ShadowTrader Swing Trader rss
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 11.21.14
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Neutral. Huge range in October monthly bar which closed as a hammer at all time highs. This could be seen as a "hanging man" when we have a hammer at the top of a move which is a bearish signal.

WEEKLY - Bullish to Neutral. Small body candle on this timeframe. Could indicate trend getting tired.

DAILY - Bullish. Gap down and large fade almost to all time high. Liquidation breaks and gaps continue to be bought up.

Good morning traders. Like the broad market, the Insurance Index ($DJSINS) is refusing to retrace lower. Please observe the chart below.

$DJSINS has consolidated just above prior highs for the past two weeks. If it is true that the market does not give traders this much time to take profits, then $DJSINS must be setting up to resolve higher.

We are watching components of the industry for long trade opportunities including AIG, MET, PRU, ACE, TRV, ALL, AFL, CB, HIG, and PFG.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17719.00+33.27+0.19%
S&P 500 Index2052.75+4.03+0.20%
Nasdaq Composite4701.86+26.15+0.56%
Nasdaq 1004242.09+19.42+0.46%
Russell 20001170.75+13.06+1.13%
Spot Gold1190.70-2.90-0.24%
Crude Oil75.82+1.37+1.84%
NYSE Overall Volume3,095,146Kn/a-8.21%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,651,407Kn/a+1.80%
NYSE Breadth2.01 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth2.73 : 1positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio66.83
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio73.19
NYSE Advancers/Decliners980
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners878
NYSE Trin0.96
Nasdaq Trin0.73
$VIX13.58-0.38
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Friday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 2052.00 4245.75
Point of Control 2051.00 4242.75
Value Area Low 2046.50 4228.25
R3 2072.674304.50
R2 2062.334275.50
R1 2057.174260.25
Pivot 2046.834231.25
S1 2041.674216.00
S2 2031.334187.00
S3 2026.174171.75


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Sixteen ShadowTrader Sectors closed higher yesterday while nine ended lower. No sectors are overbought or oversold at this time.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 11/21/2014

No economic data scheduled for release
Reporting earnings today: ANN, BERY, FL, HIBB, SIRO


Monday - 11/24/2014

10:30 am EST - Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Reporting earnings today: BIG, QIHU, PANW, WDAY


Tuesday - 11/25/14

08:30 am EST - GDP
09:00 am EST - S&P Case-Shiller HPI
10:00 am EST - Consumer Confidence
Reporting earnings today: ADI, BWS, CPB, CTRP, DSW, GLNG, HPQ, SIG, TIF, VNET



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 11/17/14 - 11/21/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
TRUElong 25011/1718.27 n/a n/a 22.0017.10 open 18.05(0.22)($55)$4,568
  Reversal back to top of range on daily chart
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 11/17/14 - 11/21/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
LENlong 25011/0744.4911/1745.3350.5043.40closed n/a0.84$210$11,123
  Exited trade on move under recent consolidation
URIlong 7511/03110.4911/17113.05120.00112.30closed n/a2.56$192$8,287
  Cut trade on failure to follow through higher off prior day's strong close
PHMlong 32511/0619.5711/1721.2824.6319.57closed n/a1.71$556$6,360
  Sold stock for 8.69% gain
SMCIshort 25011/2033.0011/2033.2529.8135.05closed n/a(0.25)($63)$8,250
  Scratched trade
TOTALS: 250 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $4,568

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/20/2014 11:10:17 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - SMCI Cover Short
November 20, 2014
 
Company: Super Micro Computer, Inc. - SMCI
Action: Cover Short
Entry Price: 33.01
Shares: 250
Exit Price: 33.25
Stop: n/a
Target: n/a
 
 
Trade Explanation: We have Coverd our Short in SMCI.  Moves lower are not sticking.  Market still not ready to short.
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/20/2014 12:06:09 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - SMCI Sell Stock Short
November 20, 2014
 
Company: Super Micro Computer, Inc. - SMCI
Action: Sell Stock Short
Entry Price: 33.01
Shares: 250
Exit Price: n/a
Stop: 35.05
Target: 29.81
 
 
Trade Explanation: We have sold SMCI short per the setup profiled in today's ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader.
 
