher prices in the near term. If this occurs, we have set an entry alert just over the descending trendline. Our thesis would be proven wrong by an undercut of last week's bottoming tail, so our protective stop is place 0.10 under last week's low.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average15354.40 121.18 0.80%
S&P 500 Index1667.47 17 1.03%
Nasdaq Composite3498.96 33.72 0.97%
Nasdaq 1003028.95 29.61 0.99%
Russell 2000996.27 10.94 1.11%
Spot Gold1352.64-36.17-2.60%
Crude Oil96.08 1.01 1.06%
NYSE Overall Volume3,429,734Kn/a-1.14%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,819,179Kn/a 77.40%
NYSE Breadth4.38 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth3.49 : 1positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio81.40
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio77.74
NYSE Advancers/Decliners1374
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners901
NYSE Trin0.62
Nasdaq Trin0.64
$VIX12.45-0.62
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Monday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1661.50 3018.00
Point of Control 1656.00 3009.50
Value Area Low 1653.25 3006.50
R3 1681.583057.25
R2 1673.673042.75
R1 1668.333032.75
Pivot 1660.423018.25
S1 1655.083008.25
S2 1647.172993.75
S3 1641.832983.75


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


ShadowTrader Sector breadth shifted back to bullish on Friday with twenty two of twenty five sectors closing higher. GOX remains oversold after its seventh consecuctive lower close. The only other noteworthy sector is $DJUSSW which has closed higher four consecutive days.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 05/20/2013

No economic data scheduled for release.
Reporting earnings today: ALKS, BIG, CPB, GES, PVH, URBN, QIHU


Tuesday - 05/21/2013

No economic data scheduled for release.
Reporting earnings today: ADI, BBY, DKX, HD, INTU, MDT, NTAP, TDW, TJX


Wednesday - 05/22/2013

10:00 am EST - Existing Home Sales
10:00 am EST - Ben Bernanke Speaks
10:30 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
02:00 pm EST - FOMC Minutes
Reporting earnings today: CPB, GES, PVH, URBN



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
FOSL 110.55 105.40 Looking for breakout from consolidation
USO 34.40 32.74 Please see today's Looking Ahead section

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
CNW 38.00-38.50 40.50 Please see the ShadowTrader Weekend Update
VRSN 50.00 52.00 Please see Thursday's ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader
ROK 92.00 93.75 Approaching first test of 52 week high

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 05/20/13 - 05/24/13
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
SPYshort 10005/14164.90 n/a n/a 160.00168.00 open 166.94(2.04)($204)$16,490
  Shorted at top of ascending channel on daily chart
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 05/20/13 - 05/24/13
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
TOTALS: 100 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $16,490

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content ? 2013 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 5/19/2013 8:27:46 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 05.17.13
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Bullish - Fifth consecutive bullish monthly bar close with higher high.

WEEKLY - Bullish - Second consecutive higher high, but with danger of overextension to upside now.

DAILY - Bullish - First pullback to close at lows, but market still one timeframing to upside.

Good morning traders. The stocks listed below rose in price on Thursday, but the majority of transactions took place on a down tick. This is an indication that larger shareholders were cutting positions in these stocks which in turn weakens support. This is a good list to scan for short trade setups in preparation for a potential pullback by the broad market.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average15233.22-42.47-0.28%
S&P 500 Index1650.47-8.31-0.50%
Nasdaq Composite3465.24-6.38-0.18%
Nasdaq 1002999.34-3.28-0.11%
Russell 2000985.33-3.19-0.32%
Spot Gold1388.81-0.63-0.05%
Crude Oil95.07 0.89 0.94%
NYSE Overall Volume3,469,435Kn/a 1.09%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,025,458Kn/a-42.82%
NYSE Breadth2.42 : 1negative
Nasdaq Breadth1.11 : 1negative
NYSE Breadth Ratio29.27
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio47.46
NYSE Advancers/Decliners-631
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners-346
NYSE Trin1.58
Nasdaq Trin0.83
$VIX13.070.26
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Friday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1657.50 3012.75
Point of Control 1655.25 3008.00
Value Area Low 1652.25 3003.00
R3 1668.583035.50
R2 1663.673027.25
R1 1655.833012.75
Pivot 1650.923004.50
S1 1643.082990.00
S2 1638.172981.75
S3 1630.332967.25


