ShadowTrader Swing Trader rss
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - ACXM Buy the Stock
September 2, 2014
 
Company: Acxiom Corp.  - (ACXM)
Action: Buy the Stock
Entry Price: 18.84
Shares: 375
Exit Price n/a
Stop: 17.57
Target: 21.40
 
Trade Explanation:  We have bought ACXM on the trade setup illustrated in today's ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader.
 
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 9/2/2014 9:53:46 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 09.02.14
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Bullish. Large body candle with close at high indicates that market pushes higher in September.

WEEKLY - Bullish. Fourth week of gains closing at all time highs on SPX.

DAILY - Bullish. Market appears to want to break out further over 2,000 level after testing here a few times and holding gains.

Good morning traders. One of four long trade ideas listed in today's Bulls and Bears section is Acxiom Corp. (ACXM). The setup is illustrated below.

The orange arrow on the chart marks the higher low by ACXM just prior to the consolidation that has taken place over the last nine trading days. This length of consolidation above a higher low is one clue the stock may be done going lower. It is also possible the stock will test the descending trendline (magenta) to decide its next larger price direction.

We see this setup as an opportunity to play the "fill" between our entry and the descending trendline (blue circle). If our analysis is incorrect, the protective stop placed 1.5x the Average True Range Measure below the entry will take us out of the trade.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17098.45+18.88+0.11%
S&P 500 Index2003.37+6.63+0.33%
Nasdaq Composite4580.27+22.57+0.50%
Nasdaq 1004082.55+16.28+0.40%
Russell 20001174.35+8.40+0.72%
Spot Gold1286.04-4.36-0.34%
Crude Oil95.81+1.26+1.33%
NYSE Overall Volume2,219,085Kn/a-2.10%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,313,447Kn/a+1.23%
NYSE Breadth2.63 : 1positive
Nasdaq Breadth3.48 : 1positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio72.49
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio77.66
NYSE Advancers/Decliners1248
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners1053
NYSE Trin0.91
Nasdaq Trin0.68
$VIX11.98-0.07
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Tuesday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 2001.50 4083.25
Point of Control 2000.50 4077.25
Value Area Low 1997.00 4072.75
R3 2014.254111.17
R2 2008.004097.33
R1 2004.754089.67
Pivot 1998.504075.83
S1 1995.254068.17
S2 1989.004054.33
S3 1985.754046.67


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Twenty three of twenty five ShadowTrader Sectors closed higher on Friday. The two sectors that ended lower were $DJUSCA and XAL. DJUSIT and XTC have both entered overbought territory. Each has closed higher five consecutive days.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 09/02/14

09:45 am EST - PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 am EST - ISM Mfg Index
10:00 am EST - Construction Spending
Reporting earnings today: CONN


Wednesday - 09/03/2014

Motor Vehicle Sales
08:15 am EST - ADP Employment Report
10:00 am EST - Factory Orders
02:00 pm EST - Beige Book
Reporting earnings today: HRB, NAV, TOL


Thursday - 09/04/2014

08:30 am EST - International Trade
08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims
08:30 am EST - Productivity and Costs
10:00 am EST - ISM Non-Mfg Index
11:00 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
Reporting earnings today: AMBA, CIEN, FNSR, JOY, PAY



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
THRX 23.80 21.95 Please see the ShadowTrader Weekend Update
ACXM 18.79 18.14 Please see today's Looking Ahead section
PCLN 1213.80 1194.00 Please see the ShadowTrader Video Weekly
BPOP 29.05 27.30 Nearing ascending trendline from 07/23/12

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 09/01/14 - 09/05/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
ATHNlong 10008/25135.41 n/a n/a 166.00138.95 open 144.449.03$903$13,541
  Consolidating at highs of recent breakout
WFMlong 30008/2739.07 n/a n/a 47.3038.68 open 39.140.07$21$11,721
  Tight trading range inside breakout price bar
THRXlong 32508/2923.55 n/a n/a 27.0021.95 open 23.560.01$3$7,654
  Poised to break into area of limited resistance
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 008/25/14 - 08/29/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
Nlong 25008/1883.4708/2787.0492.4582.90closed n/a3.57$893$20,868
  Took gains around prior high
AEGRlong 15008/2731.7508/2831.0146.0031.02closed n/a(0.74)($111)$4,763
  Trailing stop triggered
LULUlong 22508/2040.1108/2840.1146.3540.11closed n/a(0)($0)$9,025
  Trailing stop triggered at breakeven
USOlong 75008/2835.2708/2935.5536.9034.60closed n/a0.28$210$26,453
  Sold for quick gain ahead of three day holiday weekend
TOTALS: 725 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $32,916

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 9/1/2014 8:43:16 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - THRX Buy the Stock
 
August 29, 2014
 
Company: Theravance, Inc.  - THRX
Action: Buy the Stock
Entry Price: 23.55
Shares: 325
Exit Price n/a
Stop: 21.95
Target: 27.00
 
Trade Explanation:  We have bought THRX at is moves out of recent consolidation and off a higher low.
 