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/20/2014 9:36:45 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 11.20.14
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Neutral. Huge range in October monthly bar which closed as a hammer at all time highs. This could be seen as a "hanging man" when we have a hammer at the top of a move which is a bearish signal.

WEEKLY - Bullish to Neutral. Small body candle on this timeframe. Could indicate trend getting tired.

DAILY - Neutral to Bullish. Market corrected a bit yesterday, but closed above high of balance.

Good morning traders. Today we have listed two short trade ideas in the Bulls and Bears where the stocks are just beginning to rollover from recent highs. One of these is Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI). Please observe the chart below.

SMCI broke its ascending trendline yesterday leaving behind the high of an approximate 55.0% move up from the October lows.

We're looking for follow through lower and for the correction to carry the stock down to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level around 29.81 which also ties in with support of prior highs (magenta line).

As a follow up to yesterday's Looking Ahead section, the broad market regained some lost ground from early trade yesterday, however daily market internals had no improvement to speak of. Until they begin to show some life, we will be cautious to initiate new longs.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17685.73-2.09-0.01%
S&P 500 Index2048.72-3.08-0.15%
Nasdaq Composite4675.71-26.73-0.57%
Nasdaq 1004222.66-19.52-0.46%
Russell 20001157.68-12.60-1.08%
Spot Gold1193.60-3.20-0.27%
Crude Oil74.45-0.14-0.19%
NYSE Overall Volume3,3718,05Kn/a-0.31%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,622,228Kn/a-0.86%
NYSE Breadth1.66 : 1negative
Nasdaq Breadth2.42 : 1negative
NYSE Breadth Ratio37.54
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio29.24
NYSE Advancers/Decliners-737
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners-1146
NYSE Trin1.02
Nasdaq Trin0.96
$VIX13.960.10
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Thursday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 2047.00 4230.50
Point of Control 2044.00 4223.00
Value Area Low 2041.00 4214.50
R3 2065.334275.17
R2 2057.924257.08
R1 2052.584240.42
Pivot 2045.174222.33
S1 2039.834205.67
S2 2032.424187.58
S3 2027.084170.92


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Six ShadowTrader Sectors closed lower yesterday while nineteen ended higher. Those that closed higher were $DJUSRT, XNG, XOI, CEX, UTY, and $DJSINS. No sectors are overbought or oversold at this time.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 11/20/14

08:30 am EST - Consumer Price Index
08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
09:45 am EST - PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
10:00 am EST - Philadelphia Fed Survey
10:00 am EST - Existing Home Sales
Reporting earnings today: BBY, GME, GPS,  JKS, MBLY


Friday - 11/21/2014

No economic data scheduled for release
Reporting earnings today: BERY, FL


Monday - 11/24/2014

10:30 am EST - Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Reporting earnings today: PANW, QIHU, WDAY



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
SMCI 33.12 35.05 Please see today's Looking Ahead section
IP 54.06 55.23 Entry on undercut of Wednesday's low

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 11/17/14 - 11/21/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
TRUElong 25011/1718.27 n/a n/a 22.0017.10 open 17.58(0.69)($173)$4,568
  Tightened stop up to 17.10
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 11/17/14 - 11/21/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
LENlong 25011/0744.4911/1745.3350.5043.40closed n/a0.84$210$11,123
  Exited trade on move under recent consolidation
URIlong 7511/03110.4911/17113.05120.00112.30closed n/a2.56$192$8,287
  Cut trade on failure to follow through higher off prior day's strong close
PHMlong 32511/0619.5711/1721.2824.6319.57closed n/a1.71$556$6,360
  Sold stock for 8.69% gain
TOTALS: 250 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $4,568

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/19/2014 10:19:16 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - PHM Sell the Stock
November 19, 2014
 
Company: Pulte Group Inc. - (PHM)
Action: Sell the Stock
Entry Price: 19.57
Shares: 325
Exit Price: 21.28
Stop: n/a
Target: n/a
 
Trade Explanation: We sold PHM to lock in a 8.69% gain.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/19/2014 10:02:16 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - TRUE Move the Stop
November 19, 2014
 
Company: True Care Inc.  - (TRUE)
Action: Move the Stop
Entry Price: 18.36
Shares: 250
Exit Price: n/a
Stop: 17.10
Target: 22.00
 
Trade Explanation:  We moved our stop on True to just under the short term ascending trendline.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/19/2014 9:39:54 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 11.19.14
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Neutral. Huge range in October monthly bar which closed as a hammer at all time highs. This could be seen as a "hanging man" when we have a hammer at the top of a move which is a bearish signal.