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


The only ShadowTrader Sector to close higher yesterday was $DJUSSW. The other twenty four sectors ended the day lower, relieving the broad market of some overbought conditions. The other notable in the sector scores is GOX which is now oversold, having closed lower the last six consecutive days.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 05/17/2013

09:55 am EST - Consumer Sentiment
Reporting earnings today: DCI, SSI


Monday - 05/20/2013

No economic data scheduled for release.
Reporting earnings today: ALKS, BIG, CPB, GES, PVH, URBN, QIHU


Tuesday - 05/21/2013

No economic data scheduled for release.
Reporting earnings today: ADI, BBY, DKX, HD, INTU, MDT, NTAP, TDW, TJX



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 05/13/13 - 05/17/13
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
SPYshort 10005/14164.90 n/a n/a 160.00168.00 open 165.34(0.44)($44)$16,490
  Shorted at top of ascending channel on daily chart
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 05/13/13 - 05/17/13
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
TOTALS: 100 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $16,490

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content ? 2013 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 5/16/2013 10:38:55 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 05.16.13
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Bullish - Fifth consecutive bullish monthly bar close with higher high.

WEEKLY - Bullish - Second consecutive higher high, but with danger of overextension to upside now.

DAILY - Bullish - With extreme over extension. SPX has traded ten points through upper channel resistance.

Good morning traders. We have been waiting patiently for semiconductor producer Xilinx, Inc. (XLNX) to trade into the area of prior highs. After a 20 day rally by the PHLX Smiconductor Index (SOX), the stock is now within striking distance of the short entry range. Please observe the chart below.

Unlike SOX which broke out of a trading range to capture higher prices, XLNX is still within its 2013 range with price action that is more "splashy" than trend like.

With the broad market overbought to the upside and the relatively weak performance of XLNX so far this year, we think the stock is a good vehicle to capture gains on a broad market pullback.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average15275.69 60.44 0.40%
S&P 500 Index1658.78 8.44 0.51%
Nasdaq Composite3471.61 9.00 0.26%
Nasdaq 1003002.62 6.57 0.22%
Russell 2000988.53 2.58 0.26%
Spot Gold1389.44-38.94-2.73%
Crude Oil94.18-0.18-0.19%
NYSE Overall Volume3,638,612Kn/a 6.02%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,815,721Kn/a 1.25%
NYSE Breadth2.04 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth1.79 : 1positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio67.12
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio64.22
NYSE Advancers/Decliners289
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners293
NYSE Trin0.59
Nasdaq Trin0.71
$VIX12.810.04
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Thursday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1658.50 3002.25
Point of Control 1655.00 2994.50
Value Area Low 1649.00 2991.00
R3 1676.753031.50
R2 1668.253018.00
R1 1661.253009.50
Pivot 1652.752996.00
S1 1645.752987.50
S2 1637.252974.00
S3 1630.252965.50


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Our statistical tracking of the ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores has triggered a short term bearish signal for the broad market as of Wednesday's close.

This indicator has been correct 48 of the last 70 signals as a predictor of a forthcoming short term move by the broad market. An indication is credited as being successful if within three trading days of the alert, the SPY closes below the closing price of the day the alert was triggered.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 05/16/2013

08:30 am EST - Consumer Price Index
08:30 am EST - Housing Starts
08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
10:00 am EST - Philadelphia Fed Survey
Reporting earnings today: ADSK, FLO, JWN, KSS, SINA, WMT


Friday - 05/17/2013

09:55 am EST - Consumer Sentiment
Reporting earnings today: DCI, SSI


Monday - 05/20/2013

No economic data scheduled for release.
Reporting earnings today: ALKS, BIG, CPB, GES, PVH, URBN, QIHU



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
XLNX 39.00-39.50 40.60 Please see today's Looking Ahead section
VRSN 50.00 52.00 Please see Thursday's ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader
ROK 92.00 93.75 Approaching first test of 52 week high

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 05/13/13 - 05/17/13
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
SPYshort 10005/14164.90 n/a n/a 160.00168.00 open 166.11(1.22)($122)$16,490
  Shorted at top of ascending channel on daily chart
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 05/13/13 - 05/17/13
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
TOTALS: 100 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $16,490

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content ? 2013 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 5/15/2013 10:15:33 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 05.15.13
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Bullish - Fifth consecutive bullish monthly bar close with higher high.