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/29/2014 11:07:54 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - USO Sell the ETF
August 29, 2014
 
Company: Crude Oil ETF  - (USO)
Action: Sell the ETF
Entry Price: 35.27
Shares: 750
Exit Price 35.55
Stop: n/a
Target: n/a
 
Trade Explanation:  We have sold our position in USO for a quick gain.  Although crude oil may continue higher,
we have chosen the prudent path into the three day weekend.
 
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/29/2014 10:16:25 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - LULU Trailing Stop Triggered
August 29, 2014
 
Company: Lululemon Athletica, Inc. - (LULU)
Action: Trailing Stop Triggered
Entry Price: 40.11
Shares: 225
Price n/a
Stop: 40.11
Target: n/a
 
Trade Explanation:  Our trailing stop in LULU was triggered.  Our shares were sold at 40.11 (breakeven). We
are now flat the stock.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/29/2014 9:55:48 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - WFM Move the Stop
August 29, 2014
 
Company: Whole Foods Mkt, Inc. - (WFM)
Action: Move the Stop
Entry Price: 39.07
Shares: 300
Price n/a
Stop: 38.68
Target: 47.30
 
Trade Explanation: We have moved the stop on WFM up to 38.68 which is just under yesterday's low and the shorter term
ascending trendline from 08/21 lows.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/29/2014 9:52:50 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader 08.29.14
Swing Trader


You can get real-time alerts to your phone for this advisory by texting "follow st_swing" (without the quote marks) to 40404 on your cellphone. No twitter account is necessary.

To stop receiving alerts, simply text "off st_swing" (no quotes) to 40404

The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

To get the most out of your subscription, please read our Swing Trader User's Guide

If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.

Looking Ahead

Market Outlook - Check here daily for the current S&P 500 Index Monthly, Weekly, and Daily bias.

MONTHLY - Toppy. Not all out bearish on this timeframe but higher high and close on low of July bar.

WEEKLY - Bullish. Continuation higher from early August reversal, close above previous all-time high.

DAILY - Bullish. Market holding up well near highs as early gap down liquidation break is retraced easily with a close at the highs of the day.

Good morning traders. How long will the S&P 500 Index (SPX) stay in grind mode higher? One indication is discussed below.

We've plotted the thinkorswim implied volatility study under the daily chart of SPX.

Grinding markets, meaning those that move around 7-12 SPX points a day with little two way trade, occur most often to the upside. The low level of two way trade causes volatility to remain low. Therefore, low volatility is a characteristic of a market in grind mode.

One piece of evidence that a grind higher might be coming to an end is when implied volatility moves above 0.13 (magenta line).

For instance, between 05/15 and 07/16, the market moved higher in grinding fashion causing shorts to cry out "why isn't the market doing what I think it should? Manipulation!!".

This move did not end until implied volatility rose above 0.13. First, with a warning (red arrow) followed by the real thing (red circle).

Since 08/15, SPX has once again been in grind mode and as of yesterday's close, implied volatility remains below 0.13.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average17079.57-42.44-0.25%
S&P 500 Index1996.74-3.38-0.17%
Nasdaq Composite4557.69-11.92-0.26%
Nasdaq 1004066.27-6.90-0.17%
Russell 20001165.95-6.76-0.58%
Spot Gold1290.40+5.10+0.40%
Crude Oil94.55+0.78+0.83%
NYSE Overall Volume2,266,638Kn/a-1.17%
Nasdaq Overall Volume1,297,480Kn/a-4.9%
NYSE Breadth1.72 : 1negative
Nasdaq Breadth1.18 : 1negative
NYSE Breadth Ratio36.71
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio45.85
NYSE Advancers/Decliners-481
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners-815
NYSE Trin1.25
Nasdaq Trin0.62
$VIX12.050.27
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Friday
 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
ES
NQ
Value Area High 1996.50 4071.00
Point of Control 1996.00 4066.00
Value Area Low 1991.50 4060.50
R3 2008.834094.67
R2 2002.924083.58
R1 1999.834076.67
Pivot 1993.924065.58
S1 1990.834058.67
S2 1984.924047.58
S3 1981.834040.67


ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores

The ShadowTrader Sector Trend Score matrix is a proprietary method of assigning values to twenty five sectors that are a representative cross-section of the market as a whole. The heat map in the trend score column defines the current strength or weakness of that sector using a proprietary weighting formula. Sectors bolded in green and red are the two sectors that experienced the largest absolute gain and loss in trend score over the prior day. We strongly urge subscribers to read the full explanation of the meaning and calculation of the trend scores in the Swing Trader User's Guide.