WEEKLY - Bullish to Neutral. Small body candle on this timeframe. Could indicate trend getting tired.

DAILY - Bullish. Not a particularly strong close but day one of a breakout from large consolidation.

Good morning traders. It was great to see the S&P 500 Index break out from, and close above the six day trading range yesterday. However, unless the charts below become more bullish in the near term, a move higher by the broad market won't be sustainable.

There has been some divergence between the S&P 500 Index (SPY) and our proprietary tracking of broad market money flow which became more pronounced yesterday. If this trend continues, the medium term indication is for stocks to trade back lower.

NYSE New Highs are plotted on the top chart against the lower candlestick chart of the s&P 500 Index (SPX). Notice the lower-highs (yellow shade) and the lower-lows (red shade) made by NYSE New-Highs during the recent period of appreciation by SPX. In order for yesterday's breakout to continue higher, more stocks need to be moving to new highs.

Use caution initiating new longs by either decreasing size or tightening stops.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17687.82+40.07+0.23%
S&P 500 Index2051.80+10.48+0.51%
Nasdaq Composite4702.44+31.44+0.67%
Nasdaq 1004242.18+28.39+0.67%
Russell 20001170.28+6.05+0.52%
Spot Gold1196.80+13.30+1.12%
Crude Oil74.59-1.05-1.39%
NYSE Overall Volume3,382,453Kn/a+8.64%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,636,331Kn/a-2.42%
NYSE Breadth1.99 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth1.98 : 1positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio66.53
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio66.50
NYSE Advancers/Decliners653
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners515
NYSE Trin0.77
Nasdaq Trin0.75
$VIX13.86-0.13
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Wednesday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 2051.25 4247.50
Point of Control 2050.25 4245.00
Value Area Low 2044.25 4232.50
R3 2070.334286.58
R2 2062.174267.67
R1 2055.334252.83
Pivot 2047.174233.92
S1 2040.334219.08
S2 2032.174200.17
S3 2025.334185.33


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


ShadowTrader Sectors were mixed for the third straight day yesterday. Ten sectors closed higher while fifteen ended lower. $DJUSBK flagged an oversold signal with its fifth consecutive close lower. No other sectors, nor the broad market, are overbought or oversold at this time.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 11/19/2014

08:30 am EST - Housing Starts
10:30 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
02:00 pm EST - FOMC Minutes
Reporting earnings today: CPA CRM CSTM JMEI LB LOW MNK SJM TGT WSM


Thursday - 11/20/14

08:30 am EST - Consumer Price Index
08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
09:45 am EST - PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
10:00 am EST - Philadelphia Fed Survey
10:00 am EST - Existing Home Sales
Reporting earnings today: BBY, DCI GME, GPS,  JKS, MBLY


Friday - 11/21/2014

No economic data scheduled for release
Reporting earnings today: BERY, FL



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 11/17/14 - 11/21/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
PHMlong 32511/0619.57 n/a n/a 24.6319.57 open 21.31.73$562$6,360
  Strong breakout from short term price range
TRUElong 25011/1718.27 n/a n/a 22.0016.40 open 17.42(0.85)($213)$4,568
  Low volume pullback
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 11/17/14 - 11/21/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
LENlong 25011/0744.4911/1745.3350.5043.40closed n/a0.84$210$11,123
  Exited trade on move under recent consolidation
URIlong 7511/03110.4911/17113.05120.00112.30closed n/a2.56$192$8,287
  Cut trade on failure to follow through higher off prior day's strong close
TOTALS: 575 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $10,928

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/18/2014 9:07:02 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 11.18.14
Swing Trader


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The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Neutral. Huge range in October monthly bar which closed as a hammer at all time highs. This could be seen as a "hanging man" when we have a hammer at the top of a move which is a bearish signal.

WEEKLY - Bullish to Neutral. Small body candle on this timeframe. Could indicate trend getting tired.

DAILY - Bullish to Neutral. Continued consolidation at highs with daily small liquidation breaks that are strengthening the market by removing potential sellers.

Good morning traders. In the 11/14/14 ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader, we posted a chart showing a strengthening NASDAQ Cumulative AD Line. Unfortunately, there has been no follow through higher. Please observe the chart below.