WEEKLY - Bullish - Second consecutive higher high, but with danger of overextension to upside now.

DAILY - Bullish - Bullish with breakout to new highs, however risk of new longs extremely high here as SPX cash closed 53 points above 20 period SMA. Over 40 points is considered over extended.

Good morning traders. The banking sector (BKX) is acting like it wants to be the next leader of the broad market higher. Please observe the chart below.

We note in the Daily Market Outlook (above) that short term risk is high with regard to establishing new long positions. However, after the market is relieved some short term froth, traders may want to track BKX more closely for clues about the markets medium term intentions.

It is important to be aware that BKX has now surpassed the highs of 04/2010 (blue circle) and traded through the 38.2% level of the Fibonacci Retracement level derived from the 02/2007 high to the 03/2009 low (red circles).

What strikes us as bullish about the chart above is the very health base BKX has formed since the 03/2009 lows. The range between 32.50 and 57.25 has been thoroughly traded and after a higher-low (black rectangle), the index looks to have enough support now to seek business at higher levels.

Component stocks of $BKX include BAC, BBT, BK, C, CBSH, CFR, CMA, COF, FITB, HBAN, JPM, KEY, MI, MTB, NTRS, PBCT, PNC, RF, SNV, STI, STT, USB, WFC, and ZION.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average15215.25123.570.82%
S&P 500 Index1650.34 16.57 1.01%
Nasdaq Composite3462.60 23.81 0.69%
Nasdaq 1002996.04 13.95 0.47%
Russell 2000985.95 12.16 1.25%
Spot Gold1428.38-10.82-0.75%
Crude Oil94.36-1.05-1.10%
NYSE Overall Volume3,432,066Kn/a 20.16%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,793,288Kn/a 12.16%
NYSE Breadth3.65 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth2.73 : 1positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio78.50
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio73.21
NYSE Advancers/Decliners1051
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners988
NYSE Trin0.57
Nasdaq Trin0.88
$VIX12.770.22
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Wednesday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1648.00 3002.25
Point of Control 1645.00 3000.00
Value Area Low 1643.00 2990.50
R3 1671.253032.50
R2 1660.003018.75
R1 1654.003007.00
Pivot 1642.752993.25
S1 1636.752981.50
S2 1625.502967.75
S3 1619.502956.00


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


A higher close by the broad market today will tigger our overbought signal. Yesterday, twenty three of twenty five ShadowTrader Sectors closed higher. $DJUSHB remains overbought having closed higher for the nine consecutive days. $DJUSHC and $DJUSCA have both closed higher for six consecutive days and XBD has closed higher for five consecutive days.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 05/15/2013

08:30 am EST - Producer Price Index
08:30 pm EST - Empire State Mfg Survey
09:00 am EST - Treasury International Capital
09:15 am EST - Industiral Production
10:00 am EST - Housing Market Index
10:30 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
Reporting earnings today: CSC, CSCO, DE, M, MPEL, SKX


Thursday - 05/16/2013

08:30 am EST - Consumer Price Index
08:30 am EST - Housing Starts
08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
10:00 am EST - Philadelphia Fed Survey
Reporting earnings today: ADSK, FLO, JWN, KSS, SINA, WMT


Friday - 05/17/2013

09:55 am EST - Consumer Sentiment
Reporting earnings today: DCI, SSI



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
VRSN 50.00 52.00 Please see Thursday's ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader
ROK 92.00 93.75 Approaching first test of 52 week high

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


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OPEN POSITIONS - week of 05/13/13 - 05/17/13
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
SPYshort 10005/14164.90 n/a n/a 160.00168.00 open 165.23(0.33)($33)$16,490
  Shorted at top of ascending channel on daily chart
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 05/13/13 - 05/17/13
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
None
TOTALS: 100 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $16,490

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content ? 2013 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 5/14/2013 10:12:07 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - Sell short SPY

May 14, 2013

Stock: SPY S&P SPDR
Action: Sell stock short
Shares: 100
Entry: 164.90
Stop: 168.00
Target: 160.00

Trade Explanation: We are selling short the broad market at the channel resistance of the S&P cash which is currently at 1648.  We may add to this position if there is further stenght in this area.


ShadowTraderPro

Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled, we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.

*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors.****

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 5/14/2013 11:07:59 AM | 0 Comments