Nine ShadowTrader Sectors closed higher on Thursday while sixteen closed lower. The mixed day relieved some overbought pressure so that no individual sectors, nor the broad market are flagging overbought conditions.

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:


Today - 08/29/2014

08:30 am EST - Personal Income and Outlays
09:45 am EST - Chicago PMI
09:55 am EST - Consumer Sentiment
Reporting earnings today: BIG


Monday - 09/01/2014

U.S. Holiday Labor Day - All Markets Closed
Reporting earnings today: No stocks priced $20 or higher with average daily volume of 500k or more reporting earnings.


Tuesday - 09/02/14

09:45 am EST - PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 am EST - ISM Mfg Index
10:00 am EST - Construction Spending
Reporting earnings today: CONN



Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via MyTrade posting.

Long Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

Short Ideas

 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
None

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via posting to MyTrade or text message to your phone. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.


To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide


OPEN POSITIONS - week of 08/25/14 - 08/29/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
LULUlong 22508/2040.11 n/a n/a 46.3540.11 open 40.590.48$108$9,025
  Gap down
ATHNlong 10008/25135.41 n/a n/a 166.00138.95 open 144.148.73$873$13,541
  Showed high relative strength on Thursday
WFMlong 30008/2739.07 n/a n/a 47.3037.80 open 39.1850.12$36$11,721
  Bought 100 more shares at 39.01
USOlong 75008/2835.27 n/a n/a 36.9034.60 open 35.320.05$38$26,453
  Entered on breakout from consolidation at long term ascending trendline
CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 08/25/14 - 08/29/14
sym dir size date
entered
entry
price
date
closed
exit
price
target stop status mark
to
market
p&l
points
p&l
capital
capital
commit
Nlong 25008/1883.4708/2787.0492.4582.90closed n/a3.57$893$20,868
  Took gains around prior high
AEGRlong 15008/2731.7508/2831.0146.0031.02closed n/a(0.74)($111)$4,763
  Trailing stop triggered
TOTALS: 1375 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $60,740

Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2014

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2013

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2012

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2011

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2010

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009

Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008

All content © 2014 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.

ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/28/2014 10:32:34 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - USO Buy the ETF
 
August 28, 2014
 
Company: Crude Oil ETF  - (USO)
Action: Buy the ETF
Entry Price: 35.27
Shares: 750
Exit Price n/a
Stop: 34.60
Target: 36.90
 
Trade Explanation:  We have bought 750 shares in the crude oil ETF USO.  This trade set up was illustrated in today's ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader.
 
 
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/28/2014 2:07:33 PM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - AEGR Trailing Stop Hit
 
August 28, 2014
 
Company: Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.  - (AEGR)
Action: Trailing Stop Hit
Entry Price: 31.75
Shares: 200
Exit Price 31.01
Stop: 31.02
Target: 46.00
 
Trade Explanation:  Our trailing stop in AEGR was triggered.  We are out of the trade for a 0.73 point loss.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/28/2014 11:06:39 AM | 0 Comments
ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader Advisory - WFM Add to Position
August 28, 2014
 
 
 
Company: Whole Foods Mkt, Inc. - (WFM)
Action: Add to Position
Entry Price: 39.10
Shares: 100
Price 39.01
Stop: 37.80
Target: 47.30
 
Trade Explanation:  We have bought 100 more shares of WFM at 39.01.This brings our position up to 300 total shares
at an average price of 39.07.  The Stop and Target apply to all 300 shares.
 
ShadowTraderPro
 
 
Please note: All emails are price sensitive. Therefore, all
recommendations, unless otherwise noted, are applicable
for 'DAY' orders only, not good-till-cancelled. If a
recommendation cannot be filled,we may choose to resend
the email the following day along with any modifications.
 
*****Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all
investors. ******
ShadowTrader Swing Trader | 8/28/2014 10:54:14 AM | 0 Comments