Apple, Inc. (AAPL) managed to close lower for the first time in over a week. Further downside by the stock should cause the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)) to trade lower as well. Without AAPL pulling it higher, the index does not have many other stocks providing strength as evidenced by the declining NASDAQ Cumulative AD Line (red line) versus the hovering QQQ (green rectangle) on the chart above. This type of market structure will not continue to support QQQ at these higher prices.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17647.75+13.01+0.07%
S&P 500 Index2041.32+1.50+0.07%
Nasdaq Composite4671.00-17.53-0.37%
Nasdaq 1004213.78-11.19-0.27%
Russell 20001164.23-9.57-0.82%
Spot Gold1183.50-4.40-0.37%
Crude Oil75.64-0.29-0.38%
NYSE Overall Volume3,113,514Kn/a-2.56%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,676,873Kn/a-2.82%
NYSE Breadth1.01 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth1.73 : 1negative
NYSE Breadth Ratio50.36
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio36.69
NYSE Advancers/Decliners-348
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners-849
NYSE Trin0.79
Nasdaq Trin0.89
$VIX13.990.68
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Tuesday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 2039.50 4222.25
Point of Control 2038.50 4210.25
Value Area Low 2034.50 4205.75
R3 2052.334260.33
R2 2046.424242.42
R1 2043.084227.33
Pivot 2037.174209.42
S1 2033.834194.33
S2 2027.924176.42
S3 2024.584161.33


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


ShadowTrader Sectors were mixed for the third straight day yesterday. Ten sectors closed higher while fifteen ended lower. $DJUSBK flagged an oversold signal with its fifth consecutive close lower. No other sectors, nor the broad market, are overbought or oversold at this time.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 11/18/2014

08:30 am EST - PPI-FD
10:00 am EST - Housing Market Index
04:00 pm EST - Treasury International Capital
Reporting earnings today: DKS, HD, MDT, POST, TJX, VIPS


Wednesday - 11/19/2014

08:30 am EST - Housing Starts
10:30 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
02:00 pm EST - FOMC Minutes
Reporting earnings today: CPA, CRM, CSTM, LB, LOW, MNK, SJM, TGT, WSM


Thursday - 11/20/14

08:30 am EST - Consumer Price Index
08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
09:45 am EST - PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
10:00 am EST - Philadelphia Fed Survey
10:00 am EST - Existing Home Sales
Reporting earnings today: BBY, GME, GPS,  JKS, MBLY



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
X 36.42 34.42 Please Monday's ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader
JNJ 109.50 107.00 Similar pattern to $DJUSHC daily chart
AFL 59.52 58.44 Please Friday's ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 11/17/14 - 11/21/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
PHMlong 32511/0619.57 n/a n/a 24.6319.57 open 20.971.4$455$6,360
  Strong close near top of short term price range
TRUElong 25011/1718.27 n/a n/a 22.0016.40 open 17.6(0.67)($168)$4,568
  Entered on move out of recent price range
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 11/17/14 - 11/21/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
LENlong 25011/0744.4911/1745.3350.5043.40closed n/a0.84$210$11,123
  Exited trade on move under recent consolidation
URIlong 7511/03110.4911/17113.05120.00112.30closed n/a2.56$192$8,287
  Cut trade on failure to follow through higher off prior day's strong close
TOTALS: 575 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $10,928

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/17/2014 8:37:32 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - URI Sell the Stock
November 17, 2014
 
Company: Uniited Rentals  - (URI)
Action: Sell the Stcok
Entry Price: 110.49
Shares: 75
Exit Price: 113.05
Stop: n/a
Target: n/a
 
Trade Explanation:  We have closed our long position for a gain in URI on lack of follow through higher from Friday's bullish price bar.  We are now flat the stock.
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/17/2014 11:14:05 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - LEN Sell the Stock
November 17, 2014
 
Company: Lennar Corp. - (LEN)
Action: Sell the Stock
Entry Price: 44.49
Shares: 250
Exit Price: 45.33
Stop: n/a
Target: n/a
 
Trade Explanation: We have sold LEN for a gain as the stock has broken the bottom of the four day triangle.  We still have home builder exposure with PHM.
 
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 11/17/2014 11:00:24 AM | 0 Comments